I've been an OU basketball fan for more than 40 years. Playing in my backyard as a kid, I pretended to be Don Sidle hitting (occasionally) turnaround jump shots. I remember when we weren't very good (most of the 60s), the excitement of making the NIT in the early 70s when it actually meant something, and the rebirth of the program through the last 30 years.
Sadly, I think our program has reached a low point that we haven't seen since the 60s. We may be the worst major college team in a BCS conference. We are no longer trying to compete with Kansas or Texas - we are trying to tread water against Auburn, Colorado, and Oregon St.
Let's look at what happened tonight. We shot 61% from the field, 53% from behind the arc, stayed even in rebounds, and won the turnover battle. Yet we won by only 3 against a 4-8 Southland Conference team - at home. Chances are, we would finish in the middle of the Southland Conference.
At the same time this evening, Iowa State went to Virginia (a team that handled us easily in Hawaii) and won by 13. This is an Iowa State team expected to be at the bottom of the Big 12. Instead, we have a date with the Big 12 conference basement. I expected a 9-21 record when the season began, and I've seen nothing to make me change my mind. I doubt that we will win more than 1 or 2 games in conference play.
How did we get here? It breaks down to the players and the coach.
The Players
I know it sounds like I'm talking out of both sides of my mouth, but I appreciate the young men on the OU basketball team. They work hard and make a number of sacrifices to represent OU on the court. I would never boo them or disrespect their effort. That doesn't mean I can't evaluate their performance. So here goes.
Cade Davis - A fine role player on a high major program. He's just being asked to do too much on this team. He can provide some instant offense or a defensive spark, but he's better suited to a 15-20 min. per game role. Cade is an underrated athlete, and he gives his all every game. I wish he had re-tooled his shot (less arc), and I don't understand why his free throw shooting has not improved. Nevertheless, Cade has given his all to OU and he deserves a better fate.
Steven Pledger - He came in with a reputation as a shooter, and at times you can see why. But basically, he continues to be a shooter who can't make open threes consistently. I appreciate his work trying to help at point guard, but he doesn't have the skill set or mindset for a PG. Could be considered a high major player for some programs as a third or fourth guy off the bench - you let him play if he hits a few shots; otherwise you sit him down.
Andrew Fitzgerald - We have a shooter who can't shoot (Pledger) - Fitz is an inside player who can't rebound. He's not a good defensive player, and as such he's often in foul trouble. In his defense, he's undersized - but that just makes him a tweener (too short for the wing, too small for inside). I like his baseline jumper, but that just takes him out of the mix for rebounding. When he goes inside, he's a blocked shot waiting to happen, unless he has an open lane to the hoop. Some of this would be OK if he seemed to have a nose for the basketball like some other undersized inside players (Ernie Abercrombie comes to mind), but he doesn't seem to have good rebounding instincts.
Cameron Clark - I hope I'm wrong, but Cam seems to be a Tony Crocker starter kit. He seems to be dominant against sub-par competition, but disappears against big-time talent. Kinda like Crocker - he might get hot against Syracuse and then not show up against UNC. Not the kind of guy who can carry a team. It's still early - hopefully, he will continue to improve and become a difference maker.
Those are the only four players we have who can be considered high major talents. As for the others:
Carl Blair - A nice Southland Conference point guard. Some skills, but limited athletically.
Nick Thompson - Another big man who can't rebound. Too thin to have any inside impact, and not enough skills to help anywhere else.
C.J. Washington - He's a great story, and you can tell he plays hard. I like the way he goes after the ball, but he's obviously limited physically. Just not tall enough or wide enough to consistently compete at this level. Seems to have a nice 15-foot face-up shot, but has no inside, back-to-the-basket game.
Calvin Newell - Newell might have high major skills, but at his size he really needs to be a point guard, and he appears to have shooting guard skills. Nice quickness and hops, with some shooting ability - needs to learn to play under control. Perhaps he can turn into a contributor down the line.
Tyler Neal - Seems to be able to shoot, and has some hops. But he doesn't look big enough to play inside, and he doesn't seem quick enough to be a wing player. Perhaps he can work on his face-up game and add some Ryan Minor to his game.
Barry Honore - A nice low major player. Southern was a good spot for him. Just not athletic or skilled enough to contribute consistently at this level.
Kyle Hardrick -I appreciate Kyle selecting OU, but if he can't break into this rotation, he's obviously not Division I material.
