TEvans4Three
OUHoops 2023 Bracket Champion and DATA GURU
- Joined
- Mar 14, 2011
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Just going to show some stats comparing our KenPom %s over the last 4 years and this year with cupcakes and some bad games under our belt.
Things we are doing well, compared to the previous seasons:
ON OFFENSE
-TO%, almost a record for us it feels like being under 15%...taking care of the ball at a Top-25 rate in KenPom.
-OR%, Finally...REBOUNDING ON OFFENSE! Yes, to be expected in OOC, but over 35%, next closest being 30.1% and ranked 74th in the nation.
-2P%, this is something that Moser teams do well. 58th in the nation now but pretty par for Moser teams.
-3PA, this is the highest rate of 3PA we have had under Moser's tenure. We are hitting at a worst 33.3% clip, so maybe not the best thing to be good at with volume.
-AdjO, we are actually 29th in offense this year. Tied for our highest rate last year rank wise, but highest value under Moser this year. (I expect it to go down with conf play)
ON DEFENSE
-FTR, FT Rate is at 64th in the nation and the lowest under Moser. I see this changing in conf play, but fouling less on shots is nice.
-2P%, We are defending the 2 at a very high rate, 55th in the nation and our highest defensively by far.
Things we are NOT doing well, compared to the previous seasons:
ON OFFENSE
-eFG%, this is the lowest, at 98th in the nation, that it has been under Moser's tenure. I think this is seen in the higher 3PA and lower 3P%.
-FTR, we are back to the below midway of all Div-I in getting to the line. Seen with our higher 3PA.
-3P%, this is the worst rate in Moser's tenure. Add that to our highest 3PA and this is a very bid discrepancy for our scoring and efficiency.
-FT%, I will say this is more negligable, being we are still at 74% which is a solid rate IMO, but 4th lowest in Moser's 5 years.
ON DEFENSE
-eFG%, TO%, OR%, we are middle of the road of all Div-I in all of these aspects. These are all 4th in Moser's tenure ranked over the last 5 years.
-3P%, this is our achilles heel. There is no doubt, 303rd ranked in Div-I and the next closest % we have been in his career is 31.8%. We are at 37%?! That is wild.
-AdjD, total adjust defensive efficiency, the worst it has been in Moser's tenure. 116th ranked ... the next closest has been 60th.
So moral of the story is our defense has been letting us down. Our offense is on par with our best season last year ,which was a 9 seed and we haven't made it to SEC play yet. Our defense has just been the worst in Moser's 5 years.
Bright spot? Defense is effort. If you can get guys to play defense better, secure better closeouts at the 3pt and better rotations you can close that gap much quicker than you can on offense. Downside? Half of the teams we have played are ranked 297 or lower in KenPom. We still have 3 more of those gutter stompers left before conference play.
Downside? Conference play starts Jan 3. We play KenPom ranked teams of 8, 13, 14, 18, 20, 23, 27, 29, 40, 44, 51, 52, 54, 58, 83, and 85. If you say we beat 83 and 85, okay...that is 2 wins. Then the games in the 40-58 range are BIG coin flips...the 8-29 teams, almost a loss unless we overcome. That predicted record looks like this:
8-29: 0-8
40-58: 4-4
83, 85: 2-0
6-12, not optimistic to think about, but a realistic look at where we stand right now. KenPom has predicted that we finish 7-11 with a 17-14 end of season record.
So can we scrape together more Wake Forest type of effort games?
Or are we bound for a mix of head-scratching Arizona St losses and Nebraska heartbreaks while constantly looking at high end producing G5 coaches.
Things we are doing well, compared to the previous seasons:
ON OFFENSE
-TO%, almost a record for us it feels like being under 15%...taking care of the ball at a Top-25 rate in KenPom.
-OR%, Finally...REBOUNDING ON OFFENSE! Yes, to be expected in OOC, but over 35%, next closest being 30.1% and ranked 74th in the nation.
-2P%, this is something that Moser teams do well. 58th in the nation now but pretty par for Moser teams.
-3PA, this is the highest rate of 3PA we have had under Moser's tenure. We are hitting at a worst 33.3% clip, so maybe not the best thing to be good at with volume.
-AdjO, we are actually 29th in offense this year. Tied for our highest rate last year rank wise, but highest value under Moser this year. (I expect it to go down with conf play)
ON DEFENSE
-FTR, FT Rate is at 64th in the nation and the lowest under Moser. I see this changing in conf play, but fouling less on shots is nice.
-2P%, We are defending the 2 at a very high rate, 55th in the nation and our highest defensively by far.
Things we are NOT doing well, compared to the previous seasons:
ON OFFENSE
-eFG%, this is the lowest, at 98th in the nation, that it has been under Moser's tenure. I think this is seen in the higher 3PA and lower 3P%.
-FTR, we are back to the below midway of all Div-I in getting to the line. Seen with our higher 3PA.
-3P%, this is the worst rate in Moser's tenure. Add that to our highest 3PA and this is a very bid discrepancy for our scoring and efficiency.
-FT%, I will say this is more negligable, being we are still at 74% which is a solid rate IMO, but 4th lowest in Moser's 5 years.
ON DEFENSE
-eFG%, TO%, OR%, we are middle of the road of all Div-I in all of these aspects. These are all 4th in Moser's tenure ranked over the last 5 years.
-3P%, this is our achilles heel. There is no doubt, 303rd ranked in Div-I and the next closest % we have been in his career is 31.8%. We are at 37%?! That is wild.
-AdjD, total adjust defensive efficiency, the worst it has been in Moser's tenure. 116th ranked ... the next closest has been 60th.
So moral of the story is our defense has been letting us down. Our offense is on par with our best season last year ,which was a 9 seed and we haven't made it to SEC play yet. Our defense has just been the worst in Moser's 5 years.
Bright spot? Defense is effort. If you can get guys to play defense better, secure better closeouts at the 3pt and better rotations you can close that gap much quicker than you can on offense. Downside? Half of the teams we have played are ranked 297 or lower in KenPom. We still have 3 more of those gutter stompers left before conference play.
Downside? Conference play starts Jan 3. We play KenPom ranked teams of 8, 13, 14, 18, 20, 23, 27, 29, 40, 44, 51, 52, 54, 58, 83, and 85. If you say we beat 83 and 85, okay...that is 2 wins. Then the games in the 40-58 range are BIG coin flips...the 8-29 teams, almost a loss unless we overcome. That predicted record looks like this:
8-29: 0-8
40-58: 4-4
83, 85: 2-0
6-12, not optimistic to think about, but a realistic look at where we stand right now. KenPom has predicted that we finish 7-11 with a 17-14 end of season record.
So can we scrape together more Wake Forest type of effort games?
Or are we bound for a mix of head-scratching Arizona St losses and Nebraska heartbreaks while constantly looking at high end producing G5 coaches.
