The top ten...

[elmocarp]

OK, so am I the only one that feels like the top 10 is a little odd? I guess the top 6 are pretty hard to argue with, but I think there are some pretty interesting things going on there. First of all, I don't get why Villanova isn't the hands down #2 team in the country. They lost Cunningham and Anderson, but they bring back Reynolds and the two Coreys, Redding, and Pena. Then throw in a recruiting class as good as anyone's (Yarou, Armwood, Cheek and Wayns) plus redshirt big man Maurice Sutton and Duke transfer Taylor King. They are a team loaded with juniors and seniors and they're coming off a final four run last year. I just don't get how they're ranked 5th and 6th in each poll. I feel like Kentucky is the only team you could make a good case for being better than Nova (though I'm not buying that).

Also, am I crazy for thinking that Michigan State, Texas and UNC aren't the mortal locks for greatness that everyone else does? Suton not only helped MSU inside but he also helped hide some of their perimeter issues. They are bringing in a couple of nice bigs, but they really seem to have a lot of questions outside of Lucas and Morgan.

UNC literally lost a ton of production and experience. But who the heck is their point guard? Larry Drew? Can Henson play the 3 like everyone thinks? Their guard play has questions all over it. And remember, last year with guys like Ellington and Green they looked like a totally different team without Lawson. Who makes them go this year?

And Texas is certainly talented and athletic as anyone, no question. But its still a team that had a hard time scoring next year and lost its top scorer by far in Abrams. Do any of us believe that Lucas or Brown are really the answer at point guard? And Damion James is still going to want to play minutes at the 3, which is always a good lineup for UT opponents. I'm sure they will be stellar defensively, but I just don't see them being good enough on offense to really make a deep March run.

Anyway, what do you all think? Also, what team outside of the top 6 do you think can challenge those guys?

 

[jmill1200]

Its a preseason poll, none of it matters. The pretenders will be washed out and the contenders will show their true colors. Thankfully we have a tournement to decide the champ. I hate preseason polls, half of its based on opinion. I don't really pay attention to the polls till after the season is well under way. That said, I think Kansas is clearly the best team and will be the only team that remains in the top 5 the whole year. The rest of the teams will rotate positions all year long, JMO.

 

[elmocarp]

Its a preseason poll, none of it matters. The pretenders will be washed out and the contenders will show their true colors. Thankfully we have a tournement to decide the champ. I hate preseason polls, half of its based on opinion. I don't really pay attention to the polls till after the season is well under way. That said, I think Kansas is clearly the best team and will be the only team that remains in the top 5 the whole year. The rest of the teams will rotate positions all year long, JMO.

Wow, thanks for the thread kill. I wasn't lauding the merits of preseason polls, I was just curious about what people's opinions are for the upcoming season.

Oh, and I can't help myself, but if half of the preseason poll is based on opinion, what is the other half based on? I kind of assumed it was 100% opinion...

 

[jmill1200]

Wow, thanks for the thread kill. I wasn't lauding the merits of preseason polls, I was just curious about what people's opinions are for the upcoming season.

Oh, and I can't help myself, but if half of the preseason poll is based on opinion, what is the other half based on? I kind of assumed it was 100% opinion...

Its not opinion, when Kansas brings back all of their main players. Just an example. I agree with you, most of its opinion. Sorry I didn't give you an exact %, 50-50 sounds good enough to me, since their is no way to produce an actual %

 

[campbest]

OK, so am I the only one that feels like the top 10 is a little odd? I guess the top 6 are pretty hard to argue with, but I think there are some pretty interesting things going on there. First of all, I don't get why Villanova isn't the hands down #2 team in the country. They lost Cunningham and Anderson, but they bring back Reynolds and the two Coreys, Redding, and Pena. Then throw in a recruiting class as good as anyone's (Yarou, Armwood, Cheek and Wayns) plus redshirt big man Maurice Sutton and Duke transfer Taylor King. They are a team loaded with juniors and seniors and they're coming off a final four run last year. I just don't get how they're ranked 5th and 6th in each poll. I feel like Kentucky is the only team you could make a good case for being better than Nova (though I'm not buying that).

Also, am I crazy for thinking that Michigan State, Texas and UNC aren't the mortal locks for greatness that everyone else does? Suton not only helped MSU inside but he also helped hide some of their perimeter issues. They are bringing in a couple of nice bigs, but they really seem to have a lot of questions outside of Lucas and Morgan.

