Expectations and Recruiting

[thebigabd]

Jeff Capel is being labeled as an elite recruiter, and having recruited the #1 draft pick (Blake), a future lottery pick (Warren), a MCDAA point guard (TMG), and another potential first round pick (Tiny Gallon) perhaps that title is rightfully placed.

However, at what point do elite recruits increase expectations and put pressure on him to win conference championships and get to the Final Four? Take last season for example. That team won 30 games and went to the Elite 8, but despite having 3 NBA players (Griffin, Griffin, and Warren) they came away from the year without a regular season, conference tournament, or final four banner with them. That does not mean the season was for not, but it would have been nice for a team featuring a couple of lottery picks and the national player of the year to bring some team accomplishments to Norman.

This year Capel has 3 Mcdonalds All-Americans, 2 NBA Players, and a core of seasoned veterans such as Cade Davis, Tony Crocker, and Ryan Wright as role players. Then you have unknown yet highly regarded newcomers such as Stephen Pledger (who some have called a top 5 shooter in the 2009 class), Ray Willis (a top 100 recruit), Andrew Fitzgerald (a top 100 recruit), and Orlando Allen (a project who by all accounts has made great progress).

Yet, despite having these McDonalds All-Americans, NBA players, veteran role players, and a plethora of top 100 recruits OU is not expected to amount to much this year, with a Sweet 16 seeming to be best-case scenario amongst the fans and there is probably less expectation in the preseason national media. Why?

Are the low expectations (considering the amount of talent) based on OU's perceived youth? The loss of Blake Griffin? A lack of confidence in Capel as a coach?

 

[hoopmaster]

For me, I feel like Oklahoma has the guards to be able to make a deep, deep run. I just worry about the inside game. I think Tiny will definitely be a very good player offensively, but I worry about rebounding and interior defense. Capel has done a great job developing guard depth, but the interior depth has not yet developed. If Wright or Allen can step up defensively it would be huge and would change my expectations, but really both post positions will be unproven in 2009-10. Tiny looks to be a huge (no pun intended) offensive threat but Allen and Wright were both unimpressive most of the time last season.

I think OU takes that next step when the post depth improves. So I guess my "low" expectations (Sweet 16 would be a great year) would be the result of losing our three best post players from last season (Griffin's and Pattillo) and replacing them with a freshman and two guys who averaged just over 10 minutes per game combined last year.

 

[tomkar98]

Jeff Capel is being labeled as an elite recruiter, and having recruited the #1 draft pick (Blake), a future lottery pick (Warren), a MCDAA point guard (TMG), and another potential first round pick (Tiny Gallon) perhaps that title is rightfully placed.

However, at what point do elite recruits increase expectations and put pressure on him to win conference championships and get to the Final Four? Take last season for example. That team won 30 games and went to the Elite 8, but despite having 3 NBA players (Griffin, Griffin, and Warren) they came away from the year without a regular season, conference tournament, or final four banner with them. That does not mean the season was for not, but it would have been nice for a team featuring a couple of lottery picks and the national player of the year to bring some team accomplishments to Norman.

This year Capel has 3 Mcdonalds All-Americans, 2 NBA Players, and a core of seasoned veterans such as Cade Davis, Tony Crocker, and Ryan Wright as role players. Then you have unknown yet highly regarded newcomers such as Steven Pledger (who some have called a top 5 shooter in the 2009 class), Ray Willis (a top 100 recruit), Andrew Fitzgerald (a top 100 recruit), and Orlando Allen (a project who by all accounts has made great progress).

Yet, despite having these McDonalds All-Americans, NBA players, veteran role players, and a plethora of top 100 recruits OU is not expected to amount to much this year, with a Sweet 16 seeming to be best-case scenario amongst the fans and there is probably less expectation in the preseason national media. Why?

Are the low expectations (considering the amount of talent) based on OU's perceived youth? The loss of Blake Griffin? A lack of confidence in Capel as a coach?

Fixed it! haha

I will go ahead and say that I expect just about the same as last year in the NCAA (A 2nd weekend visit). As for the conference season title I'm not sure, we will see. I do think we will make more noise in the Big XII tournament, and maybe even win it.

