Who Should Thunder draft?

[Mr.B!!!]

Don't have an opinion and know lottery hasn't happened; but who is the guy?

 

[gracefor24]

Don't have an opinion and know lottery hasn't happened; but who is the guy?

This is going to be an interesting draft considering our roster is loaded with young guys: Lamb, Jackson, Orton, Liggins, Jones. We really don't have room for 2 new guaranteed contracts. Something has to give. I wouldn't be shocked at all if we see the Thunder make a trade and/or draft international and stash some players for a couple years.

DraftExpress has the Thunder taking Michael Carter-Williams at 12 and Reggie Bullock at 29. I can't see us taking a non-shooting guard at 12. We already have those in spades.

I wouldn't mind seeing the Thunder take Dennis Schroeder, the German PG who shredded the Harrison kid in the Hoops Summit game. You could stash him for 2 years and have him ready to arrive when Jackson's contract is up. The kid is a stud.

Or Sergey Karasev, the 6'7 SG/SF from Russia, also played well in the Hoops Summit game and has played on the Russian Olympic team already.

To me this was the genius of the Spurs that they grabbed guys they knew would take a few years but their roster was always loaded so it didn't matter much.

Chad Ford of ESPN has OKC taking Gorgui Deng of Louisville with the 12 pick and Ricardo Ledo with the 29th pick. I hate the Deng pick. Hopefully the Thunder have learned their lesson of trying to pick centers in the mid-late lottery. The NBA is going away from that route anyway.

I would love the Ledo pick. High risk but high reward at late first round is what you're looking for. The kid was a scoring machine in HS and has great size for a SG.

 

[nikebasketball]

I heard Plummlee from Duke or Len from Maryland

 

[Smash Williams]

This is going to be an interesting draft considering our roster is loaded with young guys: Lamb, Jackson, Orton, Liggins, Jones. We really don't have room for 2 new guaranteed contracts. Something has to give.

OKC only has 10 players under contract for next season. Martin, Brewer, Liggins, Orton, and Fisher are free agents. I can't imagine all five are re-signed. I would guess that one of those two picks is drafted-and-stashed or traded, but there is plenty of roster flexibility.

Chad Ford of ESPN has OKC taking Gorgui Deng of Louisville with the 12 pick and Ricardo Ledo with the 29th pick. I hate the Deng pick. Hopefully the Thunder have learned their lesson of trying to pick centers in the mid-late lottery. The NBA is going away from that route anyway.

There is an argument to be made that there has been an overcorrection on the valuation of centers in the draft. Historically, they have been overvalued, but recently the number of centers that have turned out to be absolute steals suggests the pendulum swung too far in the other direction. The 2006 lottery was a big man disaster, but since then there have been numerous bigs that went substantially lower than they would if there were a re-draft: Andre Drummond #9, Vucevic #16, Larry Sanders #15, Brook Lopez #10, Hibbert #17, Koufos #23, Pekovic #31 (he had a contract situation, though), DeAndre Jordan #35, Omer Asik #36, Joakim Noah #9, Marc Gasol #48.

There have obviously been some busts as well in that time (i.e. Aldrich), but there have been a lot of quality centers that have slipped in the last six drafts. That Toronto pick is going to be in a spot with a high bust probability anyhow, so it would be an understandable gamble given the risk/reward ratio. The NBA "going away from that route" is precisely what his increased the value of going in that direction. It's a market inefficiency.

 

[gracefor24]

OKC only has 10 players under contract for next season. Martin, Brewer, Liggins, Orton, and Fisher are free agents. I can't imagine all five are re-signed. I would guess that one of those two picks is drafted-and-stashed or traded, but there is plenty of roster flexibility.

