Shooting Percentage & Zone

[Oliver Hardy]

I'm going to play Syb right now to illustrate our biggest achilles heels.

If this doesn't change/get solved, it's going to bite us.

OU is in a shooting slump from the field. This is our most important problem and should be something that gets fixed ASAP, if it can be.

Since starting Big 12 play, OU has shot less than 40 percent from the field in four of our seven games in the win streak. In fact we shot a lousy 26 percent against Texas. Here are the stats from Sooner Sports

The game and our percentage from the field:

WVU 37.1
Kansas 41.4
Tech 53.6
Texas 26.2
TCU 58.3
OSU 36.7
Tech 39.6

Frankly, we're stinking it up. Shooting that kind of percentage under 50 percent of the time is going to get you beat about 85 percent of the time.

My point is, this can't continue if the girls or going to keep winning or not face a collapse as we face tougher teams again.

I know what the problem is, but I can't understand why -- or maybe I can.

We can't break the zone. If I was an opposing coach I would watch the tapes, review the stats and I would zone the ever-loving crap out of us every second of every game.

We can't break it on any consistent level. We can't get it into the post much of the time (tonight's game being a good example) and the defense are closing down on the perimeter players so fast we can't get a shot off.

The games where we have shot well from the outside, TCU and the first Tech game, we won going away.

We have to get shots off and relax and shoot quicker in my opinion, but you can only do that if you pass the ball like lightning and on target around the perimeter. How many of our back outside passes and cross courts almost flew over the receivers' hands tonight. About a dozen at least.

We are playing great defense during this stretch, IMO. We are rebounding better than any of us expected, I think. We are getting steals like crazy.

It's the shooting and breaking the zone, I'm telling you. If we can break those two barriers consistently, we are going to go a long, long way this year. If we don't, it's going to be a rocky finish.

The current situation is simply unsustainable for a long period of time. We just about ran out of time tonight.

 

[SoonerNorm]

It would be interesting to know the shooting percentages of the starters in all of the conference games. I think they shot better than that but I could be wrong.

 

[Oliver Hardy]

I'll try to look that up, if necessary. My guess is some did, most didn't.

 

[Soonercuda]

In the Texas game it was Texas that shot 26%. In conference games OU is shooting 46% from the field to lead the Big 12.

 

[Oliver Hardy]

Norm,

Here are the girls' individual shooting stats in BIG 12 conference play only. Backs up my point, I think.

Field/3-point percentages:

Ortiz 37/37
Carter 54/57
Little 39/18
Campbell 42/37
Kay-Kay 62/0

 

[Oliver Hardy]

Gentlemen and Ladies,

I made an error in my initial stats, misreading the stat sheet.

Here are OU's game shooting percentages from the field in all Big 12 games so far:

WVU 45.6
Kansas 41.4
Tech 48.1
Texas 34.6
TCU 58.3
OSU 54.5
Tech 39.6

That makes 2 games below 40 percent; one barely above, 2 in the mid-40s and two in the 50+ percentile.

I still think my original point is a strong, valid one. Even shooting less than 45 percent is going to get you beat regularly. We've avoided that. Texas is not going to shoot 26% again (well maybe they will Enemenpalli out). OSU is going to shoot better. Baylor's going to shoot better, as will KSU and ISU.

We have to improve from the field to keep our drive up.

Except for Carter we are atrocious from behind the arc in BIG 12 play too. Her are the 3-point percentage stats for the starting five, again in Big 12 conference play only:

Wiliams 0
Campbell 37
Ortiz 37
Carter 57
Little 18

 

[Oliver Hardy]

Cuda,

My point is the individual games and our shooting percentages in them, not overall. Overall, we are OK, but TCU and OSU skewed that percentage.

Our biggest shortcoming, right now, in our every game play is shooting from the field and shooting behind the arc. We need to be consistently better to ensure continued success and more Ws.

We can't always rely on our defense to hold a team down.

 

[Soonercuda]

Oliver you are simply wrong here. OU has shot great in Big 12 play, 1st in conference in overall FG shooting % at 46% and 2nd in 3pt shooting % at 36%.

 

[sybarite]

Well, while I agree that shooting percentage has been demonstrated to have been the best indicator of a team's probability of success, it might be appropriate to follow Cuda's advice and look at the conference shooting percentages, straight from the Big Twelve site:

Scoring offense:
1. Oklahoma 75.0
2. Baylor 70.6

Scoring Margin:
1. Baylor +18.4
2. Oklahoma +13.1

FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGE:
1. Oklahoma 46.3
2. Baylor 44.8

Field Goal Percentage Defense:
1. Baylor 31.1
3. Oklahoma 37.8

Three point percentage:
1. Baylor 36.5
2. Oklahoma 36.0

In almost every category that involves field goal percentage, Oklahoma and Baylor are first and second.

We are doing pretty well in conference play. Our guards are freshmen (Gabbi), and Sherri has to teach them how to deal with a zone. Notice that they tried to zone us in the last game, and we came out of the dressing room scoring about ten straight points.

 

[Oliver Hardy]

Syb, Again looking at conference play is a false logic because you've played TCU, Kansas and Tech twice.

In a single game, if you get beat on the boards or are even, and shoot poorly overall or badly from the 3 and your percentages around 40 percent for the game, most of the time you get beat.

At least that's what I believe. We've had two games shooting above 50 percent.

We are winning because of our defense/steals and rebounding, not because of our shooting percentages.

My stats come from OU directly. Do you think they are wrong?