UNC literally lost a ton of production and experience. But who the heck is their point guard? Larry Drew? Can Henson play the 3 like everyone thinks? Their guard play has questions all over it. And remember, last year with guys like Ellington and Green they looked like a totally different team without Lawson. Who makes them go this year?

And Texas is certainly talented and athletic as anyone, no question. But its still a team that had a hard time scoring next year and lost its top scorer by far in Abrams. Do any of us believe that Lucas or Brown are really the answer at point guard? And Damion James is still going to want to play minutes at the 3, which is always a good lineup for UT opponents. I'm sure they will be stellar defensively, but I just don't see them being good enough on offense to really make a deep March run.

Anyway, what do you all think? Also, what team outside of the top 6 do you think can challenge those guys?

I'm game Elmo...

My biggest problem is with UNC and MSU. The Tar Heels lost TONS of talent, while they do have young talent coming up, it's tough to beat that experience they've had the past few years. With that being said, I think they're still a top 10 team...don't really see anyone else outside that range that should go in front of them.

I'm not sold on MSU just yet and here's why. As much as Lucas gets praise for last year, when Suton was out, they struggled mightily. He was their MVP IMO as well as someone who spread the floor as a big who can stroke. Until Raymar Morgan steps up and becomes a player, I think they struggle a bit this year. He has yet to live up to any of the hype coming into East Lansing and unless he contributes at a higher level, they're not the #2-#5 team in the nation.

Just outside the top 10, Tennessee is way too high, they haven't proven anything to deserve such a ranking. Until Bobby Maze figures out how to play point, they will continue to struggle as well.

 

[elmocarp]

Its not opinion, when Kansas brings back all of their main players. Just an example. I agree with you, most of its opinion. Sorry I didn't give you an exact %, 50-50 sounds good enough to me, since their is no way to produce an actual %

sigh...

I'm sorry that I made you feel like I was nit-picking, and I hate to be annoying and do it again, but every single poll is 100% opinion and absolutely nothing else. Voters may observe facts for the purposes of informing their opinion, but all the polls are is a collection of opinions. It isn't a fact that Kansas is the best team in the country this year. Its an opinion. Referencing that they bring back all of their main players doesn't make it a fact that they are #1. I don't get what you're saying. Anyway, I wasn't suggesting your percentage needed tweaking...I was saying that suggesting the polls are anything other than opinion doesn't make sense, thats all.

Anyway, all I was hoping to do was hear what people thought of the various teams at the top as we head into the season. Maybe we can get that discussion going...

 

[gracefor24]

I think MSU will be strong due to Lucas being very underrated and Roe being fully healthy but I agree that they will miss Suton a TON.

Also, UNC losing Lawson, Hansborough, Ellington, and Green is ridiculous. Basically the same as KU last year. Lawson made that team tick and they are taking a huge step down in talent and production with Larry Drew. They will be good but not great.

I think Duke is overrated as well, they are Charmin soft and unathletic.

UT is a wild card. I tend to think they could have some chemistry issues. Both their guys that are slated to run the point are shoot first and have a history of being less than stellar teammates (Lucas/Brown), their third PG can't shoot a lick but is probably my favorite of the 3 (Balbay). It's just really difficult when you rely on all newcomers on the perimeter for your scoring. KU in 05-06 is a great example with Rush, Chalmers, Downs, and Wright. They struggled early, hit their stride in conference, then choked it off in the tourney. I could see Texas easily doing the same even though James and Pittman are vets they don't strike me as strong leaders.

 

[jmill1200]

Hey Elmo,
Sigh..
You sound so ****y, like you know everything about CBB.
Sigh..like your taking care of something that doesn't even deserve your attention..Sigh


I think we should give you the Sigh young award, why do you even care what other people think since your the official Guru here?

 

[elmocarp]

I'm game Elmo...

My biggest problem is with UNC and MSU. The Tar Heels lost TONS of talent, while they do have young talent coming up, it's tough to beat that experience they've had the past few years. With that being said, I think they're still a top 10 team...don't really see anyone else outside that range that should go in front of them.

I'm not sold on MSU just yet and here's why. As much as Lucas gets praise for last year, when Suton was out, they struggled mightily. He was their MVP IMO as well as someone who spread the floor as a big who can stroke. Until Raymar Morgan steps up and becomes a player, I think they struggle a bit this year. He has yet to live up to any of the hype coming into East Lansing and unless he contributes at a higher level, they're not the #2-#5 team in the nation.

