Now playing for seed the rest of the way

[152219]

:woot

 

[AdaSooner]

Agreed. But if the last ten games is a piece of the puzzle the committee looks at, we still have some work to do.

I'll feel a lot better if we win 3 of the 4, and do no worse than go 2 and 2.

 

[SoonerInJersey]

Avoid the five seed! That is all!

 

[MNsooner]

Avoid the five seed! That is all!

I'd love the 5 seed. Why wouldn't you want that?

 

[Chaser728]

I'd love the 5 seed. Why wouldn't you want that?

Yes. I think we want to avoid the 7, 8, 9, 10. A 5 would be a great place to be. With a potential game against a #4, why wouldn't that be desired?

 

[Max Power]

A 12 always beats a 5

 

[WaymanFan]

I'll feel comfortable that we're playing for seed once we get to 21 wins. If we lost our last 5 games and finished 20-12, that just screams BUBBLE.

20 wins - bubble
21 - #10 / #11
22 - #8 / #9
23 - #6 / #7
24 - #4 / #5
25 - #4
26 - #3 / #4
27 - #3

 

[MNsooner]

A 12 always beats a 5

That's all illusion. 5 seeds win most of the time (at pretty much the same rate as 6 seeds, but a higher rate than 7+ seeds). They also split pretty evenly in the second round. If we are a 5 seed we should be excited about our sweet 16 chances.

 

[SoonerInJersey]

I'll feel comfortable that we're playing for seed once we get to 21 wins. If we lost our last 5 games and finished 20-12, that just screams BUBBLE.

20 wins - bubble
21 - #10 / #11
22 - #8 / #9
23 - #6 / #7
24 - #4 / #5
25 - #4
26 - #3 / #4
27 - #3

OU is not on the bubble. OU is in.

 

[Ham]

5 vs 12, 6 vs 11, it's a statistical tie. The upset happens 35% of the time.
4 seed wins 78.5% of the time, so there is a solid difference. In other words, one 5 seed (and each one higher than 5) are essentially guaranteed to lose every year.

7 vs 10, the 10 wins 40% of the time.
So there's not a lot of difference between being a 5, 6 or 7.

For the record, 9 seed beats the 8 seed 52% of the time.

 

[MNsooner]

I think 5 and 6 seeds are a wash in the first round, but 5 seeds fair quite a bit better in the second round.

 

[NickZepp]

I think 5 and 6 seeds are a wash in the first round, but 5 seeds fair quite a bit better in the second round.

This is pretty much the reason you want OU to be a 5 seed. Unless you are a 1-3 seed you have a good shot at losing game one in the NCAA Tournament. 7-10 game sucks because not only is it a 50/50 game you play a top 8 team in the country the next round. 6-11/5-12 are instantly way better for those reasons alone.

 

[BCSooners]

OU is not on the bubble. OU is in.

I think he meant we will be on the bubble if we lose our next 5 games.

 

[pnkranger]

Barring a total collapse, we'll be somewhere between 4 and 7. IF we go 3-1 in our next 4, that leaves us at 23-8 and probably a 4/5 seed in the NCAA tournament with a chance to increase/decrease in the Big 12 tourney.

LONG SHOT, but: If we win the big 12 tourney, I think a 3 seed is possible. That would mean we are 26-8 going into the tournament with a finish of 9-2 down the stretch and a stellar road + neutral record.

No way we can make it to a 2 seed. Losses to La Tech and Texas Tech at home will keep us from that even with winning out.

 

[slappy in OP]

At the start of the year, I would have been content to just make the NCAA tournament. This team has far outperformed what I expected. Even with some losses that we could have pulled of (La Tech and WVU), we have had a great season to this point. To get a 5 seed would be a major accomplishment.

 

[Ham]

I think 5 and 6 seeds are a wash in the first round, but 5 seeds fair quite a bit better in the second round.

