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Big 12 preview: 1-2 punch gives conference upper hand
Nov. 6, 2009
By Gary Parrish

Why is the Big 12 the nation's best conference?

Because of the strength at the top.

In Kansas and Texas, the league has two legitimate national championship contenders, and I don't think any other league has that many. Sure, multiple leagues have multiple teams talented enough to make the Final Four (the Big Ten with Michigan State and Purdue; the Big East with Villanova, Connecticut and West Virginia; the ACC with North Carolina and Duke). But do you really think Villanova or UConn can win the whole thing?

What about Duke?

Or Purdue?

Honestly, I don't.

But I absolutely believe Kansas and Texas have the type of rosters necessary to not just win a lot of games and make the Final Four, but to do both of those things and also cut the nets on the first Monday in April. Additionally, the league has at least three serious candidates for National Player of the Year (Willie Warren, Cole Aldrich and Sherron Collins), and that's why the Big 12 gets the nod as the nation's best conference, because it could very well end up with the nation's best team and the nation's best player.

Let's take a closer look.

(Schools listed in predicted order of finish)

1. Kansas

The Jayhawks return every relevant player from a 27-win team and add a top 10 recruiting class featuring Xavier Henry, Elijah Johnson and Thomas Robinson. Thanks to Sherron Collins, Tyshawn Taylor, the Morris twins and Cole Aldrich, Kansas is talented and deep at every position, perhaps even better suited to win a national title than the 2007-08 team that won a national title. That's crazy, but true. So while the offseason was undeniably rough (fight with the football team, Brady Morningstar's arrest, etc.), the actual season should be quite the opposite. There's no way to justify putting anybody else atop a preseason ranking.

2. Texas

Similar to the way this might be Bill Self's most talented Kansas team ever, Texas' Rick Barnes has a roster that could top any he has coached, including the one T.J. Ford led to a Final Four. Texas has NBA-level players at four positions (freshmen Avery Bradley at shooting guard, freshman Jordan Hamilton on the wing, seniors Damion James and Dexter Pittman up front), and a dynamic freshman point guard named J'Covan Brown who seems to impress everybody who watches a Texas practice or pickup game, including myself. Add Justin Mason, Gary Johnson, Varez Ward, Dogus Balbay and Jai Lucas (Florida transfer who is eligible in December) to the mix, and Barnes will have a hell of a time trying to find enough minutes to keep everybody happy. But, as they say, that's a nice problem to have.

3. Oklahoma

Blake Griffin is gone, and OU will slip because of it. But anybody suggesting it will be a deep drop doesn't understand the talent of Willie Warren or the level of recruits Jeff Capel enrolled. Let's start with Warren. He passed up millions of dollars to return to school, just like Griffin did last year, and the payoff could feature the high-scoring guard taking National Player of the Year honors, just like Griffin did last season. As for the recruits, two of them -- Keith "Tiny" Gallon and Tommy Mason-Griffin -- will start. Gallon is a 6-foot-9 forward who got 10 points and nine rebounds in OU's first exhibition while Mason-Griffin, a 5-11 point guard, finished with 12 points and five assists. They'll be key figures in keeping the Sooners near the top of the Big 12 this season (and next season, too.)

4. Kansas State

The question when Kansas State hired Frank Martin wasn't whether he could win with Michael Beasley as much as it was whether he would hold the program together after Beasley's one year in college. Those concerns should be gone by now, because Martin led the Wildcats to 22 wins in what was supposed to be a transitional season, and now he has a roster good enough to make the NCAA tournament for the second time in three years. It starts with Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen, a dynamic backcourt that combined to average 28.9 points per game last season. Add to that UConn transfer Curtis Kelly and McDonald's All-American Wally Judge, and KSU has the pieces to be good. I'm not sure they can crack the top two, but third in the Big 12 is achievable.

5. Oklahoma State

Byron Eaton averaged 14.3 points and 5.7 assists last season while leading the Cowboys to the NCAA tournament. Now he's gone, and there is no automatic replacement, even with multiple point guards on the roster. The new starter probably should be Ray Penn, the most heralded of three freshman points Travis Ford enrolled; it likely will be, in time. But Keiton Page, who is clearly more comfortable off the ball, will reportedly start at the point in OSU's first exhibition, which implies Penn isn't grasping things the way Ford hoped. Either way, James Anderson (18.2 points and 5.7 assists per game) and Obi Muonelo (12.7 points and 7.2 rebounds per game) are back, and that should be enough to keep the Cowboys in contention for another trip to the NCAA tournament. Anderson, in particular, is a serious All-American candidate.

