I respect your opinion on this daze, you've shown in the past your are well versed in the DFW prep hoops scene so I'll trust you on your observations over the local schedule. So on your last question I ask you isn't that a sign to the coach's style and personality in this point in their careers? Frank has showed a bigger aptitude at getting the most of his physical players/question mark players like Thomas than Capel has. Look at what he did with UCONN transfer Kelly this past year, in compared to how this year played out for Capel. I just get the feeling Thomas is going to be a really good enforcer over 4 years for the Wildcats with the way Frank is going to coach him.
In my opinion, all of what you are predicting for him is based on his ability to fundamentally change his game. My statement about Gip is he's NOT shown the work ethic, to this point, to make those changes to the degree needed to make this kind of a jump, AND that his recruiting is being buoyed by the fact there is a marked drop in the number of "qualified" bigs in this class.
Again, there is a chance he makes a change when the right coach gets a hold of him; however, that doesn't change the fact he is not prepared for the game at the Big 12 level today. His skill set and his footwork is not nearly what Bookout or Fitz's were as entering freshmen. I'm using those two as examples because those are two of the names being brought up.
As it stands today, he overpowers every matchup he has success with, and I simply don't think you can "overpower" matchups on a consistent basis in the Big 12 without some knowledge of positioning and angles and how to take advantage of a defender's mistakes - when real ball is played. The guys listed above certainly had those skills in their hip pockets at the same point in their careers.
There's no way to tell what goes on in the collective mind of a coaching staff when offering a player, whether it's personality or style preference or whatever; but you can certainly glean information from trending, like that from big Gip's recruitment.
Less than 1/3 of the Big 12 offered him according to Rivals. Only one Big 10, one Big East, one Pac 10, and zero SEC schools did. That means the largest percentage of these big conferences felt he will not able to contribute to a significant-enough degree in their systems to warrant a serious offer.
There seems to be a prevailing theme with his recruitment, and that seems to back coach Capel's stance - not Martin's.
Believe me, I wish Gip nothing but the best. I'm just calling it like I see it based on my personal experiences. Perhaps he'll roll out of bed one day soon and decide to take to heart the many calls he's had over the years for him to seriously work on his game. Time will tell.