DSMok1
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Anybody up for some stats?
I am using a new algorithm this year, not just the Pomeroy Ratings. A good guide to stats and the NCAA tournament is available at Wired Playbook.
The method I am using looks at 2 more variables (besides simply adjusting for opposition efficiency like Pomeroy). I ran a regression using the game number and the opposition strength as predictors. This allows us to see "hot" and "cold" teams, and teams that "beat up on the little teams" vs. teams that "play to the level of their competition.
What do these numbers mean? Well, for starters, these are all efficiency differentials. So Syracuse, for instance, started this season as a +33.8 efficiency (points/100 Poss) team. Every game, they have dropped 0.16 in efficiency--they are somewhat "cold". However, the last number is how much they "play to the level of their competition". This number is how much better they would play against an extremely good team. That helps them a LOT in this tournament.
Here are the 64 teams through that lens:
Here's a list of the hottest teams:
Of course, most of the hottest teams aren't very good--they won their conference tournaments to get in.
There are a few to note, however--Maryland is really hot. So is Pittsburgh. OSU is hot, and Gonzaga and Kentucky are hot.
The cold teams:
Obviously, Texas is the coldest. The started the season REALLY hot. Interestingly, Kansas shows up as fading somewhat also... other than Texas, though, the cold teams aren't as cold as the hot teams are hot.
More coming in the next post...
I am using a new algorithm this year, not just the Pomeroy Ratings. A good guide to stats and the NCAA tournament is available at Wired Playbook.
The method I am using looks at 2 more variables (besides simply adjusting for opposition efficiency like Pomeroy). I ran a regression using the game number and the opposition strength as predictors. This allows us to see "hot" and "cold" teams, and teams that "beat up on the little teams" vs. teams that "play to the level of their competition.
What do these numbers mean? Well, for starters, these are all efficiency differentials. So Syracuse, for instance, started this season as a +33.8 efficiency (points/100 Poss) team. Every game, they have dropped 0.16 in efficiency--they are somewhat "cold". However, the last number is how much they "play to the level of their competition". This number is how much better they would play against an extremely good team. That helps them a LOT in this tournament.
Here are the 64 teams through that lens:
Code:
Team BaseMar Season OppVar
Syracuse 33.8 -0.16 9.2
Duke 36.2 -0.09 0.4
Kansas 40.5 -0.37 3.2
Baylor 25.9 0.12 4.3
Northern Iowa 16.1 0.43 4.9
Gonzaga 8.4 0.56 13.5
Kansas St. 26.6 -0.01 5.6
Ohio St. 27.0 -0.06 8.6
Georgetown 20.5 0.37 -2.0
Maryland 15.3 0.76 -8.2
Cornell 8.1 0.43 11.0
Kentucky 20.9 0.50 -7.5
Butler 12.9 0.35 7.1
Wisconsin 27.4 0.20 -6.8
Purdue 27.6 -0.09 2.3
West Virginia 27.5 -0.09 -0.3
Pittsburgh 8.0 0.80 -2.7
Temple 24.3 -0.05 2.2
Washington 8.7 0.58 3.4
Oklahoma St. 8.5 0.67 -0.3
Clemson 16.9 0.50 -8.0
Marquette 28.7 -0.24 1.6
Richmond 15.2 0.14 5.5
New Mexico 24.9 -0.35 8.7
San Diego St. 4.8 0.78 -1.9
Notre Dame 17.0 0.01 8.4
Villanova 27.0 -0.16 -2.2
Missouri 25.3 -0.19 2.8
Utah St. 13.0 0.58 -6.4
Nevada Las Vega 18.5 0.07 2.6
Texas A&M 22.1 -0.06 2.1
California 27.0 -0.04 -6.3
Florida St. 25.3 0.07 -10.0
Georgia Tech 20.8 -0.05 2.5
Wake Forest 21.2 -0.12 2.8
Florida 20.0 -0.19 7.6
Louisville 20.0 0.01 -1.4
Brigham Young 23.2 0.03 -5.9
Vanderbilt 23.1 -0.22 2.0
Xavier 21.1 0.09 -6.7
Minnesota 20.4 0.08 -8.1
Texas El Paso 9.9 0.35 -0.1
Texas 37.0 -0.71 -3.0
Michigan St. 20.5 0.09 -8.9
Tennessee 22.5 -0.24 0.8
Murray St. 13.4 0.10 -0.5
Vermont -5.3 0.58 4.1
St. Mary's 22.3 -0.34 -0.3
Houston 2.4 0.37 2.3
Montana 9.3 0.01 3.9
Ohio 2.4 0.25 4.9
Old Dominion 24.1 -0.16 -9.3
New Mexico St. -5.0 0.63 2.7
Siena 16.5 -0.19 -1.2
East Tennessee 2.3 0.24 1.7
Lehigh -14.3 0.79 4.5
Wofford -2.3 0.43 0.2
UC Santa Barbar -6.2 0.43 4.2
Sam Houston St. 18.7 -0.56 -2.7
Morgan St. 6.9 -0.18 3.7
North Texas -0.2 0.08 3.3
Robert Morris -13.9 0.60 0.8
Oakland 0.7 0.06 -5.1
Arkansas PB -9.7 0.02 7.3
Here's a list of the hottest teams:
Code:
Team BaseMar Season OppVar
Pittsburgh 8.0 0.80 -2.7
Lehigh -14.3 0.79 4.5
San Diego St. 4.8 0.78 -1.9
Maryland 15.3 0.76 -8.2
Oklahoma St. 8.5 0.67 -0.3
New Mexico St. -5.0 0.63 2.7
Robert Morris -13.9 0.60 0.8
Vermont -5.3 0.58 4.1
Washington 8.7 0.58 3.4
Utah St. 13.0 0.58 -6.4
Gonzaga 8.4 0.56 13.5
Kentucky 20.9 0.50 -7.5
Clemson 16.9 0.50 -8.0
Wofford -2.3 0.43 0.2
Cornell 8.1 0.43 11.0
Of course, most of the hottest teams aren't very good--they won their conference tournaments to get in.
There are a few to note, however--Maryland is really hot. So is Pittsburgh. OSU is hot, and Gonzaga and Kentucky are hot.
The cold teams:
Code:
Team BaseMar Season OppVar
Texas 37.0 -0.71 -3.0
Sam Houston St. 18.7 -0.56 -2.7
Kansas 40.5 -0.37 3.2
New Mexico 24.9 -0.35 8.7
St. Mary's 22.3 -0.34 -0.3
Tennessee 22.5 -0.24 0.8
Marquette 28.7 -0.24 1.6
Vanderbilt 23.1 -0.22 2.0
Florida 20.0 -0.19 7.6
Siena 16.5 -0.19 -1.2
Missouri 25.3 -0.19 2.8
Morgan St. 6.9 -0.18 3.7
Old Dominion 24.1 -0.16 -9.3
Syracuse 33.8 -0.16 9.2
Villanova 27.0 -0.16 -2.2
Obviously, Texas is the coldest. The started the season REALLY hot. Interestingly, Kansas shows up as fading somewhat also... other than Texas, though, the cold teams aren't as cold as the hot teams are hot.
More coming in the next post...