Winners

[Sooner04]

I was walking my 12-year-old (nearly) beagle last night and listening to Toby on the broadcast. Up 82-78, Lattin corrals the board, I let loose a couple of fist pumps. It was hard to imagine us losing. But 1.5 blocks later I got to feel just how premature my little celebration was.

It made me wonder if players are winners or if coaches are winners or if programs are winners. We all know that Mike Shashevski schedules his back surgeries around under-performing Duke teams, but is he really the linchpin? Can it just be a guy? Is it a culture?

I ask these things because I know luck can't really be quantified. I'm sure if you researched hard enough you'll find instances where every big-time program has gone through a stretch where the little black cloud followed them no matter where they went. As a sports fan, I know that what goes around comes around. I know that 25 years after Sugar Bear came The Tuck.

But are you guys seeing any one thing I'm missing? I see a bunch of guys who make play after play and then unravel inexplicably.

Northern Iowa (slow drip)
Memphis (defensive sieve)
TCU (brick by brick)
Iowa State (Doolittle foul)
Texas (free-throws)

None of you know me personally (that's by design), but if you did you'd know I'd never utter a bad word about Lon Kruger. I've got a decent memory, and I recall pretty darned well what it was like around here before we kidnapped him from Las Vegas. But is the man snakebit?

His record at OU in overtime games? 2-11.
His record in regulation games decided by three points or less? 18-15

We do not win the close ones with any degree of regularity. Why is that? Do we tally it as the fickle bounce of the basketball, where sometimes a shot kisses the rafters before swishing through our hearts? Do we say winning is something that must be learned? I don't know, but these guys are black belts in snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Or is it just a fluke? Barry Switzer coached 190 games at Oklahoma, and he lost one game decided by three points or less.....and that was only because Billy Sims fumbled on the three-yard line heading in for the winning score. Is THAT the fluke?

I really don't know. What I'd like is some honest assessment. I'm tired of staring at the ceiling at night.

 

[oudna]

A winning record in games decided by 3 or less kind of dismisses any notion he is bad in close games.

The OT record is disappointing/interesting. I wonder if OU having relatively little depth (previous 5 years) has something to do with that.

 

[oudna]

Or is it just a fluke? Barry Switzer coached 190 games at Oklahoma, and he lost one game decided by three points or less.....and that was only because Billy Sims fumbled on the three-yard line heading in for the winning score. Is THAT the fluke?

Part fluke but also part always having the better team. How many instances in those close games was he the underdog?

I'm only old enough to remember the Miami mid-80s years. Those were losses > 3 points.

 

[perryj74]

To me those stats scream PG play. Teams that win close games on a consistent basis take care of the basketball and make free throws.

 

[oudna]

re: Switzer

I found my own answer.

Only twice in his career did he beat a higher ranked team by 3 or less.
1980 FSU
1979 NU
http://soonerstats.com/football/res...QuarterResults=All&Other=Margin3#.WIfCDYZOKEc

I guess I'm just not nearly as impressed with him as most Oklahomans are.

 

[coolm]

you miss the key point in all of this which was stated by barry - it's the jimmies and joes.

the school and its' prestige is the foundation for all of it. add in a good coach and it's like he's starting on 3rd base already. huge snowball effect. it's an avalanche for a few in ncaa basketball and football. we happen to benefit in one but not the other. so we dont get the absolute best jimmies and joes.

 

[TheMont]

I felt the same way about our winning ability during the '14-'15 season as I do now.

- We blew an 18-point lead and lost by 2 at Creighton in our season opener, when we were pretty clearly the better team
- We fought back from down 20 against Washington, only to have Woodard's game winner rattle out
- Kansas State's Marcus Foster returned from suspension to inexplicably hit a 3 from the same spot in Manhattan and Norman to beat us TWICE
- We blew a 20-point lead at Iowa State after Cousins got a technical foul for taunting the ISU bench and we unraveled
- Ryan Spangler missed a game-tying layup against ISU in the Big 12 tournament that I can still picture perfectly and will haunt my dreams forever

It kept happening. Buddy finally got the tip-in to beat Kansas in Norman, but that was really the only Sooner Magic we had. That team was so good and hard working and had all the pieces. By all accounts, that was still a great season and a Sweet 16 finish is nothing to hang our heads at, but we really let a lot slip away. I spent a large majority of that season not TRUSTING that team would find a way to win most of the time.

Now I want to say we shook the curse last year with Khadeem's game-winning tip-in vs. WVU, Buddy going ham in Baton Rouge + Cousin's game winner, and Buddy's winner vs. Texas.... but, honestly, if Khadeem would've made ONE free throw in Lawrence, I really believe KU wouldn't have 12 straight conference titles right now.

But I think that's what Lon does. He throws his players into the fire until they figure out how to win. I think his strategy is that, when these players are juniors and seniors, they'll make their share of buzzer beaters and free throws. But if THAT's the case, then why do we start playing street ball when we have a lead? Why doesn't Lon call time outs to make sure we get a bucket and/or stop when the opponent has all the momentum? We run a ton of one-on-one isolation plays in really crucial moments. Sometimes it seems like our guys (especially this year) don't get a lot of help.

Or maybe we're just paying our dues to the basketball gods for making the Final Four last year.

 

[SoonerBounce13]

re: Switzer

I found my own answer.

Only twice in his career did he beat a higher ranked team by 3 or less.
1980 FSU
1979 NU
http://soonerstats.com/football/res...QuarterResults=All&Other=Margin3#.WIfCDYZOKEc

I guess I'm just not nearly as impressed with him as most Oklahomans are.

and how many did he lose against teams ranked higher?

 

[chuckb]

https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/anecdotal

We won a close one at West Virginia less than a week ago.

 

[Sooner04]

A winning record in games decided by 3 or less kind of dismisses any notion he is bad in close games.

But his record at Oklahoma in games with a margin of three points or less at the end of regulation is 20-26. EEK! Not good.

I felt the same way about our winning ability during the '14-'15 season as I do now.

Excellent point. Funny thing is, the year before we went 5-0 in games decided by three points or less in regulation........BUT, 0-3 in OT.

We won a close one at West Virginia less than a week ago.

Yes we did! Only the second OT victory in Lon's nearly six seasons. 2-11 in the extra frame.......is that a fluke?

I'd like some nominations from the peanut gallery. I'm curious how teams with success relative to ours in the Kruger era have done in close games and OT. This would eliminate the bluest blue bloods, but lump us in with Iowa State, UCLA, Creighton, Ohio State, Xavier, San Diego State, Michigan, etc. That second tier, and I'll crunch the numbers from there.

I'm afraid I know the answer to our troubles: a little shady on D, and the Payton Pritchard c'est la vie.

 

[scrybe]

In many cases, we had less talent than the teams we lost those close games to. In other cases, the outcomes were much like the flip of a coin.

Lookit: Flip a coin 10 times. You may get heads (or tails) eight times.

Flip a coin 100 times and the count will be much closer to 50-50.

Kruger's teams will start winning those close games, and those numbers will look much better, especially if he stays a few years longer.

 

[SoonerinNC]

At this point we have two problems.

We still lack sufficient depth. We are only having 7 players with more than 10 minutes in the tough games. That leads to tired legs late in the game which leads to missed shots and missed free throws.

We are not running a good offense consistently. Don't know why, but probably inexperience. When we stop running it we go into the bad spells. Often it degenerates into one on one play. While I was thrilled with Doolittle and McGusty in the Texas game I would rather have a little more balanced offense.