A good night for OU...re: a 3 seed in the NCAAs

[stormspencer]

Both North Carolina and Notre Dame are going down at home tonight. Any time teams around that projected 3-4 seed line lose on their home court.....it's a good thing.:dance005:

 

[thegreyghost]

North Carolina in a losing effort scores 46 Total points....that's impresssive

 

[stormspencer]

North Carolina in a losing effort scores 46 Total points....that's impresssive

UNC is one of the most up and down teams in the country. They have talent, but maybe not the elite talent that they have had in recent years. They can look like world-beaters one night, and can't execute a bounce-pass the next night. Roy has never been know for "Xs and Os" and this year, UNC is a team that needs discipline and fundamentals or they can't beat the really good teams.

 

[BCSooners]

North Carolina is a top 10 team talent wise but only have 1 guy who can shoot the 3 at all. If they don't dominate the boards they are a borderline top 25 team.

 

[oukyle]

UNC and Notre Dame losing was good...Maryland winning vs Wisconsin was not. Maryland is looking like a 3 seed. They have less T50 wins compared to OU (6 vs 10), but all 6 of their wins are vs top 30 teams (same # as OU), they have a much better record (22-5 vs. 19-8), an easier remaining schedule, and their worst loss is to RPI 57 (Illinois). We have 4 losses worse than their worst loss.

We need Maryland to drop 1 of their final 3 (Michigan, @ Rutgers, @ Nebraska).

 

[pnkranger]

UNC and Notre Dame losing was good...Maryland winning vs Wisconsin was not. Maryland is looking like a 3 seed. They have less T50 wins compared to OU (6 vs 10), but all 6 of their wins are vs top 30 teams (same # as OU), they have a much better record (22-5 vs. 19-8), an easier remaining schedule, and their worst loss is to RPI 57 (Illinois). We have 4 losses worse than their worst loss.

We need Maryland to drop 1 of their final 3 (Michigan, @ Rutgers, @ Nebraska).

Agree that right now Maryland is looking like a better 3 seed. But there are four 3 seeds, and we're solidly one of those right now. Beat ISU and KU, and we are a lock three seed.

 

[IndySooner]

Agree that right now Maryland is looking like a better 3 seed. But there are four 3 seeds, and we're solidly one of those right now. Beat ISU and KU, and we are a lock three seed.

I think if we split those two games we are a three seed.

 

[MI Sooner]

I think if we split those two games we are a three seed.

Right. Assuming everyone else stays at the same level, a three seed should split games on the road against another 3/4 seed and at home against a 2/3 seed. Not sure why a split would move us, assuming other teams don't go crazy. A sweep strengthens our resume, even with an early exit in the conference tournament. One worry I have in the conference tournament is that we get the 2/3 seed and end up playing a hungry Texas team who needs a run to make the tournament.

 

[jackson_supersooner]

I think if we split those two games we are a three seed.

See that's kind of what I was thinking. But it would have to be like we go 2-1 over these final 3 and then win 1 ATLEAST in the big 12 tourney. So with a final record of 22-10. I wonder when the last time a 3 seed had 10 losses. Just looks weird.

 

[pnkranger]

I agree ... heading into conference tournaments. I would rather just win the league and lock up a three seed because teams can move big time in conference tournaments.

For instance, if WVU wins the big 12 tournament and we tie with them for third in the regular season, then they'll steal our 3 seed.

 

[oukyle]

See that's kind of what I was thinking. But it would have to be like we go 2-1 over these final 3 and then win 1 ATLEAST in the big 12 tourney. So with a final record of 22-10. I wonder when the last time a 3 seed had 10 losses. Just looks weird.

Georgetown, 2010
Maryland, 2001
Georgia Tech, 1996 (11 losses)

 

[WTSooner]

Georgetown, 2010
Maryland, 2001
Georgia Tech, 1996 (11 losses)

So not often.

 

[DenverSooner]

I agree ... heading into conference tournaments. I would rather just win the league and lock up a three seed because teams can move big time in conference tournaments.

For instance, if WVU wins the big 12 tournament and we tie with them for third in the regular season, then they'll steal our 3 seed.

