Current NCAA Tournament Probabilities

[DSMok1]

Using the same methodology I did in my pre-tournament analysis:

Rank	Seed	Team		VsTourn	8	4	2	Champ
25	9	Northern Iowa	0.5804	49.4%	21.1%	7.9%	2.6%
22	5	Michigan St.	0.5872	50.6%	21.9%	8.4%	2.8%
33	6	Tennessee	0.5478	36.2%	17.0%	6.3%	2.1%
7	2	Ohio St.	0.6835	64.2%	40.0%	20.6%	9.7%

3	1	Syracuse	0.7398	68.0%	41.5%	26.3%	13.5%
19	5	Butler		0.5959	31.7%	13.5%	6.3%	2.1%
17	6	Xavier		0.5976	37.3%	13.8%	6.3%	2.1%
6	2	Kansas St.	0.6945	62.8%	30.9%	17.8%	8.0%

4	1	Kentucky	0.7168	55.2%	31.7%	14.2%	7.9%
10	12	Cornell		0.6505	45.1%	23.5%	9.5%	4.8%
28	11	Washington	0.5624	38.1%	15.0%	5.1%	2.1%
5	2	West Virginia	0.7115	63.7%	32.4%	13.9%	7.5%

1	1	Duke		0.8271	75.2%	57.2%	40.9%	29.0%
13	4	Purdue		0.6378	24.6%	12.8%	5.8%	2.7%
12	3	Baylor		0.6459	60.3%	20.4%	9.8%	4.7%
29	10	St. Mary's	0.5597	39.5%	9.5%	3.5%	1.3%

Rank is the rank of all 65 tournament teams; vs. Tourn is winning percentage vs. all tournament teams, and the odds are the likelihoods of winning in each round.

Teams to look out for: Cornell is now ranked 10th in the whole tournament. They're hot and they play up to the level of their competition. Kentucky plays down.

That said... Kentucky is way more athletic than Cornell. That will be an interesting game, for sure!

Ohio St. has the easiest road to the Final 4, by a long shot. Duke's road isn't too bad either.

 

[dyner]

thanks. your insight has been very helpful thus far. if gambling was legal, of course...