Just outside the top 10, Tennessee is way too high, they haven't proven anything to deserve such a ranking. Until Bobby Maze figures out how to play point, they will continue to struggle as well.

Bless you camp...

I totally agree on UNC and MSU. If you call Suton their MVP from last year then you obviously watched them play. I view Lucas sort of like Darren Collison...he's a very good point guard and a very good leader, but he isn't a guy who can carry a team. You're right that Morgan really needs to take a big step forward, but they need Delvon Roe to start showing something too. I love Izzo as a coach, and I assume that is why they get the love, but I'm not sure it makes sense to put them ahead of Purdue.

UNC is a really interesting team to watch early in the year. Davis, Thompson and Zeller make for a pretty solid rotation up front (do they redshirt the twins?) and Henson is obviously a super talent, but can he play the 3? I really wonder. The only returning perimeter players they have are Ginyard, Graves and Drew, and they bring in Strickland and McDonald. So they have 6 guys for the 3 perimeter spots...two of them are seniors who haven't done anything to distinguish themselves in the previous 3 years, one is a sophomore who had the look of a Bobby Frasor-esque flop last year, a freshman who has played power forward his entire high school career and two freshmen guards, neither of whom is a point guard. I'm just not sure what this team actually looks like next year. I think a guy like Self or Izzo could get something out of this group, but I don't know about Roy. His teams are defined by their point guards (Felton, Lawson) and their pace and he doesn't have a point guard on the team.

And I totally agree about Tennessee. Pearl needs a guy like Lofton to kind of hold the chaos together. Since he lost Lofton they have just been out of control. I'm not a buyer.

BTW...as much as I hate them, this could be Duke's year to finally beat UNC with Roy. They still have no inside game and still aren't particularly athletic, but they still have a lot of skill players and Singler is an underrated star. I know this will piss a lot of people off, but he reminds me a ton of Eduardo with how hard he plays and how he effects the game. They have some obvious differences in their games, but he really shows me a lot of Ed's toughness and energy. Love the guy.

 

[elmocarp]

Hey Elmo,
Sigh..
You sound so ****y, like you know everything about CBB.
Sigh..like your taking care of something that doesn't even deserve your attention..Sigh


I think we should give you the Sigh young award, why do you even care what other people think since your the official Guru here?

Dude, I sincerely apologize. I put the sigh in there because I felt like I was getting dragged into a back-and-forth that I wasn't interested in, that's all. I certainly didn't mean any offense.

That said, I think what you wanted to say was that I "sound so ****y, like you think you know everything about CBB." Given the tone of the rest of your post, I assume thats what you meant. What you actually said, however, is that I sound like I know what I'm talking about. I assume that isn't your complaint, so I thought I'd help you out.

As far as being the "official Guru here", I think you must have me mistaken for DirtyMess or BigTime. Those guys are the go-to guys around here. I'm just a guy who likes to talk about hoops. Except with you. You can leave now...

 

[gracefor24]

I think you're underrating Lucas a bit, elmo, but I agree that Suton's game totally lifted that team. Suton absolutely killed KU.

I just don't think Duke has the horses to beat KU, Roy has just owned Duke with his style of play and the level of athletes that he throws at them.

This UNC team will be like the one after they lost Felton but before they got Lawson. Good but not great.

 

[elmocarp]

I think you're underrating Lucas a bit, elmo, but I agree that Suton's game totally lifted that team. Suton absolutely killed KU.

I just don't think Duke has the horses to beat KU, Roy has just owned Duke with his style of play and the level of athletes that he throws at them.

This UNC team will be like the one after they lost Felton but before they got Lawson. Good but not great.

I probably am, but as a KU fan I think you might be overrating him a tad after the way he dominated Collins last year. I saw a lot of them last year, and that was his best game of the year. The Collison comparison probably does sell him a little bit short, but I still think Izzo is what makes that team work...that roster doesn't look like a #2 team to me...

 

[jmill1200]

Elmo,
I'll leave when I'm ready to leave, you don't tell me what to do.
I've been reading these threads for awhile and I know your not the guru, your the guy who blows the most smoke. I'm sure you will find something to correct in this statement. Or tell me what I meant to say. In my original post, I said nothing directed to you. You asked, what everybody else thinks, if you don't like what they say, you start something. It was just my opinion, obviously you don't care, but don't act like you own the boards.