Why would WVU win the conference tournament? I think they are one of the least likely teams to win the conference tournament.

 

[oukyle]

I think the top 8 teams are pretty much solidified (with the outside chance Iowa State and KU could swap spots):

Kentucky
UVA
Duke
Gonzaga
Wisconsin
Arizona
KU
Villanova

That leaves the following teams fighting for 4 slots as 3 seeds:
Team, Record (RPI, BPI, Sagarin Ranks)/ (Top 100 Wins/ Top 50 Wins/ Top 30 Wins/ Top 10 Wins)
Utah 20-5 (Ranks 11, 9, 8)/ (Wins 9/2/1/0)
Iowa State 20-6 (Ranks 10, 15, 10)/ (Wins 12/8/6/1)
OU 19-8 (Ranks 15, 16, 10)/ (Wins 10/10/6/1)
UNC 19-9 (Ranks 17, 14, 13)/ (Wins 9/4/1/0)
Baylor 19-7 (Ranks 13, 19, 14)/ (Wins 8/5/3/1)
Notre Dame 24-5 (Ranks 28, 17, 15)/ (Wins 8/5/3/1)
Maryland 23-5 (Ranks 9, 29, 27)/ (Wins 9/6/6/1)
Arkansas 23-5 (Ranks 14, 20, 26)/ (Wins 8/6/1/0)
Wichita St 24-3 (Ranks 16, 10, 16)/ (Wins 6/1/0/0)
N Iowa 26-2 (Ranks 21, 11, 23)/ (Wins 7/1/1/0)

To me, Wichita St and N Iowa should be tossed out because they just do not belong with the lack of top 50 wins. OU's biggest flaw is our overall record but UNC has the same issue. And while Utah, N Dame, Maryland, and Arkansas have nice records, they do not have the wins that OU does. As of today, I would rank the teams as follows:

Iowa State
OU
Baylor
Maryland
Utah
Notre Dame
UNC
Arkansas

But, really it depends whether the committee values top 50/30/10 wins, overall record, or computer rankings. You could make a decent argument for almost any ranking of those 8 teams.

 

[stormspencer]

I agree ... heading into conference tournaments. I would rather just win the league and lock up a three seed because teams can move big time in conference tournaments.

For instance, if WVU wins the big 12 tournament and we tie with them for third in the regular season, then they'll steal our 3 seed.

This typically isn't the case. The exceptions being teams that were outside of the bubble that may move into the tournament as a 10/11 seed or a team moving from a 10 to an 8....based upon their performance in conference tournaments. The higher the seed (if you're solidly in the tournament field already), the less movement you usually see/anticipate because the committee has an idea of where they are seeding you. Not to say that it has never happened, but I would be very surprised if we saw a team like WV (who is probably in the 5-6 seed range) jump up to a 3 seed if they won the Big 12.

 

[stormspencer]

I think the top 8 teams are pretty much solidified (with the outside chance Iowa State and KU could swap spots):

Kentucky
UVA
Duke
Gonzaga
Wisconsin
Arizona
KU
Villanova

That leaves the following teams fighting for 4 slots as 3 seeds:
Team, Record (RPI, BPI, Sagarin Ranks)/ (Top 100 Wins/ Top 50 Wins/ Top 30 Wins/ Top 10 Wins)
Utah 20-5 (Ranks 11, 9, 8)/ (Wins 9/2/1/0)
Iowa State 20-6 (Ranks 10, 15, 10)/ (Wins 12/8/6/1)
OU 19-8 (Ranks 15, 16, 10)/ (Wins 10/10/6/1)
UNC 19-9 (Ranks 17, 14, 13)/ (Wins 9/4/1/0)
Baylor 19-7 (Ranks 13, 19, 14)/ (Wins 8/5/3/1)
Notre Dame 24-5 (Ranks 28, 17, 15)/ (Wins 8/5/3/1)
Maryland 23-5 (Ranks 9, 29, 27)/ (Wins 9/6/6/1)
Arkansas 23-5 (Ranks 14, 20, 26)/ (Wins 8/6/1/0)
Wichita St 24-3 (Ranks 16, 10, 16)/ (Wins 6/1/0/0)
N Iowa 26-2 (Ranks 21, 11, 23)/ (Wins 7/1/1/0)

