OU-Nicholls St. Statistical Plus/Minus Review

[DSMok1]

OU vs. Nicholls St. Statistical Plus/Minus

OU finally turned in a good half. It has been a while! A new guy stepped up to take up some slack--Fitzgerald. And Cade Davis played a brilliant game to take up WW's slack, with no major mistakes.

(Boxscore)
OU Statistical +/-

Player			SPM	Min	Contribution
Davis, Cade		17.0	31	13.2
Crocker, Tony		6.5	31	5.1
Fitzgerald, Andrew	6.5	20	3.3
Pledger, Steven		0.7	37	0.7
Gallon, Tiny		0.5	34	0.4
Allen, Orlando		-29.2	3	-2.2
Wright, Ryan		-29.3	5	-3.7
Mason-Griffin, Tommy	-6.4	39	-6.2

Nicholls St. Statistical +/-

Player			SPM	Min	Contribution
Hunter, Fred		9.0	31	7.0
Bose, Anatoly		5.2	38	5.0
Ayers, Justin		14.5	2	0.7
McCallum, Cameron	-7.5	5	-0.9
Friend, Dominic		-1.6	33	-1.3
Carter, Kellan		-5.9	22	-3.2
Iles, Chris		-8.4	25	-5.3
Foster, Maurice		-8.7	26	-5.7
Franklin Jr., Kenny	-15.0	18	-6.8

The best player on the court was Cade Davis. (Did anyone expect to say that during Cade's time at OU?) He scored an efficient 18 points, got a few rebounds, handed out 2 dimes, and grabbed 4 steals--all without a turnover and with only 1 foul.

Fred Hunter played valiantly for Nicholls St.; he was the second-best player on the court. 14 points, 5 ORB's, 3 AST, 1 BLK, 2 STL's. That was a good game. Bose also had a good game; the rest of the team was pretty weak.

OU played 6 players this game; TMG had his usual turnover-prone game. At least he got a couple of steals this game.... Crocker played like a leader; another solid game from him. Fitzgerald! 10 efficient points, 3 ORB's (as many as Tiny), 1 assist, 1 block, and 1 steal. Pretty good in 20 minutes!

Pledger wasn't quite as good as past games (he didn't grab many RB's this game), but he was still a positive impact. Tiny played okay....

This was a respectable result against a very, very bad team. Nicholls St. is #295 so far in the KenPom Ratings. OU is #152, which I think accurately reflects their play so far. OU has proven they can play offense; they are #24 in the nation in that category. Last year OU was #6 on offense and #36 on defense. OU's defense this year stinks--#306. They just gave up 1.00 points per possession to Nicholls St., one of the worst offenses in the NCAA. Not good.

Here are the totals through 6 games, with the minutes per game listed:
OU Statistical +/- Six Game Totals

Name			SPM	MPG	Contribution
Willie Warren		5.3	27.7	22.0
Cade Davis		5.5	21.8	18.0
Steven Pledger		3.9	25.8	15.1
Tony Crocker		1.1	31.2	4.9
Tiny Gallon		0.0	24.8	0.1
Kyle Hardrick		-5.6	0.3	-0.3
T.J. Franklin		-8.4	0.7	-0.8
Ray Willis		-6.0	2.2	-2.0
Beau Gerber		-58.7	0.3	-2.9
Andrew Fitzgerald	-2.4	12.0	-4.2
Ryan Wright		-3.1	15.3	-7.0
Orlando Allen		-7.3	6.7	-7.3
Tommy Mason-Griffin	-5.0	31.3	-23.6

Statistical Plus/Minus (SPM) is a method of estimating each player's impact from the box score statistics. SPM is listed in points above the average player playing per 40 minutes--so if that player was replaced by an average player for 40 minutes, SPM is the difference in the final margin. The total of all player's contributions will sum to the actual scoring margin (each team's total will equal half of the overall margin). The original method was outlined by Dan Rosenbaum at 82games.com; recently additional factors were added by Neil Paine at Basketball-Reference.com. I previously compiled the complete 2008-2009 NCAA numbers on this forum.​

 

[campbest]

Just curious, how do "fouls" effect your rating? Only reason I ask is during my tenure, a "good" game usually involved picking up around 3 fouls.

 

[DSMok1]

Just curious, how do "fouls" effect your rating? Only reason I ask is during my tenure, a "good" game usually involved picking up around 3 fouls.

Actually, they have a minimal positive effect. In other words, fouling is indicative of good defensive effort, but the impact on these calculations is fouled. If a player averages 10 fouls per 40 minutes, that would still only boost his SPM estimation by 3 points over a player with 0 fouls.

The regression done by Rosenbaum indicated that fouls are usually associated to a slight degree with good, hard play (that isn't shown in the boxscore otherwise) so they are a positive in these calculations.

 

[campbest]

Actually, they have a minimal positive effect. In other words, fouling is indicative of good defensive effort, but the impact on these calculations is fouled. If a player averages 10 fouls per 40 minutes, that would still only boost his SPM estimation by 3 points over a player with 0 fouls.

The regression done by Rosenbaum indicated that fouls are usually associated to a slight degree with good, hard play (that isn't shown in the boxscore otherwise) so they are a positive in these calculations.

Word up.

 

[DSMok1]

For comparison, here are the roster's SPM's from this year and last year:

Name			SPM	SPM 08-09
Willie Warren		5.3	4.1
Cade Davis		5.5	2.3
Steven Pledger		3.9	--
Tony Crocker		1.1	1.4
Tiny Gallon		0.0	--
Kyle Hardrick		-5.6	--
T.J. Franklin		-8.4	-24.0
Ray Willis		-6.0	-4.5
Beau Gerber		-58.7	-4.0
Andrew Fitzgerald	-2.4	--
Ryan Wright		-3.1	-6.1
Orlando Allen		-7.3	-8.2
Tommy Mason-Griffin	-5.0	--

WW is a little better, but nowhere near Blake from last year. Cade has improved a lot, and Pledger is about as good as WW was last year. TC is about the same. Willis is a little worse... small sample-size though. Ryan Wright is better but still bad. Orlando is about the same (really bad).

For comparison, here was last year's team:

Name		SPM	Contrib
Blake Griffin	11.7	340.7
Austin Johnson	5.01	140.9
Taylor Griffin	4.5	121.5
Willie Warren	4.08	115
Tony Crocker	1.39	36.2
Cade Davis	2.3	29.3
Omar Leary	-3.11	-26.6
Juan Pattillo	-4.53	-30.6
Ryan Wright	-6.13	-39.8
Ray Willis	-4.49	-11.6
Kyle Cannon	-5.5	-8.4
Orlando Allen	-8.18	-17.8
Beau Gerber	-3.96	-2.6
T.J. Franklin	-24	-16.2