Rudy Gay traded to Toronto

[thebigabd]

Gay to Toronto
Calderon and Ed Davis to Memphis
Calderon to Detroit
Austin Daye and and Tayshaun Prince to Memphis

PG: Kyle Lowry
SG: DeMar DeRozan
SF: Rudy Gay
PF: Andrea Bargnani
C: Jonas Valancious

Pretty stellar backcourt with Lowry, Demar, and Gay now.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8...gree-principle-trade-rudy-gay-toronto-raptors

 

[playmakr]

A lot of volume shooters in Toronto

 

[coolm]

that IS a good backcourt

it's kinda sad actually. Memphis didn't have to do that yet. They just don't care.

 

[gracefor24]

Funny thing is if you look at advanced stats they say Memphis adds wins through the trade and Toronto loses wins!!

Ed Davis is having a sneaky great season. Tayshaun Prince is a better long range shooter than Gay and won't steal shots from Randolph and Gasol and is a better team defender as well.

I don't think Memphis is significantly worse through this.

I also don't think Toronto is significantly better.

 

[bocabull]

Memphis is the winner here. We always said what kept them from being elite was the lack of an elite go to scorer. Well they got rid of Gay who was inconsistent trying to be one and replaced him with a reliable crafty vet who will plug right in at SF. They replaced what they lost in Speights with a young upgrade in Davis.

While they still aren't elite they might just have become a tougher blue collar grind it out pain in the ass to eliminate.

 

[Smash Williams]

Memphis is the winner here. We always said what kept them from being elite was the lack of an elite go to scorer. Well they got rid of Gay who was inconsistent trying to be one and replaced him with a reliable crafty vet who will plug right in at SF. They replaced what they lost in Speights with a young upgrade in Davis.

While they still aren't elite they might just have become a tougher blue collar grind it out pain in the ass to eliminate.

My thoughts as well.

As far as this season goes, I think it's a wash at worst for Memphis, which is impressive when you consider how much they've cleaned up their financial situation.

They lose a bit offensively, though I think it'll be partly offset by shifting more of the shot creation burden on Conley and Gasol, who are both better passers than Gay. I think Prince will also space the floor better than Gay, whose reputation as a shooter has always exceeded his actual performance.

Defensively, Prince is probably better than Gay at this point. Tayshaun isn't the player he was when he did a number on Kobe in the 2004 Finals, but he's still a solid defender. I would also imagine Prince's defensive effort kicks up a notch or two now that he's playing on a contender once again.

This new Memphis lineup reminds me a lot of that 2011 team that knocked off the Spurs and took OKC the distance. Z-Bo isn't the same player, but Gasol has gotten better, Conley is more seasoned, Prince fits the Battier role, and Tony is still Tony. On the other hand, they don't have a Mayo coming off the bench. Ugly offense, smothering defense. They'll be a really tough out.

Not to mention they're way under the luxury tax threshold now (more than $8 million) and have several trade exceptions available, so they may not be done adding pieces for this season.

 

[Smash Williams]

Funny thing is if you look at advanced stats they say Memphis adds wins through the trade and Toronto loses wins!!

Ed Davis is having a sneaky great season. Tayshaun Prince is a better long range shooter than Gay and won't steal shots from Randolph and Gasol and is a better team defender as well.

I don't think Memphis is significantly worse through this.

I also don't think Toronto is significantly better.

Yeah, Davis is getting largely overlooked in all of this, but that's a good pickup.

Toronto seems to be in win-now mode every season for the last several years, except they're building expensive teams to win 35 games a year. They gave an aging Hedo that huge contract, doubled down on Bargnani with a big extension (though I don't think they really had a choice), gave Derozan a bloated extension, blew their load on Landry Fields, and traded a lottery pick for a PG that's already been benched.

Toronto needs to completely blow it up and hope to land a star high in the lottery instead of trying to build around grossly overpaid one-dimensional players in failed attempts to earn a first round beatdown.

 

[coolm]

I dont necessarily think you guys are wrong. I am still a Tayshaun Prince fan. But this trade wasn't made for wins. It was made for financial relief. Pera is destroying that group from within.

Don't be surprised if he does something with Randolph also.

 

[stoops4pres]

Memphis is the winner here. We always said what kept them from being elite was the lack of an elite go to scorer. Well they got rid of Gay who was inconsistent trying to be one and replaced him with a reliable crafty vet who will plug right in at SF. They replaced what they lost in Speights with a young upgrade in Davis.

While they still aren't elite they might just have become a tougher blue collar grind it out pain in the ass to eliminate.