As for your questions at the end.... I think it is a combination of The loss of Blake and the perceived youth on our lineup. I HOPE Capel has proven himself well enough for the last question to be thrown out. The past few years, I have seen Capel get this team ready for games that I had questions we would win. Certainly we have experienced some bad losses.... But Capel got us 30 wins last year and 23 wins the year before. I'm not sure about you guys, but I think 53 wins in two seasons (and 69 overall, with a 67.6% winning percentage; Both of which are records for the 1st three seasons for an OU Head Coach) is a tremendous COACHING accomplishment. Not a "Recruiting" accomplishment.

 

[SoonerBounce13]

Injuries happen

 

[coolm]

I have wondered when someone would say we should've done better with 3 NBA players last year.

 

[campbest]

Last year was a prime example of how coaches always say, to win a championship involves a lot of "luck". Whether it be fortuitous call or avoiding the injury bug, "luck" has a lot to do with it. Losing Blake for the second half at Texas, entire KU game and having to play at Mizzou considerably hurt our seeding where we were placed in a bracket with UNC.

Now, the margin for error increases when you build a program that continually has support guys who are high impact players. No disrespect to last year's team, but besides Willie, Blake and Taylor...inconsistency was the name of the game.

You look at all the teams which make Final Four runs every year, and their programs levitate on the number 3, 4 and 5 options ability to pick up the team when the stars may be having a bit of an off night or are held in check by the opposition. Last year we didn't have that on a consistent basis.

 

[Sooner23]

My expectations aren't as high as most here for one reason — our big men.

I think Tiny is going to come in and be a really nice player. Maybe average 12 points and eight boards a game, but it's the other slot that concerns me. I like Ryan and Orlando, they seem like great kids, but even though we really haven't seen them that much, I just can't see them as anything more than role players off the bench for a Final Four type team, and we're likely going to be relying on 25-30 minutes from one of those two.

I'm also concerned about them, and their style of play, being matched up alongside a player of the style of Gallon. In today's game, a majority of the bigs they are going to be facing are going to be a lot more agile and quicker than what I've seen from them. It just concerns me having two of them on the floor at the same time, and if we do I see us playing a lot of zone.

Last year we matched up well inside because of Taylor's versatility, but I don't see us being able to do that this year. And I really have no idea what to expect from Fitzgerald. I mean, from what I've seen on film, he looks like he's got a chance to be more than a role type player. But who really knows how these freshmen will react?

As for the "we have X amount of McDonald's All-Americans so we should be a Final Four" thinking, I just don't get that thought with Gallon and TMG. Yeah, they're talented guys who made that game, but I don't see either of them as dominating type McDonald's All-Americans. Like a John Wall and Derrick Favors will be as freshmen.

Those guys will grow into more of a dominating role as sophomores and juniors, and then when we add some more pieces to them (hopefully in this next class) we become the Final Four type team. Look at Kansas' last core group (Chalmers, Rush, Arthur etc.) that won a title. They struggled early in their freshman year, improved over the course of the year, but then still got beat in the first round that year. Yet they grew together and with experience were key parts of the title run a few years later.

So I see this as more of a grinding 4-6 type NCAA seed this year, and then make a run next year if we can add some more pieces (big time wing and athletic PF type like Jones) to go with a more experienced TMG, Tiny, Pledger, Fitz etc. Hope I'm wrong though and this team can get to the Sweet 16 and beyond this year.

 

[BigTime]

Yet, despite having these McDonalds All-Americans, NBA players, veteran role players, and a plethora of top 100 recruits OU is not expected to amount to much this year, with a Sweet 16 seeming to be best-case scenario amongst the fans and there is probably less expectation in the preseason national media. Why?

There are fans on that thread that are anticipating that this group can go higher than the second round or sweet sixteen. You are one of the ones that said max SS, so why don't you tell us?

Your post kinda rubs me the wrong way for some reason. I realize what you are getting at, but it seems to me that it doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that losing your top three post players, a 4 year starting PG, and an experienced back-up pg, might make fans temper their expectations. OSU had two burger boys and another 5 star on last year's team, yet their fans didn't even think they would make the tournament.....

Expectations vary from season to season depending on the circumstances.