 

[campbest]

I probably am, but as a KU fan I think you might be overrating him a tad after the way he dominated Collins last year. I saw a lot of them last year, and that was his best game of the year. The Collison comparison probably does sell him a little bit short, but I still think Izzo is what makes that team work...that roster doesn't look like a #2 team to me...

If Lucas plays like he did in the tourney last year, he'll be first team All-American...he did not have a start-to-finish season like his tourney performance would make many think. Don't get me wrong, MSU is going to be good, Izzo is a hell of a coach and will adjust to whatever scheme works best. But until I see more out of their inside production (especially Morgan) and Lucas consistenly knock down everything he throws up, the jury is out as a top 5 team.

I know Texas may have chemistry issues, but I think they have a breakout year. Just too much talent coming off the bench, and with the influx of talent, it forces Damion James to play the 4. While not his favorite position (he wants to be a 3) that is where he is most effective. They get Wangmene back, even though he probably won't put up big numbers, he's a headache inside defensively and was a contributor the year before his injury. KU better watch out, I don't think they're that far ahead of UT, as some may think.

Side note: don't necessarily think any of these teams should be outside the top 10. Besides KU, it really is pretty wide open.

 

[elmocarp]

Elmo,
I'll leave when I'm ready to leave, you don't tell me what to do.
I've been reading these threads for awhile and I know your not the guru, your the guy who blows the most smoke. I'm sure you will find something to correct in this statement. Or tell me what I meant to say. In my original post, I said nothing directed to you. You asked, what everybody else thinks, if you don't like what they say, you start something. It was just my opinion, obviously you don't care, but don't act like you own the boards.

Seriously, I don't know why this bothers me so much but I don't want you to be mad at me. I am sorry, genuinely sorry for offending you. I don't understand what you are talking about when you say I came after you, or that I think I own the boards. I've gone back and looked at the posts, and you just came after me all hardcore in the middle of the thread. I thought I'd have a little fun with you, but you obviously feel genuine hostility over this. Please excuse me for being rude.

 

[gracefor24]

Seriously, I don't know why this bothers me so much but I don't want you to be mad at me. I am sorry, genuinely sorry for offending you. I don't understand what you are talking about when you say I came after you, or that I think I own the boards. I've gone back and looked at the posts, and you just came after me all hardcore in the middle of the thread. I thought I'd have a little fun with you, but you obviously feel genuine hostility over this. Please excuse me for being rude.

Yeah, dude is being a little over sensitive. Don't worry about it elmo.

Also, you're right that I am probably overrating Lucas a bit because of his killing KU last year. I like him better than Collison just because it seemed he was a much better clutch player than Collison ever was in college but otherwise it's a decent comparison. I agree that they're overall roster isn't that impressive, Izzo is the difference, and losing Suton is a MAJOR loss.

campbest, I agree that UT has a ton of talent but there is definite separation between them and KU simply from an experience standpoint and the fact that KU"s two best players are their two leaders. UT's going to go through some growing pains simply from having so many newcomers, like I said I think they will come together for a great conference season but they will be ripe for a tourney upset, imo.

 

[DSMok1]

OK, so am I the only one that feels like the top 10 is a little odd? I guess the top 6 are pretty hard to argue with, but I think there are some pretty interesting things going on there. First of all, I don't get why Villanova isn't the hands down #2 team in the country. They lost Cunningham and Anderson, but they bring back Reynolds and the two Coreys, Redding, and Pena. Then throw in a recruiting class as good as anyone's (Yarou, Armwood, Cheek and Wayns) plus redshirt big man Maurice Sutton and Duke transfer Taylor King. They are a team loaded with juniors and seniors and they're coming off a final four run last year. I just don't get how they're ranked 5th and 6th in each poll. I feel like Kentucky is the only team you could make a good case for being better than Nova (though I'm not buying that).

Also, am I crazy for thinking that Michigan State, Texas and UNC aren't the mortal locks for greatness that everyone else does? Suton not only helped MSU inside but he also helped hide some of their perimeter issues. They are bringing in a couple of nice bigs, but they really seem to have a lot of questions outside of Lucas and Morgan.

UNC literally lost a ton of production and experience. But who the heck is their point guard? Larry Drew? Can Henson play the 3 like everyone thinks? Their guard play has questions all over it. And remember, last year with guys like Ellington and Green they looked like a totally different team without Lawson. Who makes them go this year?

