2026 Bracketology

[SoonerDutch]

I know you’re kidding, but I do see people make the latter point seriously, as if the coach or team should get credit for a portion of the schedule they have no control over. Something tells me Moser would prefer to still be playing Bradley and Missouri State in conference.

I’m not really following you, I haven’t seen anyone on this board suggest what you’re implying…

Regardless, I agree with you & others that Moser over-scheduling the truly awful teams has cost OU over the years. It will hurt OU on the margins even if they dominate in-conference (unlikely).

Ideal mix to me is soft enough to get to 20 wins for the eye test, by playing 100-200 type teams as the cupcakes. Committee is getting more analytics-friendly but still think padding wins helps more than they publicly admit. Definitely helps with the media convo. Sure we disagree on that and that’s fine.

 

[WichitaSooner]

I’m not really following you, I haven’t seen anyone on this board suggest what you’re implying…

Regardless, I agree with you & others that Moser over-scheduling the truly awful teams has cost OU over the years. It will hurt OU on the margins even if they dominate in-conference (unlikely).

Ideal mix to me is soft enough to get to 20 wins for the eye test, by playing 100-200 type teams as the cupcakes. Committee is getting more analytics-friendly but still think padding wins helps more than they publicly admit. Definitely helps with the media convo. Sure we disagree on that and that’s fine.

Oh people on this board have definitely made that argument. One in particular has argued for years that our noncon schedule doesn’t matter because we play in a great conference that gives us plenty of chances for quality wins.

I think win totals certainly mattered for many years, but not for at least the past half decade, probably longer. We have seen more and more power conference teams make the field with very “bad” records because their profile is strong, while teams that fatten up on cupcakes get left out.

 

[SoonerDutch]

Oh people on this board have definitely made that argument. One in particular has argued for years that our noncon schedule doesn’t matter because we play in a great conference that gives us plenty of chances for quality wins.

I think win totals certainly mattered for many years, but not for at least the past half decade, probably longer. We have seen more and more power conference teams make the field with very “bad” records because their profile is strong, while teams that fatten up on cupcakes get left out.

Yeah, I agree to disagree. 2024 UVA & 2025 UNC are two examples but again can disagree obviously!

I do see people make the latter point seriously, as if the coach or team should get credit for a portion of the schedule they have no control over.

Some have argued that out of conference SOS shouldn’t be a factor (to be clear, I agree with you that it should be a factor - both by the committee & by perpetual bubble OU that it will likely be under Moser), but arguing that overall SOS is a metric that the committee is considering is not the same as what you’re suggesting - that people are claiming that Moser should get credit for conference strength. Are you arguing that the committee does not consider overall SOS?

 

[SoonerBounce13]

nonconf sos should not matter. Overall SOS and how you did against the different quads should matter.
It is dumb to break down into 2 different schedules.

 

[BoulderSooner]

first four out on On3 today also

2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Updated Bracketology projections as non-conference resumes solidify

.

www.on3.com

 

[SoonerDutch]

nonconf sos should not matter. Overall SOS and how you did against the different quads should matter.
It is dumb to break down into 2 different schedules.

Not sure about “dumb,” I can see why it should have more value although to lose one’s mind over it is too dramatic to me. IMO, programs should be rewarded for improving the portion of the schedule they can adjust on an annual basis. A marginal boost when determining seeding or the bubble. Should it overwhelm other scheduling metrics? No but again another data point when making decisions on close margins.

Regardless of what you, I, or others posters think, it seemingly matters to the committee. Moser & Co should try to game scheduling (like LK did, they were masterful and it saved OU’s ass when it came to seeding/bubble talk). Far bigger concerns for sure but seems like something very easy to game and not sure of the benefits of playing 300+ teams relative to 150-200 teams when OU should beat them anyways.

But pretty clear why some people beat this point to death lol.

 

[BoulderSooner]

last team in on the ESPN update

Men's Bracketology: Vanderbilt is exceeding expectations as a projected 2-seed

The unbeaten Commodores weren't expected to be this good this season, but we could very well see history made in March.

www.espn.com

 

[CMSOONER]

last team in on the ESPN update

Men's Bracketology: Vanderbilt is exceeding expectations as a projected 2-seed

The unbeaten Commodores weren't expected to be this good this season, but we could very well see history made in March.

www.espn.com

Oh what a difference a blowout win makes.

 

[Skeeter1]

Moser teaching the boys some D. Just in time for the sec schedule. Boomer

 

[BoulderSooner]

still last team in on espn

Men's Bracketology: Vanderbilt is exceeding expectations as a projected 2-seed

The unbeaten Commodores weren't expected to be this good this season, but we could very well see history made in March.

www.espn.com

 

[mict085]

nonconf sos should not matter. Overall SOS and how you did against the different quads should matter.
It is dumb to break down into 2 different schedules.

Overall SOS does matter. We only break it down this way because we don’t have control over the conference schedule. We do have control over how we schedule the noncon, so we should do it right and build a better schedule that helps us instead of hurts us. The template is already proven and we had been doing it for years before moser.

Are you really this dense? We talk about it like 2 different schedules because we can control one and not the other.

 

[SoonerBounce13]

Overall SOS does matter. We only break it down this way because we don’t have control over the conference schedule. We do have control over how we schedule the noncon, so we should do it right and build a better schedule that helps us instead of hurts us. The template is already proven and we had been doing it for years before moser.

Are you really this dense? We talk about it like 2 different schedules because we can control one and not the other.

Control doesn't matter. It is still all one schedule.
Your non conf schedule is included in your overall SOS. THere is literally no reason to break it into 2 sections. zero.
Just because you control some of the games doesn't mean anything.

So yes, I am this dense.

Football doesn't have a non conf strength of schedule that I have ever seen.
You look at the overall SOS and teh individual game results and SOR

 

[mict085]

So yes, I am this dense.

Yes you are. It’s like talking to a child. You still don’t understand.

 

[SoonerBounce13]

Yes you are. It’s like talking to a child. You still don’t understand.

I understand. I just find it dumb and pointless

Overall SOS literally takes everything into account.
If you schedule bad in teh nonconf it will be reflected in your overall.
There isn't a reason to separate it.

 

[WichitaSooner]

Man there is a non-zero chance that Marquette will end up being a Q-4 win. They are so, so bad. (And that’s our third best win of the noncon lol.)