Bottom line - As has been consistently noted, this team just doesn't have much talent. We thought talent was down in Capel's first year, but the key players on that team (Neal, Longar, Godbold, Carter, T. Griffin, Johnson) could step right in and start on this team. (Heck, is anyone missing Ryan Wright now?) And how did that happen???
The Coach
I think Jeff Capel can coach. He did a good job in his first year, taking over Sampson's leftovers and winning 16 games. Then he took Blake Griffin and a number of role players (plus Willie Warren in year 3) and turned them into an NCAA team - even advancing to the Elite 8.
I think the problem is that Jeff can't recruit - or he can't evaluate talent/character. He's brought in four high-major talented players - Blake, Warren, TMG, and Tiny. One came here because of his brother, and the others had ties to Coach O. Everyone else Capel has recruited either can't play (at a high level), can't stick around, or both.
Over the years OU has been "in" on a lot of good players - Barnes, Jones, Lamb, McCallum, etc. But these guys always go elsewhere. We've seen good Oklahoma players like Henry, Orton, and Clarke leave the state. Instead, OU has seen a revolving door of mediocre players - culminating in this last recruiting class, where Capel spent the spring picking up leftovers from around the country. And he's already lost two of those nine players, including one kid (T.J. Taylor) who was one of the supposed "gems" of the class.
Bottom Line
Despite all of this, I could handle it if it looked like there was any hope for the future. But I don't see any hope. Our November recruiting class consists of a transfer who couldn't make an impact at Mississippi State and a juco who doesn't evoke memories of Taj Gray.
I hope I'm wrong about my evaluations. I hope all our our players elevate their games in conference play and we are competitive. I hope we pull off some upsets and scare some of the big boys (it hurts me to say this, since it's implicit that we're not a "big boy"). I hope we bring in some high-major talent next year, and we jump back into the upper half of the conference.
But I just don't see it happening. With next year's round-robin schedule, we will be adding road games to places like Kansas, K-State, Missouri, and Iowa St. And we'll be losing two of the weaker teams in the conference. In addition, I think we'll continue to see poor attendance - to the point where it will be embarassing to see opposing fans celebrating in the LNC.
The future looks bleak - and Joe C. is going to have a difficult decision to make at the end of the year. I hope he makes the right choice.
Sadly, I think our program has reached a low point that we haven't seen since the 60s. We may be the worst major college team in a BCS conference. We are no longer trying to compete with Kansas or Texas - we are trying to tread water against Auburn, Colorado, and Oregon St.
Let's look at what happened tonight. We shot 61% from the field, 53% from behind the arc, stayed even in rebounds, and won the turnover battle. Yet we won by only 3 against a 4-8 Southland Conference team - at home. Chances are, we would finish in the middle of the Southland Conference.
At the same time this evening, Iowa State went to Virginia (a team that handled us easily in Hawaii) and won by 13. This is an Iowa State team expected to be at the bottom of the Big 12. Instead, we have a date with the Big 12 conference basement. I expected a 9-21 record when the season began, and I've seen nothing to make me change my mind. I doubt that we will win more than 1 or 2 games in conference play.
How did we get here? It breaks down to the players and the coach.
The Players
I know it sounds like I'm talking out of both sides of my mouth, but I appreciate the young men on the OU basketball team. They work hard and make a number of sacrifices to represent OU on the court. I would never boo them or disrespect their effort. That doesn't mean I can't evaluate their performance. So here goes.
Cade Davis - A fine role player on a high major program. He's just being asked to do too much on this team. He can provide some instant offense or a defensive spark, but he's better suited to a 15-20 min. per game role. Cade is an underrated athlete, and he gives his all every game. I wish he had re-tooled his shot (less arc), and I don't understand why his free throw shooting has not improved. Nevertheless, Cade has given his all to OU and he deserves a better fate.
Steven Pledger - He came in with a reputation as a shooter, and at times you can see why. But basically, he continues to be a shooter who can't make open threes consistently. I appreciate his work trying to help at point guard, but he doesn't have the skill set or mindset for a PG. Could be considered a high major player for some programs as a third or fourth guy off the bench - you let him play if he hits a few shots; otherwise you sit him down.