:clap :clap :clap

Seriously couldn't have said this better myself. The only point I somewhat disagree with is about not having an elite go-to scorer. Z-Bo is 2 years removed from dominating both the Spurs and Thunder in the playoffs. Now that Gay isn't (inexplicably) the focal point of the offense, I think Z-Bo can revert back to that elite level, or close to it. But other than that, very spot-on post.

 

[stoops4pres]

that IS a good backcourt

it's kinda sad actually. Memphis didn't have to do that yet. They just don't care.

Couldn't disagree more. If anything, I think this validates the franchise's commitment to a sustainable future.

Anyone that says the Grizzlies destroyed their title hopes because they traded Gay are either extremely misguided, or haven't watched the Grizzlies at all this season. I've maintained the stance that Gay has arguably been the most overrated player in the league this year, and for good reason. For one, he's been pitiful on offense (a main reason the Grizzlies' team O has been reeling the last couple months). He's shooting 40%, 31% from 3, and an abhorrent 47% true shooting percentage, This wouldn't be all that bad, except for the fact that he averages 18 attempts a game. Basically, he's been a volume shooter that can't efficiently shoot the ball. Furthermore, he hasn't displayed any other qualities to negate these aforementioned shortcomings. He's neither a good distributor nor defender, and is an average rebounder. Then you consider his PER of 27. No, that number 27 isn't his PER rating--that's his ranking amongst the other small forwardsin the league. I'm not implying that the PER is the end-all, but it helps illuminate just how bad Gay has been this season.

Simply put, Gay has been an average player with a contract that suggests he's a superstar.

Gay's only season where one could make a logical argument that he was playing close to his potential was back in 2010-2011, and that season was cut short due to injury. When he was playing at a high level and Tony Allen was finally inserted into the lineup, they went on a fantastic run until Gay's season was cut short due to injury. Back then, I figured if Gay could maintain that ascension I thought he had made, with the returning core that gave OKC all they could handle in the postseason, then the Grizzlies could make a serious run at the title. The only problem with that presumption, was that Gay regressed back to the immensely talented yet underachieving player he had been prior to the 2010-2011 season. Therefore, I think that shortened season was an anomaly more than anything. Point being, I do not blame management at all for trading him midway through the year. Due to his stock plummeting, management arrived at two options: Keep Gay, hope he can somehow return back to the glimpse he once showed in half a season out of seven, and see how far this team can go; or come to the realization that he will probably never come close to living up to neither his potential nor contract, and capitalize on getting a good trade for him (for both the short-term and long-term) before his trade value completely diminishes. All things considered, I think they made the right choice with the latter.

Of course, watch Gay go completely insane in Toronto and become a perennial All-Star for seasons to come. Then I'll have no choice but to eat so much crow to the point that I'll overdose. :facepalm

 

[stoops4pres]

Funny thing is if you look at advanced stats they say Memphis adds wins through the trade and Toronto loses wins!!

Ed Davis is having a sneaky great season. Tayshaun Prince is a better long range shooter than Gay and won't steal shots from Randolph and Gasol and is a better team defender as well.

I think Prince is a better fit at this juncture, especially if he can maintain his shooting percentage but increase his number of attempts (shooting 43%, and over 50% from the corner spots). He'll provide more spacing, won't cripple the offense through stagnation (unlike Rudy), and running the offense through both Z-Bo and the pick-and-roll with Gasol and Conley can now become the two focal points of the offense again. Also, Prince is definitely an upgrade on defense at the small forward spot. Arguably the best defense in the league just got stronger.

You're right about Davis. He is having a breakout year, and he could possibly become the best player out of anyone in this trade after it's all said and done. You know a franchise has a strong interior when he is arguably the 4th best big on the team right now.

This new Memphis lineup reminds me a lot of that 2011 team that knocked off the Spurs and took OKC the distance. Z-Bo isn't the same player, but Gasol has gotten better, Conley is more seasoned, Prince fits the Battier role, and Tony is still Tony. On the other hand, they don't have a Mayo coming off the bench. Ugly offense, smothering defense. They'll be a really tough out.

My thoughts as well. Memphis is not as deep at guard (Vasquez, Mayo, and Battier all came off the bench); however, they are deeper in the post. And if they could take OKC to the brink with Sam Young as the starting small forward, then they can definitely make some noise with Tayshaun Prince at that spot.

Not to mention they're way under the luxury tax threshold now (more than $8 million) and have several trade exceptions available, so they may not be done adding pieces for this season.

This is what's been lost amidst the entire trade. There was simply no way Memphis could both keep Gay and build a solid assortment of roster pieces around him. His contract was going to be so steep that luxury tax penalties and a paucity of roster flexibility were practically inevitable. Now, they'll be able to sign Tony Allen when he receives his extension in the offseason, in addition to the possibility of poaching players/pieces like you mentioned. In that case, a bonafide long-range shooter (a la J.J. Reddick) or a 1st-round pick would be ideal.

