Sooners' Tournament Resume

[stormspencer]

Winning at Iowa State is the least likely our of all our potential wins...even more than Houston at home IMO. Flip that game and I think that is more accurate.

ISU is so so so good at home.

Yep....I would be more surprised if we won at Hilton even over beating Houston at home. Houston has been at least a little vulnerable on the road. KU has been even more vulnerable on the road. Things are subject to change, but I would list the following wins from most likely to least likely:
OSU - very likely
@OSU - likely, but it is a rivalry game
Cincy - likely, but may have to sweat it out
KU - toss up
@Texas - toss up/unlikely (even though Texas has stunk at home)
Houston - unlikely
@Baylor - unlikely
@ISU - very unlikely

 

[skyvue]

I get the pessimism about winning in Ames, but we won there last year and in 2021 (in 2022, we beat them in KC). Prior to that, we last beat them in Ames in 2011. Stranger things have happened, though; you never know.

 

[steverocks35]

I would downgrade KU to unlikely and upgrade @ISU to unlikely. We don't matchup well with KU.

 

[red recluse]

green bay stays on top of the horizon with a game winning 3 against youngstown state. really good back and forth game, and gb drew up a beautiful 3 point play to win. love watching the mid-majors.

and providence gets hosed at butler on a no call at the rim in the last seconds.

 

[StoopsBros]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1757071678796902564

 

[BoulderSooner]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1757071678796902564

what is crazy is next years big 12 has 11 currently

and next years SEC 10 ..

 

[skyvue]

Yeah, I don't think the SEC going to be quite the break from tough competition many are counting on it being.

 

[TEvans4Three]

Thought this would be a good place to show a comparison between us and our potential basement team example to get in 2023 West Virginia.

	2023 WVU	2024 OU
101+	7-0	10-0
51-100	5-2	2-0
26-50	5-1	3-2
Top 25	2-11	1-3
Record thru 21	13-8	16-5
Worst Loss	63 Taco Tech (H)	35 Texas (H)
Best Win	21 KSU (H)	13 ISU (H)
21 game rec	12-8	15-5
SOS	5	76
Non-Con	92	314
KP	19	21
NET	25	27
Q1	6-14	2-4
Q2	6-1	4-1
Q3	1-0	2-0
Q4	6-0	8-0
Tourney	9 seed	?

Quad games left:

Date	NET	KP Rank	Team	KP Pred	H/A	Q1 (current)
Sat Feb 3	71​	74​	UCF	W, 69-66	Away	Q1
Tue Feb 6	6​	9​	BYU	L, 74-73	Home	Q1
Sat Feb 10	139​	126​	Oklahoma St.	W, 76-62	Home	Q3
Tue Feb 13	17​	16​	Baylor	L, 76-71	Away	Q1
Sat Feb 17	13​	15​	Kansas	W, 74-72	Home	Q1
Sat Feb 24	139​	126​	Oklahoma St.	W, 73-66	Away	Q3
Wed Feb 28	10​	13​	Iowa St.	L, 73-68	Away	Q1
Sat Mar 2	1​	1​	Houston	L, 68-61	Home	Q1
Tue Mar 5	32​	34​	Cincinnati	W, 72-67	Home	Q2
Sat Mar 9	40​	35​	Texas	L, 73-71	Away	Q1

This also does not include Big12 Tournament play

So comparable resumes, but OU has a worse Non-con schedule than WVU last year. WVU went 7-11 in conference and still got the 9 seed. (20) Q1 games will do that. OU projected to have (13) Q1 games. OSU is borderline Q2 games and Cincy is a borderline Q1 game.

We cannot drop a game to OSU in my opinion. UCF as well. Need those 3 wins. If you win those, there is not a bad loss on OU's schedule...at all. Lowest would be to #35/40 Texas, which is not a bad loss in the grand scheme. They can go 7-11 and MAYBE make the tournament on the bubble, MAYBE (unlikely knowing our luck). 8-10 is in and 9-9 is a decent seed. 4 or 5 wins and we are in...need that to happen with no bad loss to OSU.

Or the committee could hate us again, I don't know.

SOS will be in the Top 10-Top15 when season is over, so moot at the end of season there.


View attachment 974
barttorvik resume comparison

Update:

	2023 WVU	2024 OU
101+	7-0	12-0
51-100	5-2	4-0
26-50	5-1	1-2
Top 25	2-11	1-4
Record thru 24	15-9	18-6
Worst Loss	63 Taco Tech (H)	65 UCF (A)
Best Win	21 KSU (H)	9 ISU (H)
SOS	5	77
Non-Con	92	319
KP	19	24
NET	25	30
Q1	6-14	3-4
Q2	6-1	3-2
Q3	1-0	4-0
Q4	6-0	8-0
Tourney	9 seed	?

Quad Games Left:

Date	NET	KP Rank	Team	KP Pred	H/A	Q1 (current)
Tue Feb 13	13​	14​	Baylor	L, 76-71	Away	Q1
Sat Feb 17	12​	18​	Kansas	W, 74-72	Home	Q1
Sat Feb 24	135​	121​	Oklahoma St.	W, 73-66	Away	Q2
Wed Feb 28	9​	9​	Iowa St.	L, 73-68	Away	Q1
Sat Mar 2	1​	1​	Houston	L, 68-61	Home	Q1
Tue Mar 5	34​	33​	Cincinnati	W, 72-67	Home	Q2
Sat Mar 9	33​	26​	Texas	L, 73-71	Away	Q1

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