There is an argument to be made that there has been an overcorrection on the valuation of centers in the draft. Historically, they have been overvalued, but recently the number of centers that have turned out to be absolute steals suggests the pendulum swung too far in the other direction. The 2006 lottery was a big man disaster, but since then there have been numerous bigs that went substantially lower than they would if there were a re-draft: Andre Drummond #9, Vucevic #16, Larry Sanders #15, Brook Lopez #10, Hibbert #17, Koufos #23, Pekovic #31 (he had a contract situation, though), DeAndre Jordan #35, Omer Asik #36, Joakim Noah #9, Marc Gasol #48.

There have obviously been some busts as well in that time (i.e. Aldrich), but there have been a lot of quality centers that have slipped in the last six drafts. That Toronto pick is going to be in a spot with a high bust probability anyhow, so it would be an understandable gamble given the risk/reward ratio. The NBA "going away from that route" is precisely what his increased the value of going in that direction. It's a market inefficiency.

That's just it. If you count in their work in FA then the roster shrinks quite a bit. Then add in that they like to keep flexibility with that last spot and you lose another. I also would have to think that this is the year they try to make something happen after botching it with Harden. You have to think Durant is going to be letting them know he's tired of an imbalanced roster. So there is roster flexibility but it's hard to say until they decide what they want to do with FA.

As far as their being steals for the Center position you took a pretty wide scope including Gasol and going back for years. Basically, there is going to be a guy or two who slip every year and are undervalued. I wouldn't include Marc Gasol in that group. He simply improved a ton.

The interesting thing is only 2 of those guys were picked in the mid-lottery. To me that is no man's land. Guys aren't quite undervalued until they hit the mid-teen's unless you get a Drummond who is a huge risk as well. The Thunder have simply struggled to evaluate big man talent going back to Seattle days.

I also think with the evolution of the game it's getting harder to pick centers in terms of how they will adjust to NBA basketball. The biggest thing I would look for is skill level. Look at the top C's in the league, they all have a tremendous skill level but not all are great athletes. Gasol, Lopez, Bynum, Duncan, and even if you include some of the PF's like Randolph, Lee, etc.

So, probably the bigger question is who replaces Martin (Harden)?

I hate to say it but Francisco Garcia is a FA. His shooting and toughness would be a nice fit here. Matt Barnes as well. JJ Redick would be huge but I wonder what it would cost. Mo Williams or Randy Foye?

 

[coolm]

I'd LOVE to have Matt Barnes in OKC. He's a stud.

 

[sperry]

The Thunder have needs everywhere. Outside of KD and RW the roster is weak, and a talented player could get into the rotation at basically any position. They really need to hit on the Raptors trade for the Harden trade to not look like a complete disaster.

 

[SoonerBounce13]

I'd LOVE to have Matt Barnes in OKC. He's a stud.

I'd have a hard time rooting for that thug

 

[NickZepp]

The Thunder have needs everywhere. Outside of KD and RW the roster is weak, and a talented player could get into the rotation at basically any position. They really need to hit on the Raptors trade for the Harden trade to not look like a complete disaster.

I wouldn't say it's weak. K-Mart is a good player, Ibaka is really good and getting better every year. Sefalosia is a great defender. Collison is a great all around role player and a guy everyone would want. Thunder need one more good scoring option in case one of the top 3 gets hurt.

 

[coolm]

the roster is weak?

LOL

 

[Smash Williams]

That's just it. If you count in their work in FA then the roster shrinks quite a bit. Then add in that they like to keep flexibility with that last spot and you lose another. I also would have to think that this is the year they try to make something happen after botching it with Harden. You have to think Durant is going to be letting them know he's tired of an imbalanced roster. So there is roster flexibility but it's hard to say until they decide what they want to do with FA.

Aside from Martin, all of OKC's free agents are disposable. It would make a lot of sense to bring back Liggins too, but Ronnie Brewer and Daniel Orton aren't dictating the Thunder's direction.

Last summer Durant said Harden wasn't hitting free agency--and technically he was correct--but he clearly meant it as an expectation that Harden would be extended by OKC. I don't think Sam Presti will be taking orders from Durant.