Stats here: http://mcubed.net/ncaab/seeds.shtml

The 5 plays either the 4 or 13 in round two.
37-46 vs the 4 and 11-3 vs the 13,
Total second round record of 48-49 for a 5-seed.

The 6 plays either the 3 or the 14 in round two.
37-44 vs the 3 and 12-2 vs the 14
Total second round record of 49-46 for a 6-seed.

The 6 has a better overall second round record and more overall wins over the entire tournament, 170 vs 159.

That said, clearly there is little difference between being a 5 and 6 in the first two rounds.

But there is a fairly substantial difference between the 7 and those two.
So that's where we want to be - 6 or better.

 

[stormspencer]

Barring a total collapse, we'll be somewhere between 4 and 7. IF we go 3-1 in our next 4, that leaves us at 23-8 and probably a 4/5 seed in the NCAA tournament with a chance to increase/decrease in the Big 12 tourney.

LONG SHOT, but: If we win the big 12 tourney, I think a 3 seed is possible. That would mean we are 26-8 going into the tournament with a finish of 9-2 down the stretch and a stellar road + neutral record.

No way we can make it to a 2 seed. Losses to La Tech and Texas Tech at home will keep us from that even with winning out.

I think our ceiling is a 4 seed if we were to somehow win out (including the Big 12 tournament). If we can finish 3-1 and win a game or two in the Big 12 tournament, then a 5 seed is certainly a reasonable expectation.

The problem that we have (from what I've seen from most of the bracket matrix bloggers) is that teams in front of us aren't losing or they are losing at about the same rate as we are....so they have been difficult to jump in recent weeks. Most bracketology sites have us as a 6 or 7 right now. This is in part due to our lack of any quality wins in our nonconference portion (our best win was Mercer). In order to move up, we need to continue to win AND hope that teams like Iowa, UCONN, North Carolina, Ohio State, UCLA and UMASS lose some games down the stretch. Those teams I just mentioned are teams that we seem to be bunched together with right now in most bracket projections.

 

[MNsooner]

Stats here: http://mcubed.net/ncaab/seeds.shtml

The 5 plays either the 4 or 13 in round two.
37-46 vs the 4 and 11-3 vs the 13,
Total second round record of 48-49 for a 5-seed.

The 6 plays either the 3 or the 14 in round two.
37-44 vs the 3 and 12-2 vs the 14
Total second round record of 49-46 for a 6-seed.

The 6 has a better overall second round record and more overall wins over the entire tournament, 170 vs 159.

That said, clearly there is little difference between being a 5 and 6 in the first two rounds.

But there is a fairly substantial difference between the 7 and those two.
So that's where we want to be - 6 or better.

Thanks for looking up the data. Fingers crossed for 6 or better. That is very doable if we win at home.

 

[pnkranger]

I think our ceiling is a 4 seed if we were to somehow win out (including the Big 12 tournament). If we can finish 3-1 and win a game or two in the Big 12 tournament, then a 5 seed is certainly a reasonable expectation.

The problem that we have (from what I've seen from most of the bracket matrix bloggers) is that teams in front of us aren't losing or they are losing at about the same rate as we are....so they have been difficult to jump in recent weeks. Most bracketology sites have us as a 6 or 7 right now. This is in part due to our lack of any quality wins in our nonconference portion (our best win was Mercer). In order to move up, we need to continue to win AND hope that teams like Iowa, UCONN, North Carolina, Ohio State, UCLA and UMASS lose some games down the stretch. Those teams I just mentioned are teams that we seem to be bunched together with right now in most bracket projections.

I will agree with you -- unless we have the chance to beat KU twice. If we win out (7-0) with two wins over the #1 RPI team, we'll move into the top 12 of the RPI and have 15 top 100 RPI wins and a Road+Neutral record of 13-4.

Losses against the two Techs would hurt us, but our overall resume would be worthy of a three. If I were a 1 seed, I wouldn't want to play a 4 seed that just rolled through 9 straight big 12 games to end the season.