 

[coolm]

all interesting points and I would hope thats the case. Because when Pera arrived and stiffed Gay and Z-bo it certainly looked like he was about to undertake a major rebuilding project.

 

[stoops4pres]

all interesting points and I would hope thats the case. Because when Pera arrived and stiffed Gay and Z-bo it certainly looked like he was about to undertake a major rebuilding project.

Good point, and that was cause for concern. Though I disagreed with the decision entirely, I think Pera wanted to pick the brains of Gasol and Conley. After all, they are the future of the franchise.

I don't know what went on during that dinner, but hopefully whatever preconceived notion Pera had of dealing Z-Bo has been put to rest for the time being. It made complete sense to trade Gay, but it would be absurd to move Z-Bo at this juncture (unless it was for something that just couldn't be rejected).

I think bringing in a veteran of Prince's stature shows they are committed to winning in the short-term. It would have been pointless to bring him in otherwise.

 

[Smash Williams]

all interesting points and I would hope thats the case. Because when Pera arrived and stiffed Gay and Z-bo it certainly looked like he was about to undertake a major rebuilding project.

Pera did inherit something of a project, because Heisley left behind a team with serious salary cap issues. The philosophy of Heisley and Wallace seemed to be, "Pay everyone now, and worry about the tough decisions later." Pera's front office couldn't continue to put off those tough decisions. These moves have been about money, but any team that makes moves without worrying about money isn't acting responsibly. I honestly don't believe the current front office expects any dropoff in this team. If you've read John Hollinger's assessments of Rudy Gay over the years, he clearly believes that Gay's production can be replaced at a fraction of his cost. Hollinger is far from alone in that belief, and he presumably has significant influence in Memphis. Whether or not trading Gay works out remains to be seen, but it was destined to happen the day Hollinger joined that front office.

The new luxury tax is essentially functioning as a hard cap. Arn Tellem even referred to it as a "hard cap" in the letter he sent to his clients this week about ousting Billy Hunter. Going forward, teams are going to avoid that tax line like the plague. Memphis is doing a nice job of being proactive about it, because we're probably going to see far more blatant salary dumps from teams that aren't prepared when the stiffer tax penalties kick in next season.

For Memphis, I think Gasol and Conley are the only two fixed pieces moving forward. Unless they make a deep run with Randolph playing like the 2011 version of himself, there is a very good chance he gets moved this offseason, especially if they can get an offensively dynamic wing. They're still in dire need of perimeter players that can space the floor, and I envision Hollinger trying to extract a lot of value out of Randolph while he still has some. He turns 32 this summer, and he may not age well, given his physique and his already limited athleticism.

Edit: Looked up Hollinger's analysis from his ESPN profile.

Randolph hurt his knee early in the season and tried to play his way back into shape late, but never quite returned to the Z-Bo who dominated in 2010-11. The Grizzlies would like to treat his campaign as an outlier, but at 31 the fear lingers that he's entering his decline phase. If so, the three years and $50 million left on his contract will be rather unpleasant to swallow.

 

[stoops4pres]

Pera did inherit something of a project, because Heisley left behind a team with serious salary cap issues. The philosophy of Heisley and Wallace seemed to be, "Pay everyone now, and worry about the tough decisions later." Pera's front office couldn't continue to put off those tough decisions. These moves have been about money, but any team that makes moves without worrying about money isn't acting responsibly. I honestly don't believe the current front office expects any dropoff in this team. If you've read John Hollinger's assessments of Rudy Gay over the years, he clearly believes that Gay's production can be replaced at a fraction of his cost. Hollinger is far from alone in that belief, and he presumably has significant influence in Memphis. Whether or not trading Gay works out remains to be seen, but it was destined to happen the day Hollinger joined that front office.

The new luxury tax is essentially functioning as a hard cap. Arn Tellem even referred to it as a "hard cap" in the letter he sent to his clients this week about ousting Billy Hunter. Going forward, teams are going to avoid that tax line like the plague. Memphis is doing a nice job of being proactive about it, because we're probably going to see far more blatant salary dumps from teams that aren't prepared when the stiffer tax penalties kick in next season.

Precisely. This trade has been much more polarizing in the media than it should be. Anyone that understands the new economics of the league, or just how terrible Gay has been this season--or both--wouldn't be criticizing this deal from Memphis' side.

If anyone should be criticized, it should be Heisley's myopic decision of maxing-out Gay in the first place. He could have signed Gay at a fraction of the cost much earlier than in the summer of 2010, but wasn't proactive and let Gay's representatives fleece Memphis with the optimum pay when it came down to the wire. New management inherited this financial mess, and have responded well to it (at least on paper). I think this decision will prove correct going forward, as well.

