Hard to hide my disappointment right now; the last three weeks have been a major air out of balloon for me in terms of my excitement level for the team in March. Prior to that KSU game I was legit pondering 2 seed and perhaps having a relatively clear path to Sweet 16. Now, I’m wondering if we can legit beat ANY team in the field seeded 11 or higher. Because the truth is, by the time we tip off our Tourney game, it will have been over a month since we beat anyone other than ISU. I’m thrilled there is even going to be a Tournament and I’m happy OU will be involved, but I’d be lying if I said I had any sort of hope of making a run.
That said, I’ll be rooting for the best possible scenario. So what is that?
I’d say for sure a 6 seed is the absolute best case. I also think a 9 seed would be the worst case. Let’s split the difference and say we are either a 7 or an 8. There’s actually a pretty big difference there this year. Baylor, Gonzaga, and Michigan are a cut above. We wouldn’t be paired with Baylor, but if we wound up with either Michigan or Gonzaga; we’d be in a BAD spot. We would first be playing a likely 50/50 game in round one and then we’d be huge underdogs in round 2. It would be a little different if it was Illinois or Ohio St (the likely last #1 seed) but still far from ideal.
A 7 seed is a little different. Probably not much difference in terms of round 1, but the projected 2 seeds look like a bunch of teams I think we could upset. For example, Houston is better than we are (and honestly, better coached) but we COULD beat them and it wouldn’t be some sort of monumental upset if we did.
So, that’s the drama for me on Sunday... do we stay on that 7 line or fall to the 8/9 game?
In terms of what “type” of team we want in round one, I would like to avoid a really sharp perimeter team. We play excellent half court defense. Only time we really get in trouble is if a team is hot from beyond the arc. If we can land a team that doesn’t shoot it so well, it really plays to our advantage. I don’t worry quite as much about teams with a good inside presence because we always lose that battle anyway. I’m more concerned about a team bombing away. Our offense just isn’t good enough to keep up. We need a team to miss shots so that we can run a little more and find easier shots on our end.
Looking at Bracket Matrix projected 10-11 seeds, I think we’d be favored against about half of them. So probably a toss up in terms of match-ups overall. Bottom line on Sunday is avoiding the 8/9 game and specifically avoiding a potential second round game against Gonzaga or Michigan.
That said, I’ll be rooting for the best possible scenario. So what is that?
I’d say for sure a 6 seed is the absolute best case. I also think a 9 seed would be the worst case. Let’s split the difference and say we are either a 7 or an 8. There’s actually a pretty big difference there this year. Baylor, Gonzaga, and Michigan are a cut above. We wouldn’t be paired with Baylor, but if we wound up with either Michigan or Gonzaga; we’d be in a BAD spot. We would first be playing a likely 50/50 game in round one and then we’d be huge underdogs in round 2. It would be a little different if it was Illinois or Ohio St (the likely last #1 seed) but still far from ideal.
A 7 seed is a little different. Probably not much difference in terms of round 1, but the projected 2 seeds look like a bunch of teams I think we could upset. For example, Houston is better than we are (and honestly, better coached) but we COULD beat them and it wouldn’t be some sort of monumental upset if we did.
So, that’s the drama for me on Sunday... do we stay on that 7 line or fall to the 8/9 game?
In terms of what “type” of team we want in round one, I would like to avoid a really sharp perimeter team. We play excellent half court defense. Only time we really get in trouble is if a team is hot from beyond the arc. If we can land a team that doesn’t shoot it so well, it really plays to our advantage. I don’t worry quite as much about teams with a good inside presence because we always lose that battle anyway. I’m more concerned about a team bombing away. Our offense just isn’t good enough to keep up. We need a team to miss shots so that we can run a little more and find easier shots on our end.
Looking at Bracket Matrix projected 10-11 seeds, I think we’d be favored against about half of them. So probably a toss up in terms of match-ups overall. Bottom line on Sunday is avoiding the 8/9 game and specifically avoiding a potential second round game against Gonzaga or Michigan.