 

[rocjunkie]

Oliver, I lean toward your theory, however one thing you are leaving out are the intangibles of this team. They know how to win. This is the first game that we did not win by double digits in the conference. Albeit, I knew they weren't going to win all that way, but it was a nice run. This team is doing things as a team to over come some of their shooting woes. All of the girls will scramble on the floor for loose balls. They clamp down on defense when they need stops. They are starting to play more inside/out possessions and the posts are recognizing double teams and finding open team mates. As far as attacking the zone, our spacing lacks a little to be desired, but I like that the posts are showing for the ball and they are finding open people. If we can get Gioya, Maddie, and Gabbi to attack off the dribble and pass to where the double team is coming from, we will be more successful. This is one of the smartest teams I have seen on the floor in some time, they aren't 7-0 in conference for being lucky. Tonight was one of their bad performances that was bound to come, and still they came away with a W. I have confidence that the kids will go to film study and figure out the weakness and come back better.

 

[Oliver Hardy]

Syb and Cuda,

Would you say those games we won by 10 or more points were because of our shooting, our defense, or both? I think you could make a case that our scoring defense (as you pointed out Sby) is below 38 percent.

I'm not saying we aren't doing ok offensively, I just believe it's got to get better starting next week if we want to be as successful as we have been so far in Big 12 play and as successful as we all hope the girls are by season's end.

We can't keep relying on Carter hitting 57 percent of her 3s or Gabbi bombing a 3 to bail us out in tight situations. Those are going to disappear at some point.

 

[SoonerNorm]

If a shooter has a 34% shooting percentage from BTA, that is very close to shooting 50% from the field. That's good shooting.

 

[Oliver Hardy]

Rock,

Good points. I agree with everything you said. If we starting hitting, like we did with TCU, we are going to open up that middle/low post area and Kay-Kay and ViVi will go wild. We have to hit from outside better.

I love our defense. I'm happy with the rebounding. Excited about our #of steals each game. Love how we are switching and playing tight up on zone and man-to-man (best I've seen OU do ever).

Just move the ball faster with passes. Make them good passes. Get the ball up quicker. Make more. Not simple, but doable, and I think the girls will at some point soon. We can't go on shooting 42 percent or lower in 50 percent of or games and not expect to get beat regularly.

 

[sybarite]

I don't get your logic. First, we have played TCU and Kansas once. You tend to use conference statistics because it becomes invalid to use our statistics playing Kentucky, South Florida, Washington, Arkansas, and Duke while some have feasted on the NE Alabamas and Texas Arlingtons of the world. Conference statistics offers comparison against others as compared to the other members of a conference.

Yes, we have played TCU and Kansas who are among the worst in the conference in defense against field goals. We have also played Texas and West Virginia who are among the best. OSU and Tech are kind of in the middle. What we have played is representative. If anything, the fact that we are deep and have been using backups to get them some experience when the score permits has skewed our percentages downward.

Our five starters are averaging: 139/290 47.93%. 34/90 for 37.77% from three. Those numbers would top the Big Twelve easily.

The stats are often up or down for a game because that is the way that the opponents play the game. We'll play with them for now.

 

[Sweetest OU Girl]

It is simply unreasonable to think a team has to shoot 60% or 70% most of the time to be successful. And does anyone actually think any team is going to shoot over 50% from BTA all or even most of the time?

Look through the national stats and make a list of all the teams that have done that.

The goal of most coaches is to shoot as close to 50% overall and as close to 40% as possible BTA. Those are goals - not achieved by many teams. In the last 10 years how many Big-12 teams have managed such numbers? So you set those kind of values as a goal and then find ways to be successful on nights when the shots are not dropping - just like OUr girls did today.

 

[Stringmusic]

i don't care how we win. Just win, baby.

 

[YCN]

i don't care how we win. Just win, baby.

You betcha. Magic isn't a listed stat.

 

[zacj33]

If a shooter has a 34% shooting percentage from BTA, that is very close to shooting 50% from the field. That's good shooting.

You are exactly right! I don't understand what point Oliver is trying to make. This team has shot pretty well during Big 12 play. OU is 12th in the nation in FG % at 46.3% and 45th in the nation in 3pt FG % at 35.3% for the whole season. This is out of 340+ teams

 

[sybarite]

Syb and Cuda,

Would you say those games we won by 10 or more points were because of our shooting, our defense, or both? I think you could make a case that our scoring defense (as you pointed out Sby) is below 38 percent.

I'm not saying we aren't doing ok offensively, I just believe it's got to get better starting next week if we want to be as successful as we have been so far in Big 12 play and as successful as we all hope the girls are by season's end.

We can't keep relying on Carter hitting 57 percent of her 3s or Gabbi bombing a 3 to bail us out in tight situations. Those are going to disappear at some point.

I agree with the basic premise that field goal percentage is the best indicator. It is not the only indicator, and it is a percentage thing rather than encompassing all elements. When Villanova shot 78% to upset Georgetown, that was field goal percentage.

It's difficult to say that we beat TCU because of field goal percentage defense when they hit 54%. There has to be some irony in the fact that we lost the field goal percentage battle in our closest Big Twelve game so far, by about 0.8%. We also lost the rebound battle, 41-38. But, we did win the turnover battle, 19-12. It and free throws were about it. I would have felt better with a few more turnovers and a fifteen point win.

It is interesting that in seven games, we have won the field goal percentage battle five times, with the only two losses coming against two of the worst teams in the Big Twelve: Kansas and Texas Tech. Against both, we had the unlikely event of winning the turnover battle. We did outshoot Tech in Lubbock, and lost the turnover battle.

At times, I think we play a suffocating defense. We knew what Texas could do, and we shut it down. This team wins because it does have the talent to do exactly that---to beat you with your game. We don't know if we can beat Iowa State and Baylor that way because we haven't seen them. But, the hallmark of this team is not one statistic, but an attitude that rises above to accomplish what wins.