OU-VCU Statistical Plus/Minus Review

[DSMok1]

no coaches on any level agree with this statment

In terms of seeing how good a player is playing, this is accurate. In general, a great defensive rebounder can only gain 1 or 2 balls a game that would not have come to his team anyway were he not on the floor. There just isn't that big an impact.

The analysis checked to see the correlation between a player's defensive rebounding rates and the team's play when that player was on the floor. THERE WAS ALMOST NO CORRELATION. Read the end notes on the first post.

 

[SoonerinNC]

System I use showed
Gallon 24.6
Crocker 22.9
Wright 20.7
Tommy 17.8
Pledger 16.5
Fitz 13.3
Davis 6.5
Willie 1.7
Franklin 0
Willis -8.9

I go on points + assists + possessions gained - possessions lost. I don't agree that defensive rebounds should not count. It is a possession gained. I also exploded total points to a 40 minute game. That is why Fitz had 13.3 points. He took one shot and made it in limited minutes.

It would be nice to use defensive stats but defense is so fluid and you can not tell by the stats who really gave up the points with the check offs and switching from man to zone and all the substitutions. And it is further confused by the running game and going from playing big to playing small. For example if Tiny gets a jam on the break it probably is not the fault of the opposing center who may have been 15 feet behind Tiny when the break started.

Another example is Tiny dropped off too quick once on a ball screen and the guy hit a Trey. Not his man but his fault.