And Texas is certainly talented and athletic as anyone, no question. But its still a team that had a hard time scoring next year and lost its top scorer by far in Abrams. Do any of us believe that Lucas or Brown are really the answer at point guard? And Damion James is still going to want to play minutes at the 3, which is always a good lineup for UT opponents. I'm sure they will be stellar defensively, but I just don't see them being good enough on offense to really make a deep March run.

Anyway, what do you all think? Also, what team outside of the top 6 do you think can challenge those guys?

I don't think UNC will be top 10 for sure this year... They lost their whole team!!

Remember I posted about the NCAA Statistical +/-? This is one of those questions that can be addressed.

IGNORING incoming players, here are how the teams stack up:

Top 10, by "verified" talent--the average of the top 5 players returning on the team's 95% confidence levels:

1 Purdue
2 Kansas
3 Mississippi St.
4 Butler
5 Tennessee
6 Minnesota
7 Vanderbilt
8 Michigan St.
9 Mississippi
10 Duke

And the top 10, by returning actual contributions:

1 Kansas
2 Purdue
3 Duke
4 Michigan St.
5 Tennessee
6 California
7 Michigan
8 Ohio St.
9 Villanova
10 Minnesota

Combine that information with incoming freshmen, and you have a pretty good idea of who will be good:

ESPN Team Recruiting Rankings:
1 Kentucky
2 North Carolina
3 Villanova
4 Texas
5 Kansas
6 Oklahoma
7 Georgia Tech
8 Connecticut
9 Duke
10 Oklahoma St.

EDITED CUMULATIVE:
Cumulative:
1 Kansas
2 Purdue
3 Villanova
4 Duke
5 Texas
6 Tennessee
7 Michigan St.
8 California
9 Mississippi St.
10 Kentucky
11 Minnesota
12 Ohio St.
13 Michigan
14 Butler
15 Kansas St.
16 Connecticut
17 West Virginia
18 Maryland
19 Georgia Tech
20 Northern Iowa
21 Clemson
22 Utah St.
23 Brigham Young
24 Vanderbilt
25 Missouri
26 Oklahoma St.
27 Niagara
28 Oklahoma
29 Siena
30 Mississippi
31 South Carolina
32 Louisville
33 Washington
34 UCLA
35 Georgetown
36 Tulsa
37 Auburn
38 Notre Dame
39 Houston
40 Old Dominion

I get the sneaking suspicion that people are overlooking K State... they are top 25 in returning players and top 25 in recruiting also...

 

[tomkar98]

I don't think UNC will be top 10 for sure this year... They lost their whole team!!

Remember I posted about the NCAA Statistical +/-? This is one of those questions that can be addressed.

IGNORING incoming players, here are how the teams stack up:

Top 10, by "verified" talent--the average of the top 5 players returning on the team's 95% confidence levels:

1 Purdue
2 Kansas
3 Mississippi St.
4 Butler
5 Tennessee
6 Minnesota
7 Vanderbilt
8 Michigan St.
9 Mississippi
10 Duke

And the top 10, by returning actual contributions:

1 Kansas
2 Purdue
3 Duke
4 Michigan St.
5 Tennessee
6 California
7 Michigan
8 Ohio St.
9 Villanova
10 Minnesota

Combine that information with incoming freshmen, and you have a pretty good idea of who will be good:

ESPN Team Recruiting Rankings:
1 Kentucky
2 North Carolina
3 Villanova
4 Texas
5 Kansas
6 Oklahoma
7 Georgia Tech
8 Connecticut
9 Duke
10 Oklahoma St.

EDITED CUMULATIVE:
Cumulative:
1 Kansas
2 Purdue
3 Villanova
4 Duke
5 Texas
6 Tennessee
7 Michigan St.
8 California
9 Mississippi St.
10 Kentucky
11 Minnesota
12 Ohio St.
13 Michigan
14 Butler
15 Kansas St.
16 Connecticut
17 West Virginia
18 Maryland
19 Georgia Tech
20 Northern Iowa
21 Clemson
22 Utah St.
23 Brigham Young
24 Vanderbilt
25 Missouri
26 Oklahoma St.
27 Niagara
28 Oklahoma
29 Siena
30 Mississippi
31 South Carolina
32 Louisville
33 Washington
34 UCLA
35 Georgetown
36 Tulsa
37 Auburn
38 Notre Dame
39 Houston
40 Old Dominion

I get the sneaking suspicion that people are overlooking K State... they are top 25 in returning players and top 25 in recruiting also...

Dude that is some awesome "statage" you got going there! Thanks!