For Memphis, I think Gasol and Conley are the only two fixed pieces moving forward. Unless they make a deep run with Randolph playing like the 2011 version of himself, there is a very good chance he gets moved this offseason, especially if they can get an offensively dynamic wing. They're still in dire need of perimeter players that can space the floor, and I envision Hollinger trying to extract a lot of value out of Randolph while he still has some. He turns 32 this summer, and he may not age well, given his physique and his already limited athleticism.

Edit: Looked up Hollinger's analysis from his ESPN profile.

Randolph hurt his knee early in the season and tried to play his way back into shape late, but never quite returned to the Z-Bo who dominated in 2010-11. The Grizzlies would like to treat his campaign as an outlier, but at 31 the fear lingers that he's entering his decline phase. If so, the three years and $50 million left on his contract will be rather unpleasant to swallow.

All valid points. I would vehemently oppose dealing Z-Bo in the middle of the season, but that wouldn't necessarily be the case in the offseason. It just depends on the factors you listed above. I could also see them breeding Ed Davis to be his replacement. I saw a stat that caught my eye the other day: Per 36 minutes, they have both posted basically identical numbers, with Davis at the young age of 23. While it's a stat-dense way to try to justify a decision of that magnitude (should it ever happen), it's interesting nonetheless.

 

[coolm]

IF Ed Davis can be a consistent replacement for Z-bo defensively and not a complete bust offensively then wouldnt it make sense for Z-bo to be gone soon?

 

[stoops4pres]

IF Ed Davis can be a consistent replacement for Z-bo defensively and not a complete bust offensively then wouldnt it make sense for Z-bo to be gone soon?

I think it depends on what Memphis could reel in, in exchange for giving away Z-Bo. While he isn't getting any younger, and his decline will presumably be exacerbated due to his limited athleticism, he's still one of the best bigs in the game. The Grizzlies would have to get an immense amount of value in return for them to justify giving up an All-Star who is the face of the franchise.

 

[Smash Williams]

The more I think about it, I don't believe Z-Bo will get dealt. I still think they'll try to trade him, but there aren't any trade partners that make sense. The only teams interested in him would be ones in a similar position as Memphis, and it's difficult to construct mutually beneficial contender-contender trades of that magnitude.

That's unless they can find an impatient, short-sighted team that mistakenly thinks it's only a veteran player away from being relevant, a la Grunfeld's Wizards the last several years, and is willing to give up some assets that Memphis likely desires (the Grizzlies are short on future first rounders and could use a wing that stretches the floor). But again, even finding a deal like that is still difficult when you go through the list of poorly managed teams that might fit the profile.

As a point of reference, consider Pau Gasol. He's more of a 5 than a 4, and he has one less year on his contract than Randolph, so Gasol should be easier to move; however, in reality, finding a mutually beneficial Gasol deal is incredibly difficult.

 

[thebigabd]

The more I think about it, I don't believe Z-Bo will get dealt. I still think they'll try to trade him, but there aren't any trade partners that make sense. The only teams interested in him would be ones in a similar position as Memphis, and it's difficult to construct mutually beneficial contender-contender trades of that magnitude.

That's unless they can find an impatient, short-sighted team that mistakenly thinks it's only a veteran player away from being relevant, a la Grunfeld's Wizards the last several years, and is willing to give up some assets that Memphis likely desires (the Grizzlies are short on future first rounders and could use a wing that stretches the floor). But again, even finding a deal like that is still difficult when you go through the list of poorly managed teams that might fit the profile.

As a point of reference, consider Pau Gasol. He's more of a 5 than a 4, and he has one less year on his contract than Randolph, so Gasol should be easier to move; however, in reality, finding a mutually beneficial Gasol deal is incredibly difficult.

Bargnani for Gasol. Andrea may be good next to Dwight Howard as a 3rd scoring option instead of the primary.

 

[Smash Williams]

Bargnani for Gasol. Andrea may be good next to Dwight Howard as a 3rd scoring option instead of the primary.

Bargnani is a better fit next to Howard than Gasol is, but he's not the shooter that he's been billed as. He hasn't cracked the 35% mark as a 3-point shooter in three years; from 2010-11 through this season, he's 32.6%. While he would be a better fit offensively, and his shooting would presumably improve with a smaller role, he doesn't produce nearly enough to justify more than $10 million per year as an inconsistent shooter that can't play defense. Case in point, the Raptors have been significantly better without him this year (4-17 with Bargs, 13-14 w/o Bargs).

Tthe Lakers' primary problem is defense, and Bargnani would greatly exacerbate that problem. Also, the Lakers wouldn't take his contract, because he has two more years remaining, and they're clearing the books for the summer of 2014.