Bayesian Power Ratings

[DSMok1]

Hi guys!

I haven't posted on here much this year. (Perhaps the quality of the team has something to do with my lack of enthusiasm?) Anyway, I was doing some research on weighted power ratings, optimized to be predictive by weighting older games less than more recent games. I originally did this for the NBA, and Nathan Walker over at the Basketball Distribution thought I should do this for the NCAA as well. So I did. The full post is over on my stats blog, but here is the gist of it:

OU is #126, with a +3.6 efficiency differential.

That puts them 11th in the Big XII.

 

[steverocks35]

Whoa, Whoa, Whoa! So you're saying they're not very good?

 

[coolm]

Whoa, Whoa, Whoa! So you're saying they're not very good?

Who's not very good?

 

[DSMok1]

Whoa, Whoa, Whoa! So you're saying they're not very good?

Yeah, I couldn't believe it either!

 

[Sid]

OU is #126, with a +3.6 efficiency differential.

That puts them 11th in the Big XII.

NC

:jcapel:Intensethompson:

 

[Dem Coltz]

Wow you have a blog? Dude that's awesome! And it says we aren't good? Wow, you must be really good at statistics, and certainly don't waste a second of your time. My eyes have deceived me all year, I couldn't tell without your numbers! You should check out the blog about the Nigerian prince who died and left all his inheritance to you. Just credit him a small one-time fee of $1,000 and you can have the entire bank account which you so richly deserve. Blogs are keeping families alive.

 

[OrlandoSooner]

Don't shoot the messenger guys.

Thanks for posting the stats and your blog. I'm a numbers guy, so I like to see the various rankings. Thanks for sharing.

 

[DSMok1]

Wow you have a blog? Dude that's awesome! And it says we aren't good? Wow, you must be really good at statistics, and certainly don't waste a second of your time. My eyes have deceived me all year, I couldn't tell without your numbers! You should check out the blog about the Nigerian prince who died and left all his inheritance to you. Just credit him a small one-time fee of $1,000 and you can have the entire bank account which you so richly deserve. Blogs are keeping families alive.

I ran out of time to make more of a discussion about OU... sorry.

I think you joined later, but I used to do TONS of OU-specific statistical analysis for this board only. I thought the folks here might be interested in where some of my work has gone. Just search for threads I've started here to see the research I've done here.

 

[OUHoops]

I ran out of time to make more of a discussion about OU... sorry.

I think you joined later, but I used to do TONS of OU-specific statistical analysis for this board only. I thought the folks here might be interested in where some of my work has gone. Just search for threads I've started here to see the research I've done here.

Thanks for the posts, Mok.

 

[jerry]

Hi guys!

I haven't posted on here much this year. (Perhaps the quality of the team has something to do with my lack of enthusiasm?) Anyway, I was doing some research on weighted power ratings, optimized to be predictive by weighting older games less than more recent games. I originally did this for the NBA, and Nathan Walker over at the Basketball Distribution thought I should do this for the NCAA as well. So I did. The full post is over on my stats blog, but here is the gist of it:

OU is #126, with a +3.6 efficiency differential.

That puts them 11th in the Big XII.

Probably about right.

 

[DSMok1]

Finally had a chance to put together the graph I wanted to (I'm working on my taxes :facepalm):

Let's see--losing to Virginia and Chaminade like they did was really bad. OU had a nice stretch of 6 games in a row above NCAA average (which is admittedly a really low threshold!)

 

[StatGeek]

Wow you have a blog? Dude that's awesome! And it says we aren't good? Wow, you must be really good at statistics, and certainly don't waste a second of your time. My eyes have deceived me all year, I couldn't tell without your numbers! You should check out the blog about the Nigerian prince who died and left all his inheritance to you. Just credit him a small one-time fee of $1,000 and you can have the entire bank account which you so richly deserve. Blogs are keeping families alive.

Classy

 

[SoonerTraveler]

Hi guys!

I haven't posted on here much this year. (Perhaps the quality of the team has something to do with my lack of enthusiasm?) Anyway, I was doing some research on weighted power ratings, optimized to be predictive by weighting older games less than more recent games. I originally did this for the NBA, and Nathan Walker over at the Basketball Distribution thought I should do this for the NCAA as well. So I did. The full post is over on my stats blog, but here is the gist of it:

OU is #126, with a +3.6 efficiency differential.

That puts them 11th in the Big XII.

Following your link, I see the updated chart now has OU at #138 and Texas Tech at #137. Hopefully, the Sooners can pull out a victory in Lubbock.

If the OU team has "drastic improvement" next season, maybe OU can get up to #90 or so.

Thanks for the post and the links.

:OUbball-logo: