Big 12 Tournament Projector

[Dave4OU]

What you got


http://bball.notnothing.net/big12.php?sport=mbb

1. Kansas (13 - 5)
2. Oklahoma (12 - 6)
3. Texas (11 - 7) Defeated Iowa State based on record against #1 teams.
4. Iowa State (11 - 7) Lost to Texas based on record against #1 teams.
5. Kansas State (10 - 8) Defeated West Virginia based on record against #3 teams.
6. West Virginia (10 - 8) Lost to Kansas State based on record against #3 teams.
7. Texas Tech (8 - 10) Defeated Oklahoma State based on record against #2 teams.
8. Oklahoma State (8 - 10) Lost to Texas Tech based on record against #2 teams.
9. Baylor (7 - 11)
10. TCU (0 - 18)

 

[WTSooner]

I don't see us catching UT. Not saying it can't happen, just seems unlikely. They are playing better ball than anybody in the Big 12 other than KU. Also don't see KU losing 3 of their final 6 games either.

 

[sdcloud9]

I agree, a three seed is as good as OU can hope for at this point.

 

[dksooner]

Win remaining games except at Ku and we finish ahead of ut if they lose to Ku at the phog, not a lost hope for 2nd.

 

[WTSooner]

Win remaining games except at Ku and we finish ahead of ut if they lose to Ku at the phog, not a lost hope for 2nd.

Not true. They are two losses ahead of us right now. If we lose to KU, they'd be three up. Then you are saying they lose to KU and us. They'd still be one loss better at that point.

 

[dksooner]

Not true. They are two losses ahead of us right now. If we lose to KU, they'd be three up. Then you are saying they lose to KU and us. They'd still be one loss better at that point.

My bad, I also calculated them losing @ isu and didn't include that.

 

[WTSooner]

My bad, I also calculated them losing @ isu and didn't include that.

Well, like I said, it isn't impossible, just unlikely IMO. UT is playing good ball, and OU really isn't. Your outcome has that flipping, and OU plays good ball from hear out, while UT struggles some. It could happen, I just think we'll come up a game or two short.

 

[dksooner]

Well, like I said, it isn't impossible, just unlikely IMO. UT is playing good ball, and OU really isn't. Your outcome has that flipping, and OU plays good ball from hear out, while UT struggles some. It could happen, I just think we'll come up a game or two short.

I agree that ou is not playing well right now and ut is playing great at home but a week ago they did get dominated at kstate. I wasn't really going after you, cloud said there's no hope for 2nd so I was pointing out that it is possible.

 

[opsooner]

Texas is one week away from getting severely spanked in Manhattan. They still have to go to ISU, OU, Tech, KU. They could lose all 4.

I see ISU probably only losing 1 more. OU will likely lose at KU and has very tough home games against KSU and Texas, and at TCU is not an automatic win as we all know.

On paper right now I see ISU in second more than either Texas or OU but there will be some close games that decide it.

KSU still has to got to OU, OSU, Tech. If they can finally win some close road games they also have a chance.

WVU still has to go to OU, ISU, and has KU at home. I don't see a great chance for them.

I'll predict seeds as:

1. KU
2. ISU
3. UT
4. OU
5. KSU
6. WVU
7. OSU
8. Tech
9. BU
10. TCU

 

[garyeb2]

Texas is one week away from getting severely spanked in Manhattan. They still have to go to ISU, OU, Tech, KU. They could lose all 4.

I see ISU probably only losing 1 more. OU will likely lose at KU and has very tough home games against KSU and Texas, and at TCU is not an automatic win as we all know.

On paper right now I see ISU in second more than either Texas or OU but there will be some close games that decide it.

KSU still has to got to OU, OSU, Tech. If they can finally win some close road games they also have a chance.

WVU still has to go to OU, ISU, and has KU at home. I don't see a great chance for them.

