Sooners & Aggies

[j2d2]

Defense has NEVER been a priority with Sherri. Everly year I hear how hard they are working on defense and how big a priority it is and we continue to play poorly with no apparent change of tactics.

 

[Sweetest OU Girl]

In other words, if we could get all of our opponents to play bad enough we could win all of our games. Great concept.

You actually think we could win all our games remaining? That is a pretty weird expectation. Most of us just hope for a couple of wins over teh next few weeks.

But it will take some opponents playing at or even below their average skill set.

But don't expect us to win them all.

 

[inoref]

Other teams shoot better because we're small, slow and lack experience. I think we will win maybe two or three more. I also expect Colton to get bump to over 100k

 

[SoonerSpock]

I want to start by saying I'm not making excuses for our play - and I'm certainly not claiming we are a great team. We aren't. We are struggling in many aspects of the game.

But part of what is happening is really bad luck. Several teams we could have beaten have simply shot better than they normally do. Even free throws. I'm sure everyone under stands that free throw percentage in a given game has nothing to do with the quality of the opponent. At the end of the year a team will have shot a certain FT percentage. Some games better, some games worse. Teams are frequently having their best games - even at FT percentage against us. Same for 3 pt % and shooting %. Shooting is streaky. No one can explain why one game they hit 10 out of 12 3 ptrs, and the next game they hit 1 out of 12. We had a team that usually hits 65% of their free throws, but hit 96% against us - and got to shoot almost 25 free throws that night. It cost us the game.

Last night OSU was hitting shots they do not normally hit. Not easy open shots, but in many cases really hard, well covered shots.

It is similar to what all bookies know. In football, turnovers are based on luck to a great extent. Once that ball pops free, which way does it bounce? Whose arms does it bounce into? No one who fumbles plans which way it will bounce. They don't even intend to fumble. It is not a planned play. It involves luck. That is why bookies will tell you that if a team recovered a big percentage of fumbles one year, you need to plan on them having a negative stat in that category the next year. It means their win-loss record will be impacted by that fact. They make a lot of money by paying attention to things like that, while most gamblers never even have that concept enter their minds.

That is part of what is happening to us this year in WBB. Teams are having their best luck of the year in many cases in games against us. Later this year, or even next year that will even out. But it is really frustrating this year. We are creating enough problems of our own without needing that luck factor to play against us. We need a few teams to miss lots of shots that normally go in for them.

Not so! Poor use of an example for your point. You are right that the fumble recovery numbers will tend to average out over time but that time line may be 3 or 5 years. It is called the theorem of the law of large numbers. The larger the number of fumbles the closer the results will be to the expected value. Also who covered fumble "A" has no statistical impact on who covers fumble "B" i.e. there is no posterior probability associated with fumbles. In the real came of football there are factors such as coaching technique, aggressive style of play and team effort, etc. that has a realistic impact on frequency of fumbles and expected result of fumble recoveries.

Moreover your inference that luck is the the logical explanation for opponent shooting success in a game is bogus. From the free throw line luck could be a major factor but team emphasis of improving FT shooting could also be a factor. OU shot 55.4% from the line in the non-conference and are shooting 72.6% from the line in the conference. When it comes to shooting from the field luck will always have some impact but more likely opponent defense or lack thereof will be more of an impact.

It is no coincidence that OU is allowing a 42.1% FG completion defense % for the season for last place in the confernece with Tech next allowing 40.6%. Meanwhile the 4 best FG completion defense % are possessed by the 4 teams ranked 1-4 in the conference with Baylor allowing only 31.4% FG% against them. A full 10.3% fewer makes than the Sooners allow.

OU is doing better BTA defensively with both OSU and Tech worse than the Sooners.


http://big12statistics.com/sports/wbkb/2018-19/teams?sort=&r=0&pos=def

 

[Speedy17]

Other teams shoot better because we're small, slow and lack experience. I think we will win maybe two or three more. I also expect Colton to get bump to over 100k

OU has a shot at KU in Norman, Tech in Lubbock, and possibly OSU in Norman! However, I expect they will lose all three!! 5-26 would be a great beginning for Colton’s coaching career!!

 

[Sweetest OU Girl]

Not so! Poor use of an example for your point. You are right that the fumble recovery numbers will tend to average out over time but that time line may be 3 or 5 years. It is called the theorem of the law of large numbers. The larger the number of fumbles the closer the results will be to the expected value. Also who covered fumble "A" has no statistical impact on who covers fumble "B" i.e. there is no posterior probability associated with fumbles. In the real came of football there are factors such as coaching technique, aggressive style of play and team effort, etc. that has a realistic impact on frequency of fumbles and expected result of fumble recoveries.

