Sooners' Tournament Resume

[TEvans4Three]

Thought this would be a good place to show a comparison between us and our potential basement team example to get in 2023 West Virginia.

	2023 WVU	2024 OU
101+	7-0	10-0
51-100	5-2	2-0
26-50	5-1	3-2
Top 25	2-11	1-3
Record thru 21	13-8	16-5
Worst Loss	63 Taco Tech (H)	35 Texas (H)
Best Win	21 KSU (H)	13 ISU (H)
21 game rec	12-8	15-5
SOS	5	76
Non-Con	92	314
KP	19	21
NET	25	27
Q1	6-14	2-4
Q2	6-1	4-1
Q3	1-0	2-0
Q4	6-0	8-0
Tourney	9 seed	?

Quad games left:

Date	NET	KP Rank	Team	KP Pred	H/A	Q1 (current)
Sat Feb 3	71​	74​	UCF	W, 69-66	Away	Q1
Tue Feb 6	6​	9​	BYU	L, 74-73	Home	Q1
Sat Feb 10	139​	126​	Oklahoma St.	W, 76-62	Home	Q3
Tue Feb 13	17​	16​	Baylor	L, 76-71	Away	Q1
Sat Feb 17	13​	15​	Kansas	W, 74-72	Home	Q1
Sat Feb 24	139​	126​	Oklahoma St.	W, 73-66	Away	Q3
Wed Feb 28	10​	13​	Iowa St.	L, 73-68	Away	Q1
Sat Mar 2	1​	1​	Houston	L, 68-61	Home	Q1
Tue Mar 5	32​	34​	Cincinnati	W, 72-67	Home	Q2
Sat Mar 9	40​	35​	Texas	L, 73-71	Away	Q1

This also does not include Big12 Tournament play

So comparable resumes, but OU has a worse Non-con schedule than WVU last year. WVU went 7-11 in conference and still got the 9 seed. (20) Q1 games will do that. OU projected to have (13) Q1 games. OSU is borderline Q2 games and Cincy is a borderline Q1 game.

We cannot drop a game to OSU in my opinion. UCF as well. Need those 3 wins. If you win those, there is not a bad loss on OU's schedule...at all. Lowest would be to #35/40 Texas, which is not a bad loss in the grand scheme. They can go 7-11 and MAYBE make the tournament on the bubble, MAYBE (unlikely knowing our luck). 8-10 is in and 9-9 is a decent seed. 4 or 5 wins and we are in...need that to happen with no bad loss to OSU.

Or the committee could hate us again, I don't know.

SOS will be in the Top 10-Top15 when season is over, so moot at the end of season there.



barttorvik resume comparison

 

[Boom Soon]

Awesome! Thank you for putting this together!

8-10 gets them into the tournament imo. I can’t claim to know which games will be “must wins” but I would think they gotta beat UCF on Saturday, OSU twice and either BYU or Cincinnati at home to lock themselves in.

 

[opsooner]

Great information.

Might not be critical depending on what other wins we have, but I sure want to beat either KU or Houston in LNC, and preferably both.

It will make me feel a lot better about our chances of winning a game or two in the tournament if we can beat them at home. And winning one or both of those would be helpful for tourney invitation and seed anyway unless we lose too many more games we shouldn’t lose. And why not beat KU at our place, they haven’t exactly shown themselves to be road warriors this year. But we will have to play a lot better than we did against texas and tech.

 

[SoonerDutch]

Really great breakdown. I know the committee has really embraced analytics but still feel like beating a big name opponent (KU more name, Houston because of underlying analytics) would help out OU’s cause psychologically with committee disproportionally to actual resume bump (which would still be significant, esp with UH) as opposed to just getting to 20 wins by beating BYU/OSU 2x/Cinci for example.

Like a signature win/positive narrative. I guess right now that’s ISU?

 

[WichitaSooner]

Really great breakdown. I know the committee has really embraced analytics but still feel like beating a big name opponent (KU more name, Houston because of underlying analytics) would help out OU’s cause psychologically with committee disproportionally to actual resume bump (which would still be significant, esp with UH) as opposed to just getting to 20 wins by beating BYU/OSU 2x/Cinci for example.

Like a signature win/positive narrative. I guess right now that’s ISU?

They do distinguish wins within each quad, especially within quad 1. So a top 5 road win definitely helps more than beating number 30 at home. I think some writers refer to the best wins as "quad 1A" wins.

 

[stormspencer]

Every year, they say the bubble looks weaker than recent memory (I've said it before as well). I was looking over Lunardi's X/Twitter this week, and there are some bubble teams that don't even have a Q-1 win yet.....and just a few opportunities remaining. The Big 12 is a double edged sword though....plenty of quality win opportunities, but your record can get sideways in a hurry if you don't cash in on some of those occasions. As Wichita said, I believe this team needs a "season-defining win" or what we would call a Q-1A win (Houston, KU).....not so much as to make the tournament, but rather for the confidence of this group to know they can actually win a game or two in the tournament.