I'll predict seeds as:

1. KU
2. ISU
3. UT
4. OU
5. KSU
6. WVU
7. OSU
8. Tech
9. BU
10. TCU

I would go with this projection. 3,4, and 5 could tied for 3rd or Texas could be 3rd alone and OU/KS tie for 4th.

 

[stormspencer]

What you got


http://bball.notnothing.net/big12.php?sport=mbb

1. Kansas (13 - 5)
2. Oklahoma (12 - 6)
3. Texas (11 - 7) Defeated Iowa State based on record against #1 teams.
4. Iowa State (11 - 7) Lost to Texas based on record against #1 teams.
5. Kansas State (10 - 8) Defeated West Virginia based on record against #3 teams.
6. West Virginia (10 - 8) Lost to Kansas State based on record against #3 teams.
7. Texas Tech (8 - 10) Defeated Oklahoma State based on record against #2 teams.
8. Oklahoma State (8 - 10) Lost to Texas Tech based on record against #2 teams.
9. Baylor (7 - 11)
10. TCU (0 - 18)

I like your enthusiasm, but what you've listed is a pipe dream. Texas, ISU, and K-State won't be losing 7 games in conference.

 

[soonerhoops2012]

Big 12 Standings

1. Kansas (15 - 3)
2. Oklahoma (12 - 6) Defeated Iowa State based on record against #4 teams.
3. Iowa State (12 - 6) Lost to Oklahoma based on record against #4 teams.
4. Texas (11 - 7)
5. Kansas State (10 - 8) Defeated West Virginia based on record against #4 teams.
6. West Virginia (10 - 8) Lost to Kansas State based on record against #4 teams.
7. Texas Tech (7 - 11) Defeated Oklahoma State based on record against #2 teams.
8. Oklahoma State (7 - 11) Lost to Texas Tech based on record against #2 teams.
9. Baylor (6 - 12)
10. TCU (0 - 18)

 

[Chaser728]

I like your enthusiasm, but what you've listed is a pipe dream. Texas, ISU, and K-State won't be losing 7 games in conference.

KSU still has @OU, @TTU & @OSU (they could very well lose all of those games - they have 1 road win in conference play.)- Predict 10-8

ISU still has @KSU, @BU, OSU (think they only lose @KSU, but they could very well lose all three- they do not necessarily play great on the road either, and the Marcus Smart factor)- Predict 12-6

UT still has @ISU, @KU, @OU & @TTU (They could very well lose all of these games)- Predict 11-7

OU still has KSU, @KU, UT, @TCU (we will only lose @KU)- Predict 12-6

This is by no means a "pipe dream", but then again, I felt a lot better about these predictions before we lost to TTU. In all honesty, I just think road games are tough to win, and OU and ISU have the easiest schedules in that regard. I also believe that OSU will make a run after Smart gets back, and will be a tough out the rest of the season. UT, ISU, KSU all have them on their schedules... I know they have looked awful, but I still believe that Smart is a good player and will play well down the stretch. But of course, we still have to play the games.

 

[stormspencer]

KSU still has @OU, @TTU & @OSU (they could very well lose all of those games - they have 1 road win in conference play.)- Predict 10-8

ISU still has @KSU, @BU, OSU (think they only lose @KSU, but they could very well lose all three- they do not necessarily play great on the road either, and the Marcus Smart factor)- Predict 12-6

UT still has @ISU, @KU, @OU & @TTU (They could very well lose all of these games)- Predict 11-7

OU still has KSU, @KU, UT, @TCU (we will only lose @KU)- Predict 12-6

This is by no means a "pipe dream", but then again, I felt a lot better about these predictions before we lost to TTU. In all honesty, I just think road games are tough to win, and OU and ISU have the easiest schedules in that regard. I also believe that OSU will make a run after Smart gets back, and will be a tough out the rest of the season. UT, ISU, KSU all have them on their schedules... I know they have looked awful, but I still believe that Smart is a good player and will play well down the stretch. But of course, we still have to play the games.