To me, Wichita St and N Iowa should be tossed out because they just do not belong with the lack of top 50 wins. OU's biggest flaw is our overall record but UNC has the same issue. And while Utah, N Dame, Maryland, and Arkansas have nice records, they do not have the wins that OU does. As of today, I would rank the teams as follows:

Iowa State
OU
Baylor
Maryland
Utah
Notre Dame
UNC
Arkansas

But, really it depends whether the committee values top 50/30/10 wins, overall record, or computer rankings. You could make a decent argument for almost any ranking of those 8 teams.

That is a good summary Kyle. I would probably rank the prospective 3-seed teams as followed (as of today):
Iowa State
Maryland
OU
Utah
Notre Dame (4)
UNC (4)
Baylor (4)
Louisvile (4)
Northern Iowa (5)
Wichita St (5)
Arkansas (5)
VCU (5)

I think the group of teams above make up most/all of the teams that have a shot at a 3 seed. Like you said, I don't think Northern Iowa or Wichita will have the resume when all is said and done. I think VCU (minus Briante Weber) is going to lose another game or two. Louisville didn't really look like a 3-seed...even before they kicked off Chris Jones. UNC is too up & down and will lose several more games this season. Arkansas doesn't have, nor will they have, the quality wins needed....unless they beat Kentucky. The other teams not mentioned have a real possibility.

 

[jackson_supersooner]

JMO but I think if OU won out(which they won't) and finished 25-8 they would be a 2 seed. I feel like who ever finishes the Big 12 conference the best between ou ISU and KU will get a 2 seed. ISU could probably win there remaining games (in turn winning big 12 title) then lose in the conference championship and still get a 2 seed. and then I think KU could probably get a 2 seed by just winning the conference reg season title and losing in semis of big 12 tourney. I just think their resume and RPI is so good they could pull that off. But for ou to even THINK about a 2 seed they would HAVE to win out. That would mean they would be 12-4 against RPI top 50s going into Big 12 tourney and Then they would, more then likely, play 2 ranked teams there. So your looking at 14-4 against RPI top 50 teams and then the selection committee is always about "what did you do in your last 10 games". So they would be 9-1 with 6 wins over top 50 and a big 12 reg season title and conference tourney title. They would take the place of ISU or KU as the 2 seed IMO. But that would be the ONLY possible way they could get that high.

 

[Zimwillett]

This typically isn't the case. The exceptions being teams that were outside of the bubble that may move into the tournament as a 10/11 seed or a team moving from a 10 to an 8....based upon their performance in conference tournaments. The higher the seed (if you're solidly in the tournament field already), the less movement you usually see/anticipate because the committee has an idea of where they are seeding you. Not to say that it has never happened, but I would be very surprised if we saw a team like WV (who is probably in the 5-6 seed range) jump up to a 3 seed if they won the Big 12.

Exactly. People always overestimate the impact conference tournaments have on seeding. The committee bases their seeding on a team's entire body of work, and thus, typically has the brackets all but set before the conference tournaments are finished. Of course, there are instances where a really bad loss or a great win or two might cause a team to slide up or down a line, but that's about it.

 

[soonertravis]

Does the early season tournament outcome(UNC losing to Butler, Oklahoma beating Butler) have any impact on seeding OU v. UNC head-to-head? Maybe as a tiebreaker? Curious as to everyone's thoughts.

 

[stormspencer]

JMO but I think if OU won out(which they won't) and finished 25-8 they would be a 2 seed. I feel like who ever finishes the Big 12 conference the best between ou ISU and KU will get a 2 seed.

This could be the case. I think that KU is definitely the most vulnerable 2 seed. I think the other 7 teams (Kentucky, Duke, Virginia, Gonzaga, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Villanova) are pretty much locked in as a 1 or 2 seed. For any chance at a 2, we have to run the table.....and that still wouldn't guarantee us a 2. Having said that, I'm ok with a 3 seed as long as we are playing well going into the tournament.