As far as their being steals for the Center position you took a pretty wide scope including Gasol and going back for years. Basically, there is going to be a guy or two who slip every year and are undervalued. I wouldn't include Marc Gasol in that group. He simply improved a ton.

Of course Gasol improved a ton. You can say that about most players that slipped in the draft. That's sort of the point. You're looking for players that are undervalued not for what they are so much as what they could potentially be. Gasol is a huge outlier, but they're all outliers.

The interesting thing is only 2 of those guys were picked in the mid-lottery. To me that is no man's land. Guys aren't quite undervalued until they hit the mid-teen's unless you get a Drummond who is a huge risk as well. The Thunder have simply struggled to evaluate big man talent going back to Seattle days.

How are you defining "mid-lottery," such that you arrive at a count of two? Noah and Drummond went 9th, and Lopez went 10th. Is #9 the cutoff?

The Toronto pick is going to be 12th. 12th out of 14 isn't "mid-lottery." 12th is much closer to "mid-teens" than "mid-lottery."

Any center drafted outside the top of the lottery is a risk, in that sense that there is a relatively low probability of panning out.Otherwise, they wouldn't have dropped in the first place. I'm not arguing otherwise. However, it's not a big risk in terms of the difference between say, the average value of the #12 pick versus that of a complete bust.

Mullens (#24) turned out to be above average value for a late first. D.J. White (#29) didn't turn into much, but that's standard for a #29 pick. Ibaka (#24) was an absolute home run at a spot with a very low success rate. Any realistic GM goes into that part of the draft with the understanding that they're probably whiffing. Cole Aldrich (#11) was the only certified bust, relative to his draft position. Getting one player of Ibaka's caliber out of a #11, two #24s, and a #29 is an above-average outcome.

The Aldrich pick is the only time the franchise has been in a similar position during Presti's tenure. You can't make a scared decision based on one flop. The reality is that the team still needs a center that can defend without being a complete liability on the offensive end, and the avenues for attaining such a player are limited, particularly in the Thunder's current state. If I'm Sam Presti, I'm not letting Wally Walker drafting of Sene, Petro, and Swift dictate my decision-making.

I don't think the Thunder have to draft a center at #12, but I don't think they should shy away from it. I'm not in love with any of the bigs projected in that range, but I suppose that's why they're not projected to go significantly higher. I actually tend to be overcritical of individual center prospects, but I'm aware of my bias on a macro-level.

I also think with the evolution of the game it's getting harder to pick centers in terms of how they will adjust to NBA basketball. The biggest thing I would look for is skill level. Look at the top C's in the league, they all have a tremendous skill level but not all are great athletes. Gasol, Lopez, Bynum, Duncan, and even if you include some of the PF's like Randolph, Lee, etc.

Skill level is nice, and a fairly high one is a necessity for being an elite big man, but I don't think that's an expectation or a need for the Thunder. They just need a quality center that won't kill them at either end. That's a much lower bar for skill level.

Guys like Drummond, Sanders, Asik, and Varejao (earlier in his career, at least) are very limited in terms of offensive skill, which is what you seemed to be focused upon (given the Randolph and Lee mentions). Hibbert was raw after four years of college.

OKC needs a center that can defend and catch and finish. That doesn't require a polished skill set.

So, probably the bigger question is who replaces Martin (Harden)?

I hate to say it but Francisco Garcia is a FA. His shooting and toughness would be a nice fit here. Matt Barnes as well. JJ Redick would be huge but I wonder what it would cost. Mo Williams or Randy Foye?

Martin replaces Martin. I've never been a Martin fan, but there isn't a realistic option for replacing him via free agency.

Let's say the luxury tax level increases from $70.3 million to $72.3 million. That would put the apron at $76.3 million. The Thunder already have $66.1 million committed to 10 players. The #12 pick would push that up to about $68.1 million. Using the full non-taxpayer MLE (starting at $5.15 mil) would push the Thunder up to $73.2 million for 12 players while leaving them hard capped by the apron, with very little breathing room (about $3 million to spend on other free agents, for the entire season).