 

[AdaSooner]

Coach Capel's teams have met all of my expectations in his first three seasons. With NCAA sanctions hanging over our heads, plus a near disastrous outcome with our recruiting class going into that season, I really didn't expect too much the first year.

I thought OU recovered nicely with a 23-12 record in the second season that included a top four finish in conference and a return to the NCAA tourney, bowing out to a tough Louisville team.

With the injuries we faced last season, particularly to Blake Griffin, I don't see how anyone could be unhappy with a 30-9 record and being one of eight of sixty-four teams still standing after the first three rounds of the NCAA tourney? That is, unless a final four or a national championship is the only thing that floats your boat as a fan? That does not describe me.

Would I like to see us go to the final four every season and win a NC? Sure, who wouldn't? But, I'm very happy (content even) with where we are as a program at the moment, especially with recruiting. Now, if we haven't cracked a final four with the recruits we're bringing in two or three years from now, I might want to rethink my position. Ask me again in a few years?

 

[BigTime]

Coach Capel's teams have met all of my expectations in his first three seasons. With NCAA sanctions hanging over our heads, plus a near disastrous outcome with our recruiting class going into that season, I really didn't expect too much the first year.

I thought OU recovered nicely with a 23-12 record in the second season that included a top four finish in conference and a return to the NCAA tourney, bowing out to a tough Louisville team.

With the injuries we faced last season, particularly to Blake Griffin, I don't see how anyone could be unhappy with a 30-9 record and being one of eight of sixty-four teams still standing after the first three rounds of the NCAA tourney? That is, unless a final four or a national championship is the only thing that floats your boat as a fan? That does not describe me.

Would I like to see us go to the final four every season and win a NC? Sure, who wouldn't? But, I'm very happy (content even) with where we are as a program at the moment, especially with recruiting. Now, if we haven't cracked a final four with the recruits we're bringing in two or three years from now, I might want to rethink my position. Ask me again in a few years?

:clap My thoughts exactly.

 

[Krugerfan52]

Most magazines had us in the NIT in Capel's 2nd year and they made it to the 2nd round of the NCAA despite injuries to both starting big men and losing another big man in Moose.

Then last year a team that most had picked to make it to the Elite 8, made it there and lost to the #1 seed, National Champions.

I'd say Capel has achieved just fine his first two years, and for us to expect a final four with a team that has less proven players than either of the past two doesn't make much sense.

 

[Cheno]

However, at what point do elite recruits increase expectations and put pressure on him to win conference championships and get to the Final Four?

What you are leaving out is how good the Big 12 is and how hard it is to make a FF4. I'm seriously last year they very easily could have made it just ran into the national champs in the E8.

That team won 30 games and went to the Elite 8, but despite having 3 NBA players (Griffin, Griffin, and Warren) they came away from the year without a regular season, conference tournament, or final four banner with them.

Sounds good until you look deeper and see that KU had more NBA players and UNC had many more NBA players. Look deeper than the surface.

Yet, despite having these McDonalds All-Americans, NBA players, veteran role players, and a plethora of top 100 recruits OU is not expected to amount to much this year, with a Sweet 16 seeming to be best-case scenario amongst the fans and there is probably less expectation in the preseason national media. Why?

Well look just inside the Big 12 and OU is picked 3rd. Why 3rd behind KU & Texas? Because KU and Texas have more NBA players, more MCDAA's and more top 100 recruits. So I guess your answer is keep recruiting which Capel is doing. It's not like OU's not doing it in a weak conference...they are doing it in one of the best conferences in the country. By your NBA/MCDAA only analogy why would they be expected to compete for a Big 12 title. They are behind KU & Texas in those two area's.

Are the low expectations (considering the amount of talent) based on OU's perceived youth? The loss of Blake Griffin? A lack of confidence in Capel as a coach?

I wouldn't call 3rd in the Big 12 when the top 2 teams are believed to be top 5 teams as "low expectations".
Again, you've got to look at it relatively to how good KU and Texas are.
Capel came into a program on probation and scrambling backwards. KU and Texas have been on the rise. Capel has done an unbelievable job of closing the gap in such a short time.

 

[Seymore Cox]

OU has not really had a bunch of elite recruits. It's been Blake Griffin and Willie Warren. This will be the first year they have what I consider three elite recruits in Fitz, TMG, and Gallon.