Moreover your inference that luck is the the logical explanation for opponent shooting success in a game is bogus. From the free throw line luck could be a major factor but team emphasis of improving FT shooting could also be a factor. OU shot 55.4% from the line in the non-conference and are shooting 72.6% from the line in the conference. When it comes to shooting from the field luck will always have some impact but more likely opponent defense or lack thereof will be more of an impact.

It is no coincidence that OU is allowing a 42.1% FG completion defense % for the season for last place in the confernece with Tech next allowing 40.6%. Meanwhile the 4 best FG completion defense % are possessed by the 4 teams ranked 1-4 in the conference with Baylor allowing only 31.4% FG% against them. A full 10.3% fewer makes than the Sooners allow.

OU is doing better BTA defensively with both OSU and Tech worse than the Sooners.


http://big12statistics.com/sports/wbkb/2018-19/teams?sort=&r=0&pos=def

So you think gamblers only wager on guaranteed results? You've got to be smarter than that.

They are looking for odds in their favor - there are no guarantees. They know what you don't seem to know. If a team has been fortunate and beaten the odds for a while, it WILL catch up with them in time. That is where they place their lines.

Go do some research. How many times does a team hit 95% of their free throws? Is it ever done 2 games in a row? 3 games in a row? 100 games in a row? Is doing it skill or good fortune?

Teams hope their opponent does not have that kind of luck against them. I'm surprised you don't realize that.

 

[SoonerSpock]

So you think gamblers only wager on guaranteed results? You've got to be smarter than that.

They are looking for odds in their favor - there are no guarantees. They know what you don't seem to know. If a team has been fortunate and beaten the odds for a while, it WILL catch up with them in time. That is where they place their lines.

Go do some research. How many times does a team hit 95% of their free throws? Is it ever done 2 games in a row? 3 games in a row? 100 games in a row? Is doing it skill or good fortune?

Teams hope their opponent does not have that kind of luck against them. I'm surprised you don't realize that.

I apologize for talking over your head. The key word in you statement is time and that could be extended to be 1,3, 5 or ? games into the future.

First Vegas does not set odds based on what has happened in the past with regard to the odds. If you could grasp the laws of probability you would understand. Second Vegas place their lines based totally on where they identify the public will bet given a spread with the objective of having equal dollars placed on both sides of the bet. Consequently there can be a 2 or 3 point spread differential on the same game i.e. OU vs Texas the spread could be OU -1 in Oklahoma City and OU +1 in Austin solely because of the emotional betting preference of the fans of each school.

Second what % a team shoots in any game has no statistical bearing on what % a team will shoot in a later game. What they shoot later on is totally independent of what they did in a previous game. What you are really trying to say without knowing what you are talking about is that over a large number of games a team will trend to shoot at an average commensurate to their skill set.

However basketball FG% is subject to significant variance from game to game because of the human element and the FG% stat only have relevance when applied over a large number of games and then only describes the average not the norm. It is not unusal to see a team shoot 52%, 62%, 64%, 92%, 95% 86%, 75%, 59%, 74% and 62% from the line but shooting 59.3% the first 3 games having no bearing on shooting 91% the next 3 games. They are all mutually exclusive events. About all you can conclude is the team averages shooting about 72% from the line and nothing more.

 

[sybarite]

I'm not sure why you are arguing. It seems to be an attempt to rephrase a thought where you can argue about it.

I think it would be a pretty stupid coach who would ignore the history of a shooter. It's obvious that the coaches who play OU are aware that Taylor can hit the three. They guard her out there with two people at times. They leave Odimgbe wide open out there, with good reason. You do play probabilities.

There are times that drive you nuts. A kid who has only attempted nine three point shots all year hits four in a game, all at critical times. That has happened more than once. You tend to shoot what you have a track record of hitting, or your coach may instruct you otherwise while sitting on the bench.

As far as OU improving in FT%. Seems like a little. But, a lot of it is who is taking the free throw shots. Ana hits about 76%, and she has taken about six or seven shots per game since coming back. That tends to raise the percentages a bit.

 

[SoonerinNC]

Burned by one of those transfers for 33 points. Sherri has to get over that. We needed inside help this year.