So depending on the new tax level, the full non-taxpayer MLE would create a tight fit under the apron. That financial reality, combined with the low probability of the Thunder getting a player better than Martin to sign for just the full MLE, makes it highly unlikely they go that route. It makes a lot more sense to re-sign Martin to fair deal and add a more modest role player with the taxpayer MLE.

Redick is the only player listed capable of replacing Martin. I would love to have Redick instead of Martin, but he's going to get significantly more than the non-taxpayer MLE. A few months ago Woj reported that Arn Tellem was going to seek 4 years, $40 million for Redick, which seems a bit excessive, but 4 years, $22 million (the non-tax MLE) would be an unrealistic discount.

If Cisco, Barnes, Mo Williams, or Randy Foye is the replacement for your #3 scoring option, your team is in big trouble. All of those guys play significantly smaller roles on worse teams. Cisco and Barnes are great cheapo options, as long as they're no more than the second or third guys off your bench.

 

[bocabull]

Andrew Bynum.

 

[gracefor24]

The point on the FA's was that when you factor in replacing FA's then it does limit what you can do with 2 first round picks that are guaranteed roster spots. We are taking two different perspectives at the same issue.

We can agree to disagree on the Center issue. They are definitely outliers and the exception proves the rule. I just think taking flyers on Centers past proven commodities is a risky business and it's hurt the Thunder in some very clear ways.

The Mullens pick was brutal. The guy underachieved in college and was basically a 7'0 SF. He's played crappy for a TERRIBLE team where he gets to shoot as much as he wants. He shot 38% from the field this year! LOL.

To take mullens we passed on Rod Beaoubois, Taj Gibson (BRUTAL), Dajuan Blair, Derrick Brown, Danny Green, Marcus Thornton, Chase Budinger.

The Aldrich pick was worse, if only that it compounded the Mullens pick. Again, you listed a ton of outliers but if you listed all the busts that go along with them it would make it seem much less tasty.

The point on Gasol was that he was considered a pretty poor prospect for most of his young career. He played HS in the states and was basically a big fat doughboy. They literally took a flyer on him and it paid off. I wouldn't call that a super calculated move or say that it's comparable to taking Aldrich at 13 or even Mullens at 24.

I should have been more specific in mid to late lottery. I think anywhere from 9-14 is a tough place to get a Center because you're usually going on potential and having guys that aren't really good at anything yet.

When I said skill I should have included more aspects and more players. There are various skills that if you are really good at one you can pay off as a pick. obviously Ibaka and Sanders were really good at shotblocking which paid off in terms of their lack of offensive skill. Noah had an extreme motor and will and could rebound right away.

Either way I think we can both agree that the Thunder roster needs some retooling and this Free Agency and draft are really important after the disaster of the Harden trade.

 

[bocabull]

Give up Ibaka & whatever picks & prospects necessary to get Bynum. He's the risk worth taking. Durant & Westbrook are going to win you 50+ every season no matter who you play with them.

If a Bynum gamble paid off it would put the Thunder over the top. Who else can you even remotely say that about? When healthy Bynum is a quarter. Ibaka never will be.

 

[gracefor24]

OKC only has 10 players under contract for next season. Martin, Brewer, Liggins, Orton, and Fisher are free agents. I can't imagine all five are re-signed. I would guess that one of those two picks is drafted-and-stashed or traded, but there is plenty of roster flexibility.

There is an argument to be made that there has been an overcorrection on the valuation of centers in the draft. Historically, they have been overvalued, but recently the number of centers that have turned out to be absolute steals suggests the pendulum swung too far in the other direction. The 2006 lottery was a big man disaster, but since then there have been numerous bigs that went substantially lower than they would if there were a re-draft: Andre Drummond #9, Vucevic #16, Larry Sanders #15, Brook Lopez #10, Hibbert #17, Koufos #23, Pekovic #31 (he had a contract situation, though), DeAndre Jordan #35, Omer Asik #36, Joakim Noah #9, Marc Gasol #48.

