Four Stats - Seeding Discussion

[pnkranger]

I want to throw out three stats that I believe will help us surprise some people with a higher seed than anticipated on selection sunday:

* We have 9 wins vs. RPI top 50. Only four schools have more: Kansas (12), Arizona, Wisconsin and Iowa State (10 each). Two other teams have 9 wins: Syracuse and Michigan. All six of those schools are projected to get a top 3 seed.

* 2nd place in the Big 12. Toughest RPI conference in America and we won 2nd outright. The 2nd place teams for the other top 5 conferences are projected to have top 3 seeds. . The ACC is projected to have three teams seeded in the top 3 seeds, and it is the 5th rated conference.

* 9-5 road record. Best road record in the Big 12 overall. Tied for the best road record in conference (5-4). A winning road record in the toughest conference in America.

* 5 of 6 to close out the Big 12. 4 of 5 wins by double digits, including double digit wins over KSU, WVU (who blasted KU in their next game), and UT.

Holding us back: That ridiculous home loss to Texas Tech, the overtime loss to WVU on the road and the home loss to Louisiana Tech. If we had taken even one of those three (preferably the home loss to TTU), we would be a lock for a 4 seed with a chance for a 2 if we win the big 12 tourney.

 

[Chaser728]

I want to throw out three stats that I believe will help us surprise some people with a higher seed than anticipated on selection sunday:

* We have 9 wins vs. RPI top 50. Only four schools have more: Kansas (12), Arizona, Wisconsin and Iowa State (10 each). Two other teams have 9 wins: Syracuse and Michigan. All six of those schools are projected to get a top 3 seed.

* 2nd place in the Big 12. Toughest RPI conference in America and we won 2nd outright. The 2nd place teams for the other top 5 conferences are projected to have top 3 seeds. . The ACC is projected to have three teams seeded in the top 3 seeds, and it is the 5th rated conference.

* 9-5 road record. Best road record in the Big 12 overall. Tied for the best road record in conference (5-4). A winning road record in the toughest conference in America.

* 5 of 6 to close out the Big 12. 4 of 5 wins by double digits, including double digit wins over KSU, WVU (who blasted KU in their next game), and UT.

Holding us back: That ridiculous home loss to Texas Tech, the overtime loss to WVU on the road and the home loss to Louisiana Tech. If we had taken even one of those three (preferably the home loss to TTU), we would be a lock for a 4 seed with a chance for a 2 if we win the big 12 tourney.

I think all just comes down to reputation/prestige; and right now our stock is rising, but not solid. The mere fact that, as you said, that 3 ACC teams have been projected to be 3 seeds and play in a worse conference (at least according to RPI). Of course Virginia is an exception to that rule. But those blue blood schools are always going to get that kind of consideration. Let's just force their hand by winning the Big 12 Tourney.

 

[pnkranger]

I want to throw out three stats that I believe will help us surprise some people with a higher seed than anticipated on selection sunday:

* We have 9 wins vs. RPI top 50. Only four schools have more: Kansas (12), Arizona, Wisconsin and Iowa State (10 each). Two other teams have 9 wins: Syracuse and Michigan. All six of those schools are projected to get a top 3 seed.

* 2nd place in the Big 12. Toughest RPI conference in America and we won 2nd outright. The 2nd place teams for the other top 5 conferences are projected to have top 3 seeds. . The ACC is projected to have three teams seeded in the top 3 seeds, and it is the 5th rated conference.

* 9-5 road record. Best road record in the Big 12 overall. Tied for the best road record in conference (5-4). A winning road record in the toughest conference in America.

* 5 of 6 to close out the Big 12. 4 of 5 wins by double digits, including double digit wins over KSU, WVU (who blasted KU in their next game), and UT.

Holding us back: That ridiculous home loss to Texas Tech, the overtime loss to WVU on the road and the home loss to Louisiana Tech. If we had taken even one of those three (preferably the home loss to TTU), we would be a lock for a 4 seed with a chance for a 2 if we win the big 12 tourney.

Also, no signature win...KU or MSU or Iowa State on the road would have pushed us over the top.