Don't get me wrong...I hope you're right. I would love to be the 2 seed in KC. But, IMO, I think Texas will probably end up 2nd. I think they are playing too well on defense to lose all of their remaining road games. I think they will lose at KU for sure. But I do see them winning at least one of the remaining three road games...and possibly two of them.

Iowa State has a pretty favorable schedule from here on out. I don't see them dropping more than 1 game. I think we will drop one to KU and probably another one and end up at 11-7....probably the 4/5 seed. If we can get our rhythm back, we may be able to win our remaining games less KU. 12-6 probably gets us the 3 seed and no worse than the 4 seed.

 

[Chaser728]

Don't get me wrong...I hope you're right. I would love to be the 2 seed in KC. But, IMO, I think Texas will probably end up 2nd. I think they are playing too well on defense to lose all of their remaining road games. I think they will lose at KU for sure. But I do see them winning at least one of the remaining three road games...and possibly two of them.

Iowa State has a pretty favorable schedule from here on out. I don't see them dropping more than 1 game. I think we will drop one to KU and probably another one and end up at 11-7....probably the 4/5 seed. If we can get our rhythm back, we may be able to win our remaining games less KU. 12-6 probably gets us the 3 seed and no worse than the 4 seed.

I def agree that 12-6 will probably get us a 3 seed, but not sure a 4 is a possibility. I'm still not convinced by Texas or KSU. I think ISU is probably the number 2 seed strictly based on their favorable schedule and think 3 seed is between us and Texas.

 

[Kewllane]

I really think it'll end up like this:

1. KU (16-2)
2. OU (12-6) OU's record against Texas vs. ISU's will get them the #2
3. ISU (12-6)
4. Texas (11-7)
5. KSU (10-8)
6. WVU (9-9)
7. OSU (7-11)
8. TT (6-12) TT's record vs. OU gets them the #8
9. BU (6-12)
10. TCU (0-18)

If anyone beats Kansas, then that throws everything completely different. But if KU wins all the rest of their games, I think it falls into place like this.

I do think the 3 seed helps us as far has advancing through the tournament though. Because I think OSU will get the 7 seed, which means they take on the 2 seed. Don't like our chances against OSU. Too tough to beat a team three times in one season (Re: 2008-2009). That means our path is WVU, then winner of UT/OSU, and then most likely Kansas unless ISU does something we don't expect. So I think the 3 seed would be best for us. But if TT hangs on to the 7 seed, then the 2 seed is where we want to be IMO.

But again, I believe it'll shake out like this. I could be really wrong though. Always fun to speculate!

 

[stormspencer]

Well...I ran the simulation and came up with this:
1. KU 14-4
2. OU, UT, ISU, KSU 12-6 (4 way tie)
6. WV 10-8
7. OSU 7-11
8. Baylor, Tech 5-13
10. TCU 0-18

OU would get the 2 seed, KSU - 3 seed, ISU - 4, UT -5 all based on some crazy tiebreaker scenario. I think the wildcard here is osu. If they can get some of their moxie back, they could really help OU by knocking off KSU and ISU. They have the talent, but we will have to see what happens after the flopper gets back.

 

[DenverSooner]

I don't see us catching UT. Not saying it can't happen, just seems unlikely. They are playing better ball than anybody in the Big 12 other than KU. Also don't see KU losing 3 of their final 6 games either.

Texas has a tough schedule. I get it s late in the year but I think Texas will lee three games and it will be interesting to see how that team responds to adversity

 

[WTSooner]

Texas has a tough schedule. I get it s late in the year but I think Texas will lee three games and it will be interesting to see how that team responds to adversity

Adversity like losing their first two Big 12 games to OU and OSU, then rattling off 8 straight wins, and winning 10 of 11?

I think they'll be fine.

UT is clearly the 2nd best team in the Big 12. Maybe they will fall apart down the stretch. Maybe the back loaded schedule will catch up to them. But I think they hold on to 2nd place.