 

[tomkar98]

OU has not really had a bunch of elite recruits. It's been Blake Griffin and Willie Warren. This will be the first year they have what I consider three elite recruits in Fitz, TMG, and Gallon.

That is also a great point to make. I love the fact that it seems that every class Capel brings in, becomes better after each year. Sure that will slow down a bit. But lets hope the ride continues to rise for just a bit longer.... and stalls ONLY at the top amongst the rest of the elite!

 

[FaithfulSooner]

What ADA said. BOOMER SOONER BABY!!!:clap

 

[shytnik]

Coach Capel's teams have met all of my expectations in his first three seasons. With NCAA sanctions hanging over our heads, plus a near disastrous outcome with our recruiting class going into that season, I really didn't expect too much the first year.

I thought OU recovered nicely with a 23-12 record in the second season that included a top four finish in conference and a return to the NCAA tourney, bowing out to a tough Louisville team.

With the injuries we faced last season, particularly to Blake Griffin, I don't see how anyone could be unhappy with a 30-9 record and being one of eight of sixty-four teams still standing after the first three rounds of the NCAA tourney? That is, unless a final four or a national championship is the only thing that floats your boat as a fan? That does not describe me.

Would I like to see us go to the final four every season and win a NC? Sure, who wouldn't? But, I'm very happy (content even) with where we are as a program at the moment, especially with recruiting. Now, if we haven't cracked a final four with the recruits we're bringing in two or three years from now, I might want to rethink my position. Ask me again in a few years?

Great post. I am extremely happy with Capel and what he is doing. My expectations are a bit lower because we aren't deep with the bigs and they are just unproven. I still think we will have a good year, but I am not looking for a national championship year. Still, I love what Capel is brining.

Kentucky, Duke, NC, Kansas, UConn teams like that have MCAA's and NBA players every year. Some years they have 4 or 5 and still don't win it all. It's really a very difficult task to accomplish no matter your talent level.

Another issue with the national media not expecting much is that OU relied so heavily on B. Griffin last year, they expect no one can fill the gap. I think we will be a better team because the ball will be spread around more, but I see their point. Plus Kansas and Texas have tremendous talent this year and the Big XII is expected to be one of the toughest conferences this year. All that works against OU having high expectations.

 

[tomkar98]

Great post. I am extremely happy with Capel and what he is doing. My expectations are a bit lower because we aren't deep with the bigs and they are just unproven. I still think we will have a good year, but I am not looking for a national championship year. Still, I love what Capel is brining.

Kentucky, Duke, NC, Kansas, UConn teams like that have MCAA's and NBA players every year. Some years they have 4 or 5 and still don't win it all. It's really a very difficult task to accomplish no matter your talent level.

Another issue with the national media not expecting much is that OU relied so heavily on B. Griffin last year, they expect no one can fill the gap. I think we will be a better team because the ball will be spread around more, but I see their point. Plus Kansas and Texas have tremendous talent this year and the Big XII is expected to be one of the toughest conferences this year. All that works against OU having high expectations.

You mention the depth of the Big 12 and it brings to mind the question... Would 8 teams making the dance, be out of the realm of possibility?

I think anything less than 7 is a less than expected turnout in the dance this coming year. I'm not sure, but I think we have had 7 in the dance before. It is certainly possible this year. What about 8?

Here is my breakdown:

The teams that will make it:
Kansas
Kansas State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas

Those that have a very good chance:
Baylor
Iowa State
Texas A&M

Those that might make it:
Colorado
Missouri

Then the rest:
Nebraska
Texas Tech

Like I said, I think 7 is the base.... and if it is less than that, I will be disappointed. I would probably have to say that I think Baylor will be the 6th in, ISU would be the 7th in and A&M being the 8th. However, Mizzou might surprise us. Or an ABD pick might surprise us as well!

 

[SoonerfanTU]

Colorado "might" make it?

No chance.

 

[BigTime]

Colorado "might" make it?

No chance.

haha Tom is trying to get on abd's good side.

 

[SoonerfanTU]

haha Tom is trying to get on abd's good side.

Well, he's going about it the right way. lol