NCAA tourney hopes

[AltSooner33]

Obviously, with our non conference, the tournament is pretty far fetched. But just for the fun of it, what do you guys think it would take the rest of the season to be a bubble team with a shot? 12 conference wins, beat Florida, and win a game or 2 in the big 12 tourney?

 

[oudna]

Hield, Spangler & Cousins

 

[JBaker]

Obviously, with our non conference, the tournament is pretty far fetched. But just for the fun of it, what do you guys think it would take the rest of the season to be a bubble team with a shot? 12 conference wins, beat Florida, and win a game or 2 in the big 12 tourney?

Huh? 12 conference wins and a win over Florida? That's not a bubble team, that's a 5 seed.

 

[BoulderSooner]

Huh? 12 conference wins and a win over Florida? That's not a bubble team, that's a 5 seed.

this is correct ... not saying we win 13 more .. but in no way whould that put us on the bubble ..

 

[AltSooner33]

Huh? 12 conference wins and a win over Florida? That's not a bubble team, that's a 5 seed.

Don't know if that makes us a 5 seed with our non conference. We have no good wins, Florida would be the best. Youre right though, probably wouldn't be on the bubble. But I can't see 9-9 being good enough to get in. So what's your guess? 10 or 11 conferenence wins and we are in?

 

[ByronHoustonsSweatyPalms]

Gotta think anyone that finishes .500 or better in the Big 12 is under serious consideration to make the dance this year


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[okhoops918]

Huh? 12 conference wins and a win over Florida? That's not a bubble team, that's a 5 seed.

We are 6-5.

12-6 plus a win vs UF would get us to 19-11. That is a bubble record and our recent performance in conference would put us in a great position to be on the good side of the bubble. Win 1 or 2 in tourny and we would def be in as a 9/10 seed.

21-12 is NOT a 5 seed record. A 5 seed at this point would require winning 14 games in conference.

 

[AdaSooner]

I'm not the least bit worried about seeding at this point. This team's preseason record has left them with a monumental task to make the dance.

An impossible task? Not at all. The talent is there to turn the season around if these kids can learn how to perform at a high level for an entire game. One needs to look no further than the way they played in the first half of every loss except one for proof of that. We may get our answer when the season tips off with Baylor.

 

[Sooner04]

We are 6-5.

12-6 plus a win vs UF would get us to 19-11. That is a bubble record and our recent performance in conference would put us in a great position to be on the good side of the bubble. Win 1 or 2 in tourny and we would def be in as a 9/10 seed.

21-12 is NOT a 5 seed record. A 5 seed at this point would require winning 14 games in conference.

Our 2008 team was rewarded with a 6-seed after going 22-11 in a much weaker Big 12 Conference.

I don't think this team is going to go 12-6, but I do think it will require an 11-7 conference record to warrant serious consideration. I thought going 9-2 in the regular season would require 9-9 in conference to get in. We're obviously well off that pace.

 

[stormspencer]

We are 6-5.

12-6 plus a win vs UF would get us to 19-11. That is a bubble record and our recent performance in conference would put us in a great position to be on the good side of the bubble. Win 1 or 2 in tourny and we would def be in as a 9/10 seed.

21-12 is NOT a 5 seed record. A 5 seed at this point would require winning 14 games in conference.

With this squad currently, 12-6 is an absolute pipe dream. I will jump up and down if they could find a way to finish .500 in conference, but I don't see it. I also don't see much evidence to convince me that this team could beat a top 25 type team right now. For gawds sake, we lost to Memphis.....AT HOME. For those that think we are going to magically "flip a switch" and get better quickly probably need to dial back their expectations. I would love for this team to make me eat crow, but this year is turning out to be a genuine "rebuilding" year. And if they can improve incrementally and find an identity, then we should be in good shape for next year.

 

[Sooner04]

Before the season I aspired to a 9-3 non-con and a 10-8 record in the Big 12. 1-1 in KC would be 20-12 and a solid seed in the Dance.

Problem is this team doesn't seem to know how to win. I'm not sure you magically learn that.

I think we'll beat Florida. That's 7-5 non-con, but I don't see anything better than 7-11 or 8-10 in the league.

Onward and upward!

 

[AltSooner33]

Gotta think anyone that finishes .500 or better in the Big 12 is under serious consideration to make the dance this year


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I would feel pretty certain that's the case for every other big 12 team, besides OU or Texas, based on how non conference went. Don't see any way how a .500 conference record could put those teams in.