 

[stormspencer]

Still a #6 seed in Lunardi's bracket as of yesterday....the number 24 team in his seed list (the last #6 seed).

 

[Boom Soon]

Beating BYU definitely helps with making the tournament! Gotta follow it up with a win against OSU!

 

[dksooner]

7 quad one and two wins!! Up to 27 in net!

 

[SoonerBounce13]

7 quad one and two wins!! Up to 27 in net!

3 more wins should lock us up. 2 wins and we could possibly get in but sweating it

 

[dksooner]

3 more wins should lock us up. 2 wins and we could possibly get in but sweating it

Let's sweep the pokes and cincy, find a way to win one at home against ku or houston and steal one at isu, Baylor, or texas!

 

[Boom Soon]

Let's sweep the pokes and cincy, find a way to win one at home against ku or houston and steal one at isu, Baylor, or texas!

OSU- Win
@Baylor- Lose
KU- 50/50
@OSU- Win
@Iowa State- Win
Houston- Lose
Cincy- Win
@Texas- Win

 

[SoonerBounce13]

OSU- Win
@Baylor- Lose
KU- Lose
@OSU- Win
@Iowa State- Lose
Houston- Lose
Cincy- Win
@Texas- Lose

My guess...Possibly @texas a win but not likely

That would put us at 8-10 conference and 20-11 overall

 

[TEvans4Three]

OSU- Win
@Baylor- Lose
KU- 50/50
@OSU- Win
@Iowa State- Win
Houston- Lose
Cincy- Win
@Texas- Win

Winning at Iowa State is the least likely our of all our potential wins...even more than Houston at home IMO. Flip that game and I think that is more accurate.

ISU is so so so good at home.

 

[OUSKINS]

I think 8-10 would totally lock us in because it means we aren’t JUST beating OSU and losing to everyone else. 8-10 in conf with 20 wins entering B12 Tourney and I think it’s a 100% lock and no sweating Selection Sunday. 7-11 I’d say is probably in, but could be problematic especially if both wins are vs OSU and we lose every other game we play. Might be in a situation there where we need a win in KC to not sweat it out.

3 wins out of 8 games is the key here. If you sweep OSU then I’d certainly like to think we can go 1-5 in the rest.

 

[Boom Soon]

My guess...Possibly @texas a win but not likely

That would put us at 8-10 conference and 20-11 overall

That’s a 6 seed I think.

 

[Boom Soon]

Winning at Iowa State is the least likely our of all our potential wins...even more than Houston at home IMO. Flip that game and I think that is more accurate.

ISU is so so so good at home.

Yeah true. Maybe they can beat Baylor at Waco.

 

[Boom Soon]

I think 8-10 would totally lock us in because it means we aren’t JUST beating OSU and losing to everyone else. 8-10 in conf with 20 wins entering B12 Tourney and I think it’s a 100% lock and no sweating Selection Sunday. 7-11 I’d say is probably in, but could be problematic especially if both wins are vs OSU and we lose every other game we play. Might be in a situation there where we need a win in KC to not sweat it out.

3 wins out of 8 games is the key here. If you sweep OSU then I’d certainly like to think we can go 1-5 in the rest.

Oh I agree. If this team deserves the tourney they’ll go atleast 3-8 the rest of the way.

 

[WichitaSooner]

I think 8-10 would totally lock us in because it means we aren’t JUST beating OSU and losing to everyone else. 8-10 in conf with 20 wins entering B12 Tourney and I think it’s a 100% lock and no sweating Selection Sunday. 7-11 I’d say is probably in, but could be problematic especially if both wins are vs OSU and we lose every other game we play. Might be in a situation there where we need a win in KC to not sweat it out.

3 wins out of 8 games is the key here. If you sweep OSU then I’d certainly like to think we can go 1-5 in the rest.

I agree. 8 gets us in. I don’t think 7 does. If we go 2-6 the rest of the way with two wins over OSU, our NET will drop into the 40s, maybe well into the 40s. That wouldn’t get it done.

I don’t think we have much chance at ISU or Baylor. Texas has been bad at home but you feel like at some point they will turn that around. Houston will be incredibly tough to beat. And I always expect the worst against KU. Cincy is the one we need to win, and then hope maybe you pick off KU or UT and finish 9-9 and set yourself up for a top 6 or 7 seed.

 

[Boom Soon]

I agree. 8 gets us in. I don’t think 7 does. If we go 2-6 the rest of the way with two wins over OSU, our NET will drop into the 40s, maybe well into the 40s. That wouldn’t get it done.

I don’t think we have much chance at ISU or Baylor. Texas has been bad at home but you feel like at some point they will turn that around. Houston will be incredibly tough to beat. And I always expect the worst against KU. Cincy is the one we need to win, and then hope maybe you pick off KU or UT and finish 9-9 and set yourself up for a top 6 or 7 seed.

9-9 would be phenomenal