Shooting Percentage & Zone

[tooney]

It is simply unreasonable to think a team has to shoot 60% or 70% most of the time to be successful. And does anyone actually think any team is going to shoot over 50% from BTA all or even most of the time?

Look through the national stats and make a list of all the teams that have done that.

The goal of most coaches is to shoot as close to 50% overall and as close to 40% as possible BTA. Those are goals - not achieved by many teams. In the last 10 years how many Big-12 teams have managed such numbers? So you set those kind of values as a goal and then find ways to be successful on nights when the shots are not dropping - just like OUr girls did today.

I have little to add.....this is what I was thinking. Our girls shoot better when they get comfortable, like most others. Taking bad shots is what hurts.:chestram2:

 

[Oliver Hardy]

I stuck to conference, Syb, because of our win streak. I was taking a look at when we've played our best because I believed that would show a more fair assessment of what is going on.


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[Oliver Hardy]

The point I'm trying to make is that our shooting needs to consistently be in the 45-50 percent area to be a more complete team that wins the conference, tournament and goes deep in the NCAA. We need to shoot 40 percent consistently from the 3.

We can't just count on Goyia 's shooting or Kay-Kay's post percentage.?


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[Oliver Hardy]

I think it is the final piece of the puzzle this season. I never said I think we should be making 60% percent of our shots.




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[SoonerSpock]

The point I'm trying to make is that our shooting needs to consistently be in the 45-50 percent area to be a more complete team that wins the conference, tournament and goes deep in the NCAA. We need to shoot 40 percent consistently from the 3.

We can't just count on Goyia 's shooting or Kay-Kay's post percentage.?


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That might be a little bit too high of an expectation as UConn is leading the country shooting 40.5 BTA. Shooting 37.5% BTA would rank you 17th. Shooting 37.5 from 3 would be equivalent to 56.25% ITA. I'll take that day and night and twice on Sunday. In conference we are shooting .360 BTA which equals 54% ITA. Not great but not bad either. Note only two teams are shooting 50% from the field. UConn 53.5% and Notre Dame 50.0%

 

[sybarite]

Let's make a little observation that reveals a little about this team. Don't look at the starters. Just looking at the reserves.

FGA 99
FG 41
FG% 41.41
three point attempts 24
Three point field goals 7
Three point percentage: 29.2%

That field goal percentage would rank the reserves fifth in the conference as a team. The three point field goal percentage of the reserves would rank ahead of Kansas State, Texas, and West Virginia.

 

[j2d2]

Everybody loves offense buty what helped us win those games where we didnt shoot well is the improved defense. This team plays better defense that we have historically. THAT will win games (1) you shouldnt win and(2) save games when you're not shooting well and(3)provide offense.

 

[Oliver Hardy]

Please, no one get me wrong.

I think everyone one of our girls are playing great. I think Sherri and her staff have done the best job they may have ever done in turning a club from a dud of a season last year to a real contender this year.

I just think we need to nudge up our shooting percentages a bit to give us the final weapon to really take great strides forward. It seems the easiest thing to improve, IMO.

 

[keysersose]

I think it is the final piece of the puzzle this season. I never said I think we should be making 60% percent of our shots.




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Well, Oliver, all I can say is that this is another fine mess that you have gotten us in!

 

[soonermike22]

Old style me says you win in bb by;
1) hard nose defense
2) rebound the he!! out of every shot, and control the defensive board
3) work to get good shots that that particular player can shoot at a high percentage
4) game plan particular opponents

We are strong on defense, fair at rebounding, getting better at picking our shots, and SC is really good at game plans.
IMO we are shooting and playing well enough to win our games, but need to continue to improve on rebounding, and getting players into better position for their shots. That does definitely include quick passes, penetrate and kick, and/or inside/outside for better 3 %.

 

[sybarite]

If your defense is so fantastic that the other team doesn't score, you still haven't won.

Defense helps keep you in games. It doesn't win them.

 

[SoonerNorm]

Old style me says you win in bb by;
1) hard nose defense
2) rebound the he!! out of every shot, and control the defensive board
3) work to get good shots that that particular player can shoot at a high percentage
4) game plan particular opponents

We are strong on defense, fair at rebounding, getting better at picking our shots, and SC is really good at game plans.
IMO we are shooting and playing well enough to win our games, but need to continue to improve on rebounding, and getting players into better position for their shots. That does definitely include quick passes, penetrate and kick, and/or inside/outside for better 3 %.

Great post, I could not agree more!

 

[Oliver Hardy]

I have been one of the first to highly praise our defensive efforts in the run. Same with rebounding. Goiya and Peyton have been a real god-send on the boards. Without them, I don't know where we would be.

Can anyone remember a better overall defense in the Sherri era? I cannot. Not even with the twins, Amanda, Rothlesberger, Rush, Hand or anyone.

 

[sybarite]

I have been one of the first to highly praise our defensive efforts in the run. Same with rebounding. Goiya and Peyton have been a real god-send on the boards. Without them, I don't know where we would be.

Can anyone remember a better overall defense in the Sherri era? I cannot. Not even with the twins, Amanda, Rothlesberger, Rush, Hand or anyone.

I don't really think of the Courtney years as being due to great defense. It was a good defense. The only time since 2002 that we have played defense this well was during the Big Twelve tournament when Maria was a senior. That came out of nowhere.

