Up from $63 million this season. So when you see the max offers flying around for marginal players this summer understand those contracts will be a bargain in 2 years.
Based on those projections, here's what a non-Bird max offer for a player with less than 7 years of experience (i.e. a guy coming off a rookie contract, signing a max offer sheet with a different team, like Hayward last summer) looks like this summer:
2015-16: $15.8 mil
2016-17: $16.51 mil
2017-18: $17.22 mil
2018-19: $17.93 mil
Total: 4 years, $67.46 mil
I'm not a Kanter fan (I think that big men who can't defend at all have limited value), but I won't be surprised to see guys like him get these type of offers this summer...and it won't be that crazy, because here are the cap inflation-adjusted 2014-15 equivalents to those salaries:
2015-16: $14.86 mil
2016-17: $11.71 mil
2017-18: $10.06 mil
2018-19: $11.31 mil
Total: 4 years, $47.94 mil
So yeah, a lot of the contracts signed this summer are going to look ridiculous, but a good number of them will look like huge bargains in a year or two.
Will be interesting to see if players like Love opt out or exercise their player option and wait for the big jump in the cap.
I think it's definitely in Love's best interest to opt out this summer (the only way he doesn't is if he and the Cavs made an under-the-table agreement for him to opt-in for 2015-16 as a condition of the trade). From there, I would expect him to take a two-year deal with a player option on the second year (what LeBron did last summer) in order to hit the market in 2016 or take a three-year deal with a player option on the third year in order to hit the market in 2017.
It makes even more sense for Kevin Durant to take a two-year deal with a player option on the second year when he hits the market next summer. Beyond the cap jumping from $89 mil in 2016 to $108 mil in 2017, KD goes from nine years of experience in 2016 to ten years in 2017. The max for a player with 7-9 years max is 30% of the cap (it's actually a slightly different figure from the cap), whereas the 10+ years max is 35%.
In 2016, KD's Bird max (re-signing with OKC) will be 5 years, $146.5 mil. In 2017, it will be 5 years, $207.5 mil.
His non-Bird maxes (signing with another team) would be 4 years, $108.8 mil in 2016 and 4 years, $154.1 mil in 2017.
Another factor to consider is that both Westbrook and Ibaka hit free agency in 2017, so taking a two-year deal in 2016 with the ability to opt out in 2017 would also give KD a better idea of OKC's long-term picture before signing a long-term contract. In other words, KD can see if Westbrook and Ibaka are willing to commit long-term before doing so himself.
Thus, don't be surprised if KD essentially plays on a one-year deal worth $25.5 mil in 2016-17, then hits free agency again in 2017.
Will also be interesting if the players opt out of the cba in 2017. I think they will. They got hosed in the last negotiation which occurred right after the Great Recession.
I'm more concerned about the owners opting out. It seems like the NBA players always get killed in these negotiations. If I were a player, I'd be afraid of rocking the boat.
League prosperity doesn't always trickle down to the players. Look at the NFLPA. Those guys end up with a smaller cut in every CBA, with the owners arguing that a smaller cut of a bigger pie still equates to more money for the players. The NBA owners may be able to negotiate the BRI % down even more, to where the players get a $95 mil cap instead of the projected $108 mil cap in 2017. "Look at these greedy players: they're not satisfied with the cap increasing from $89 mil in 2016 to the proposed $95 mil in 2017."
I'm usually on the players' side, but unfortunately I don't like their chances of negotiating a better deal. The owners will always be greedy and wealthy enough to wait it out longer than the players.
