The reason it is likely going to gravitate toward less upsets is because when a guy from a mid-major has a good year, he will be entering the portal in hopes of a big payday. From a commonsense standpoint, that will reduce the number of upsets since the better-than-average players will be constantly transferring up a level. Without looking it up, I'm guessing it has been a long time since there was only 1-16 that was seeded lower than #6, and 0-8 seeded lower than #3.