There have obviously been some busts as well in that time (i.e. Aldrich), but there have been a lot of quality centers that have slipped in the last six drafts. That Toronto pick is going to be in a spot with a high bust probability anyhow, so it would be an understandable gamble given the risk/reward ratio. The NBA "going away from that route" is precisely what his increased the value of going in that direction. It's a market inefficiency.

So I went back and looked up the 2008 draft. It's crazy that of the guys you mentioned Lopez, Hibbert, Koufos, Peckovic, Jordan, and Asik were all in the same draft!! And you didn't list Ibaka, Robin Lopez, and Javale McGee.

That is sick!! So basically your point about finding value almost 90% of it happened in one draft! Nuts.

Go the next year and your centers are Thabeet and Mullens in the 1st round and no one in the 2nd.

Go the year before and you have Oden, Horford (small C), Noah, Hawes, Splitter in the first round. Then you have Fesenko, Gasol, and Gray in the 2nd round.

It would seem that the harder thing would be evaluating whether or not there was the talent depth at the position that year that would justify drafting that position in relation to your draft pick. In other words, in 2009 picking a center was just brutal. But if you go to 2008 then you are getting CRAZY value at the Center position. Just like in 2009 you were getting CRAZY value for PG's: Rubio, Flynn, Jennings, Curry, Holiday, Lawson, Teague, Maynor, Collison, Beaubois, and Douglas in the 1st round.

 

[sperry]

the roster is weak?

LOL

Yes. It is very clear that we are lacking talent, specifically on the offensive end, outside of our two stars. Upgrading any of the other starting or bench spots, aside from Ibaka, is not unrealistic, and is something that should actively be pursued.

 

[SoonerBounce13]

.

Either way I think we can both agree that the Thunder roster needs some retooling and this Free Agency and draft are really important after the disaster of the Harden trade.

Disaster?

 

[NickZepp]

Thunder got something for Harden as opposed to getting nothing which would have happened after this year.

 

[NickZepp]

Yes. It is very clear that we are lacking talent, specifically on the offensive end, outside of our two stars. Upgrading any of the other starting or bench spots, aside from Ibaka, is not unrealistic, and is something that should actively be pursued.

Jackson could be a good offensive player off the bench. Not sure about his defense though. I would like to see the Thunder either trade or get rid of Perk and get a bit better offensive player in his place. Sefalosia serves his purpose and show the 3 pretty good this year so I would like to see him stay. Same with Collison and his role honestly I would like to see him play a little more if anything.

 

[Mr.B!!!]

Probably totally off the wall thinking, but it sounds like maybe the best things is to continue to put money in the bank for a big payoff in a year or two. I wonder if the Thunder would package the #12, Lamb and Jones for something in the future?

This would probably make me a terrible G.M., but when you are probably the best team in the conference (when healthy), I'd probably be respectfully requesting that my coach make more of an effort showcasing assets that I have on my roster. Lamb and Jones have gone from intriguing prospects to D-League veterans. Bad idea.

If I'm Presti I'm having a long talk with Brooks on how to better showcase those guys next year, even if in limited roles. NBA is the fastest from "talent" to "also-ran" league I know. Look at Reggie Jackson, dude was an afterthought in the draft, now he is looking like a poor man's Westbrook BUT only becuase Brooks was forced to use him [little more loyalty to guys than Pop's seems to have].

Oh, and trade Ibaka, no, no, no ... not in my house [Mutumbo voice]. That guy is getting ready to hit his stride for the next five years as one of the better PF's in the NBA. And Harden? Take him over Martin absolutely, but he was not staying with OKC, better to get the assets. I could live with the roster "as-is", it's good enough to compete for a championship. Okay, talked myself into it, unless they feel really good about a guy at #12, deal the pick and guys who would have a better opportunity to contribute for something better next year and scout the crap out of that second pick [like stashing the euro dude].