Andrew Fitzgerald - We have a shooter who can't shoot (Pledger) - Fitz is an inside player who can't rebound. He's not a good defensive player, and as such he's often in foul trouble. In his defense, he's undersized - but that just makes him a tweener (too short for the wing, too small for inside). I like his baseline jumper, but that just takes him out of the mix for rebounding. When he goes inside, he's a blocked shot waiting to happen, unless he has an open lane to the hoop. Some of this would be OK if he seemed to have a nose for the basketball like some other undersized inside players (Ernie Abercrombie comes to mind), but he doesn't seem to have good rebounding instincts.
Cameron Clark - I hope I'm wrong, but Cam seems to be a Tony Crocker starter kit. He seems to be dominant against sub-par competition, but disappears against big-time talent. Kinda like Crocker - he might get hot against Syracuse and then not show up against UNC. Not the kind of guy who can carry a team. It's still early - hopefully, he will continue to improve and become a difference maker.
Those are the only four players we have who can be considered high major talents. As for the others:
Carl Blair - A nice Southland Conference point guard. Some skills, but limited athletically.
Nick Thompson - Another big man who can't rebound. Too thin to have any inside impact, and not enough skills to help anywhere else.
C.J. Washington - He's a great story, and you can tell he plays hard. I like the way he goes after the ball, but he's obviously limited physically. Just not tall enough or wide enough to consistently compete at this level. Seems to have a nice 15-foot face-up shot, but has no inside, back-to-the-basket game.
Calvin Newell - Newell might have high major skills, but at his size he really needs to be a point guard, and he appears to have shooting guard skills. Nice quickness and hops, with some shooting ability - needs to learn to play under control. Perhaps he can turn into a contributor down the line.
Tyler Neal - Seems to be able to shoot, and has some hops. But he doesn't look big enough to play inside, and he doesn't seem quick enough to be a wing player. Perhaps he can work on his face-up game and add some Ryan Minor to his game.
Barry Honore - A nice low major player. Southern was a good spot for him. Just not athletic or skilled enough to contribute consistently at this level.
Kyle Hardrick -I appreciate Kyle selecting OU, but if he can't break into this rotation, he's obviously not Division I material.
Bottom line - As has been consistently noted, this team just doesn't have much talent. We thought talent was down in Capel's first year, but the key players on that team (Neal, Longar, Godbold, Carter, T. Griffin, Johnson) could step right in and start on this team. (Heck, is anyone missing Ryan Wright now?) And how did that happen???
The Coach
I think Jeff Capel can coach. He did a good job in his first year, taking over Sampson's leftovers and winning 16 games. Then he took Blake Griffin and a number of role players (plus Willie Warren in year 3) and turned them into an NCAA team - even advancing to the Elite 8.
I think the problem is that Jeff can't recruit - or he can't evaluate talent/character. He's brought in four high-major talented players - Blake, Warren, TMG, and Tiny. One came here because of his brother, and the others had ties to Coach O. Everyone else Capel has recruited either can't play (at a high level), can't stick around, or both.
Over the years OU has been "in" on a lot of good players - Barnes, Jones, Lamb, McCallum, etc. But these guys always go elsewhere. We've seen good Oklahoma players like Henry, Orton, and Clarke leave the state. Instead, OU has seen a revolving door of mediocre players - culminating in this last recruiting class, where Capel spent the spring picking up leftovers from around the country. And he's already lost two of those nine players, including one kid (T.J. Taylor) who was one of the supposed "gems" of the class.
Bottom Line
Despite all of this, I could handle it if it looked like there was any hope for the future. But I don't see any hope. Our November recruiting class consists of a transfer who couldn't make an impact at Mississippi State and a juco who doesn't evoke memories of Taj Gray.
I hope I'm wrong about my evaluations. I hope all our our players elevate their games in conference play and we are competitive. I hope we pull off some upsets and scare some of the big boys (it hurts me to say this, since it's implicit that we're not a "big boy"). I hope we bring in some high-major talent next year, and we jump back into the upper half of the conference.
But I just don't see it happening. With next year's round-robin schedule, we will be adding road games to places like Kansas, K-State, Missouri, and Iowa St. And we'll be losing two of the weaker teams in the conference. In addition, I think we'll continue to see poor attendance - to the point where it will be embarassing to see opposing fans celebrating in the LNC.
The future looks bleak - and Joe C. is going to have a difficult decision to make at the end of the year. I hope he makes the right choice.