 

[okhoops918]

Our 2008 team was rewarded with a 6-seed after going 22-11 in a much weaker Big 12 Conference.

I don't think this team is going to go 12-6, but I do think it will require an 11-7 conference record to warrant serious consideration. I thought going 9-2 in the regular season would require 9-9 in conference to get in. We're obviously well off that pace.

Nice try but that 6 seeded team had 3-4 losses that could be attributed to Griffin's injury which was heavily considered in our seeding that year.

No way a 12-6 record gets us anything but a 8,9,10 seed.

Plus, like others said...that isn't even discussing the unlikelihood of that even happening. I was just pointing out how far away we are from tourny this year. Even at 12-6, we are juts barely in the tournament.

No way this team goes 12-6. We will be lucky to get to .500

 

[Sooner04]

Nice try but that 6 seeded team had 3-4 losses that could be attributed to Griffin's injury which was heavily considered in our seeding that year.

Refresh my memory. Which losses were those you are referencing?

 

[okhoops918]

Refresh my memory. Which losses were those you are referencing?

he was out for KU and less than 100% the following few weeks where we dropped 3 in a row.
Regardless this team doesn't have a BG to get the positive pub that we had then. We won't be getting any favors come selection time

 

[JBaker]

We are 6-5.

12-6 plus a win vs UF would get us to 19-11. That is a bubble record and our recent performance in conference would put us in a great position to be on the good side of the bubble. Win 1 or 2 in tourny and we would def be in as a 9/10 seed.

21-12 is NOT a 5 seed record. A 5 seed at this point would require winning 14 games in conference.

Baylor was a 5 seed at 22-11 last year. If we somehow got to 12 conference wins, we would have multiple wins over VERY good teams, and likely finish second or third in the best conference in the country.

 

[pnkranger]

12-6 with a win over Florida + one big 12 tournament win gets you in the 6-7 conversation (depending a lot on who you beat in conference).

Win two in the big 12 tournament with that record, and you are a shoe in as a 6.

 

[OUSKINS]

At this point I'm simply accepting the fact that I was wrong about this season and I am trying not to take out my own poor prediction on Lon and the team. It appears my expectations were too high. I thought we'd be a shoe-in for the tourney and be fighting for a 4-10 seed.

Team isn't ready though. I think the youth combined with some post Final Four malaise, combined with some close/tough losses in non conferences have made for a bad early mix. The good news is that even if you had loftier expectations as I did, I also understood this was going to be a transition year. So if we wind up with 5-6 fewer wins than I thought due to a bad start, then so be it. It's not that huge of a deal.

Sure, symbolically making the Dance in a retooling year would be nice. Would be nice if a "down" season at OU was a #8 seed. I'm disappointed that it's still December and we are already realistically not in contention for March. That said, the season can still be saved IF....

We look beyond the record and the team genuinely improves from here and is a significantly better version of themselves by March. If that means we go 8-10 in conference and 14-15 overall, then OK. To me it would be more about how we are playing and how players have developed than it would be about win-loss record.

So the rest of this season comes down to some subjective analysis IMO. If we manage to win 10+ B12 games then it will be a success regardless. Anything less and it will depend on circumstance. Do we finish strong? Upset any really good teams? Freshmen develop? Offense become more consistent? Stuff like that.

I agree with others that 11-7 is probably our "bubble line." 11-7 in a very good conference and 17-12 overall likely puts them 1-2 wins away in the B12 tourney from making it. 12-6 and I'd think they would be a lock. I also agree that 11/12 B12 wins seems insanely far-fetched given what we've seen thus far. Beat Baylor Friday and maybe we can talk. Otherwise, my plan is to evaluate the season beyond the record. Disappointing to be saying that right now, but honestly, the Final Four run grants them a mulligan this season for me.

 

[AdaSooner]

Well said, OUSKINS!

You're not the only who had to temper his expectations for this team. On the other hand, I have seen signs, even in our losses, these kids could find an identity and come together as one unit to salvage what is left of the season in conference play.

Do I believe in my heart that will happen at this point? Not really. I realize now I was expecting too much from a relatively young team on the heels of losing three outstanding seniors who carried us to a final four finish. I haven't given up completely. I'm just coming to grips with reality for a change.

 

[j2d2]

I think Kruger will have the light come on for these kids about Big XII tournament time and nobody will want to play us.