6. Texas A&M

Donald Sloan is the Aggies' leading returning scorer, and he looked that way in Thursday night's exhibition win over something called Texas A&M-Commerce. The senior guard got 17 points in 26 minutes while Bryan Davis added 10 points and 10 rebounds in 20 minutes. That's a good sign that the core is solid enough to help Mark Turgeon win an NCAA tournament game for the second consecutive season despite the loss of Chinemelu Elonu, who left school early to enter the NBA Draft. He's now playing in Spain.

7. Missouri

Mike Anderson had a job-establishing season last season, the kind that quiets critics and secures an extension for more money. Good for him. But the losses of DeMarre Carroll, Leo Lyons and Matt Lawrence -- i.e., the Tigers' top three scorers -- means a slip is inevitable, even with J.T. Tiller, Zaire Taylor and Kim English still around to provide an experienced nucleus. The good news is that English, by all accounts, really put in work this summer, and he's primed for a breakthrough season. The sophomore guard got 32 points in a recent scrimmage. If he develops into a serious scoring threat, Missouri might be able to sneak back into the NCAA tournament.

8. Iowa State

Craig Brackins is the best college player not enough people have seen play. But the nation will have an opportunity to watch the 6-10 junior this season, most notably in a nationally televised game against Duke on Jan. 6. Brackins averaged 20.2 points and 9.5 rebounds last season, both numbers more than doubling ISU's second-leading scorer and rebounder. And that's the problem. Brackins is as good as anybody in the Big 12, but no player is good enough to win by himself in this league. The hope is that junior college transfer Marquis Gilstrap can play the role of reliable sidekick. The 6-7 wing averaged 22.6 points and 10.1 rebounds at Gulf Coast Community College last season. He got 14 points in an exhibition win over Black Hills State.

9. Baylor

Scott Drew has recorded back-to-back 20-win seasons even though last season was, overall, a disappointment. The Bears were supposed to challenge for a Big 12 title; they instead finished 5-11 in the league but made a run to the Big 12 tournament title game. After losing to Missouri, Baylor accepted a bid to the NIT, where it beat Georgetown, Virginia Tech, Auburn and San Diego State before losing to Penn State in the title game. In other words, Baylor finished strong, won seven of its final nine games, and I could tell you it's something to build on, except that three of the top five scorers from that team are gone, including Curtis Jerrells (16.3 points per game). As usual, Drew has recruited well; he got a nice late pickup in the form of Nolan Dennis, a former Memphis recruit. But Baylor is relying on too many new faces to compete with the top third of the Big 12, and the fan base will likely be left to wait until Class of 2010 star Perry Jones arrives next season before hopes of another NCAA tournament appearance become realistic.

10. Texas Tech

There is nothing simple about coaching at Texas Tech or following Bob Knight, and Pat Knight has learned both of those things pretty quickly. He's 7-19 in the Big 12 since replacing his father in the middle of the 2007-08 season. The Red Raiders won just three Big 12 games last season and were terrible defensively. But every relevant player except Alan Voskuil is back on campus, meaning Knight has lots of experienced players to rely upon. Of course, they are the same players who just finished 3-13 in the league. So whether that's a good thing remains undetermined, and if there isn't notable improvement, fans will further question whether the succession plan that allowed the father to hand the program to his son was a wise move or a shortsighted mistake.

11. Nebraska

Doc Sadler is respected in the business, and he has improved in the Big 12 each of his three seasons. But it's difficult to win in a power conference without the proper talent, and it can't be overlooked that the Huskers are operating without their top two scorers, Ade Dagunduro (12.8 ppg) and Steve Harley (10.2 ppg). That means it will be a challenge to do better than the 8-8 Big 12 record Nebraska posted last season, although Sadler's approach to defense will keep the Huskers in games they otherwise shouldn't be in.

12. Colorado

Not too long ago Colorado went to Air Force, lured Jeff Bzdelik and made him the highest-paid basketball coach in school history. Folks were excited. But there isn't a single thing that has happened since that suggests the program is headed in the right direction, and Bzdelik spending part of this offseason flirting with the idea of returning to the NBA, even as an assistant, didn't help. The Buffaloes are 4-28 in the Big 12 in Bzdelik's two seasons, finishing last in the league both times. Predictably, they're the obvious pick to finish last in the league again, and Chauncey Billups isn't walking through that door.