This defense has a smarts and quickness to stand its ground. Occasionally, the officials can make some silly calls that disrupt it, often calling phantom fouls near the basket. But, this defense can be almost shut down, as Texas found. I don't think it was that intense last night. There was a bit of coasting done.

 

[soonermike22]

If your defense is so fantastic that the other team doesn't score, you still haven't won.

Defense helps keep you in games. It doesn't win them.

Syb, you are usually right on, but I have to disagree somewhat with the above statement.
If you play great offense and poor defense, you won't win many games because your opposition can game plan against your offense.
If you play great defense you give yourself the opportunity to win every game. Defense includes rebounding, stopping fast breaks, break away steals for uncontested lay-ups, and control of your fouls.

 

[sybarite]

Syb, you are usually right on, but I have to disagree somewhat with the above statement.
If you play great offense and poor defense, you won't win many games because your opposition can game plan against your offense.
If you play great defense you give yourself the opportunity to win every game. Defense includes rebounding, stopping fast breaks, break away steals for uncontested lay-ups, and control of your fouls.

How can you possibly disagree?

First sentence: If your defense is so fantastic that the other team doesn't score, you still haven't won.

Is there any possible disagreement? You have to score at least one point.

Second sentence: Defense keeps you in games. It doesn't win them.

Well, actually, that is two sentences. But, again, you can't possibly disagree. Can you?

Defense keeps the game under some control, but the most definitive correlation, as I have pointed out many times, is field goal percentage. It is very closely related to the best teams in the nation.

When I put forward an analysis of NCAA statistics with respect to ranking, what stood out was that platitudes are exactly that. Defense and turnovers are only somewhat related.

I don't think you can win without a respectable defense. But, I would suggest that once you have a respectable (as opposed to sensational) defense, offense is the key. Teams that don't score don't win. I would rather be in the top twenty percent in defense. But, I would shift the emphasis on the platitudes to offense.

How many players are recruited strictly for defense? We tend to look at scoring averages. You don't see someone recruited who scores six points a game, but a good defender. It is a matter of emphasis.

 

[sybarite]

I'm about half playing around with this argument, especially since I find it obvious that some defense is necessary, but that it is necessary to be effective at scoring. For those of you who didn't see any of the analyses that I posted, you might like to study the NCAA stat pages. I'll just make a few observations.

Team leaders in scoring defense:
http://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-women/d1/current/team/112

South Carolina, Connecticut, Tennessee, Georgia, and Texas are in the top twenty. But, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Presbyterian, Texas Arlington, and Illinois Chicago are in that group as well. Notre Dame is pretty good, and they are #127. Iowa State is #160. Minnesota and Washington are flirting with the top 25, and they are tied for #198. Dayton is 222, and OU, second in the conference, is #250. Iowa is #253, and Kentucky is #258. Albany, AKron, Houston Baptist, Drake and East Tennessee State are up there, as is Oklahoma State, which speaks more to their non-conference schedule than to their competence. The difference is that the only top 25 team not in the top 100 is Kentucky which is about #158. They aren't good at defense or offense. They just foul.

http://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-women/d1/current/team/114

The strongest correlation that I have found is field goal percentage. It does help if you have decent defense.

If you look at field goal percentage, the top 25 is almost the top 25.

 

[SoonerNorm]

Syb, you are usually right on, but I have to disagree somewhat with the above statement.
If you play great offense and poor defense, you won't win many games because your opposition can game plan against your offense.
If you play great defense you give yourself the opportunity to win every game. Defense includes rebounding, stopping fast breaks, break away steals for uncontested lay-ups, and control of your fouls.

You bet! No one is going to beat UCONN unless they play GREAT defense. A great defense by Ohio St allowed them to make the high powered offense of Oregon look mediocre for the national championship. Switzer always said that defense wins championships. Our football team scored enough points in most games this year to win but when our defense was giving up 35 points or more, we still lost. Mike Stoops would have been fired if not for a sibling connection to the head coach. Sure, you have to score points but, most great coaches would tell you if you want to build a great team, start with defense and then build an offense. Kelvin was a huge believer in defense and he won a ton of games in which scoring was hard to come by.

 

[soonermike22]

First off, scoring defense is a false stat if looked at by itself. Billy Tubbs style allowed lots of points by both teams, but it looked bad as a stat -points allowed- but looked very good in the win column. A slow down style makes "points allowed" look good, only because there are less possessions. Throw out scoring offense and scoring defense and look at points per possession. I will win every game I coach (excuse me-used to)if my point per possession is significantly higher than my opponent, whether they score 100 points or I only score 2.
Field goal percentage is some better, but it is effected by 2's vs 3's, turnovers, and fouls.
And if my defense can come close to a shut out on defense, I will score on breakaway steals-win the game with defense.
I could shoot 0% from the field, and win by making all my 100 (LOL) free throws.
Statistics looked at one at a time can deceive.

 

[sybarite]

That's why you don't say things like defense wins championships. Statistics looked at one at a time are deceptive.

It becomes more effective to look at correlations between successful teams and a given statistic, the probability of that statistic having an impact. Tubbs was accurate in that points per possession is a better indicator than fewest points allowed. At the same time as his teams were attacking passing lanes in defense, Grinell was scoring like mad, but not playing any defense. It showed.