 

[tsou89]

I think we could make a little hay in the conference tournament with a run but not enough to boost us past a 4 seed. Like Chaser said our reputation doesn't seem totally repaired from the down days. I actually would like to see this team stuck in another situation that somehow tells them they aren't good enough or deserving. They've been great when an underdog. Maybe a 5 seed (although I think we could end up deserving of a better seed)
Where we beat a 4 seed that's reeling and catch a #1 seed that we match up with in a good way.

Really happy for this group to accomplish what they have to this point. They're unselfish and humble…like their coach. And that's definitely a compliment!

 

[scrybe]

I think a 3-seed is within reach if we win the Big 12 Tournament. In fact, with our resume, I don't see how the committee would be able to give us a lower seed. If we should lose in the first round of the conference tournament, I would dare not hope for better than a 5-seed.

I think they will look for any reason to nail us with as bad a seed as possible. That's just life for us these days as Sooners.

 

[mict085]

I think a 3-seed is within reach if we win the Big 12 Tournament. In fact, with our resume, I don't see how the committee would be able to give us a lower seed. If we should lose in the first round of the conference tournament, I would dare not hope for better than a 5-seed.

I think they will look for any reason to nail us with as bad a seed as possible. That's just life for us these days as Sooners.

I agree with this.

 

[DenverSooner]

I will give you some other things to consider:

1 - All five of OU's starters average double figures (Spangler is actually 9.9) and all have scored over 15 points (Cousins, Woodard, Hield and Clark have gone for over 20 in a game).

2- Six players are shooting over 35.8% from 3 point range plus OU has Hornbeak who should be one of the better 3 point shooters on the team. 3 guys are shooting over 40% from 3 point range

3. OU has a solid 9 man rotation. The bench has improved a lot. Bennett, Booker and Hornbeak are playing much better basketball now than they were in November and December. OU's bench averages 21 points a game.

4. OU's defense is a lot better than it was six weeks ago.

 

[oukyle]

Also, no signature win...KU or MSU or Iowa State on the road would have pushed us over the top.

I think that is the biggest thing holding OU back. Our resume is great against some good teams, but we have 1 top 25 win. Of the other top 20 RPI teams (teams you would assume are battling it out for the 1-4 seeds), only Nova, Wichita State, Cincinnati, and Kentucky have only 1 top 25 RPI win. I think we are solidly a 4 or 5 seed team, with a small chance to be a 3 seed. I don't see much chance of OU being seeded ahead of the following:

Arizona
Florida
Kansas
Wichita St
Wisconsin
Duke
Syracuse
Michigan
Virginia
San Diego St
Villanova

That is 11 teams that I think are solidly ahead of OU. Then you have several others like UNC, Creighton, ISU, Cincy, Louisville, and Michigan State that are in the same discussion as OU. All are probably fighting for that last 3 seed. You could argue we have as much claim to it as the others if we do some damage this weekend.

 

[SoonerSpock]

I think a 3 seed is more than possible if we win the conference and we are definitely a 4 seed unless we lose our first game in the B12. That being said, I am concerned about catching Baylor at the wrong time. The bears have won 6 of their last seven. Losing only to Texas in Austin in a close game (74-69). They also had wins in Manhattan and Morgantown and we know how difficult it is to win there. Lastly, we all know how difficult it is to beat a team 3 times especially when they are on a roll and have an inside game.

I think we win but it will not be easy.

 

[dahldennsull]

I think a 3 seed is more than possible if we win the conference and we are definitely a 4 seed unless we lose our first game in the B12. That being said, I am concerned about catching Baylor at the wrong time. The bears have won 6 of their last seven. Losing only to Texas in Austin in a close game (74-69). They also had wins in Manhattan and Morgantown and we know how difficult it is to win there. Lastly, we all know how difficult it is to beat a team 3 times especially when they are on a roll and have an inside game.

I think we win but it will not be easy.

I agree they are definitely hot. I'm just hoping TCU gives them a tough enough game they can't coast and get the win, as they have to turn around and play us 20 hours after this first game will end. Sure these guys are young and in shape, but that second half while we are still running up and down the floor, you might see some tired legs if they had to press the night before.