The Vegas Take

[WaymanFan]

All I know about gambling is that if I invested $10K and bet against OU in every game this calendar year, I'd be up about $100K right now. However, I only bet against OU one time in my life - the second round of the 1989 NCAA Tournament. I was so livid with them for my blood pressure skyrocketing after beating a #16 seed by one point, I bet $20 on Louisiana Tech to cover as a 7 point underdog. OU won by like 40 :ez-laugh: I was glad to have lost, but I would have gotten most my money back if I continued that trend when we played Virginia in the Sweet 16.

 

[OUSKINS]

That is peachy. But, factoring in the juice, one would have to pick 52.5%-53% just to break even. That is month after month, year after year, decade after decade to lay claim as a winning sports better. Plus, you have to get the amounts right.

The opportunity for long term profits betting sports is only available to a very few. And even at that, the margins are slim. If someone is capable of that, they should learn horses. In that game, sometimes, you can be a little and win a lot.

Futures man, that's where it's at. That is where actual acumen comes into play and luck isn't nearly as much a part of it. If you can identify in the pre-season over and under-valued teams then you can make bank on season over-unders or odds to win divisions, etc.

But the rub there is twofold:

1. Gotta be patient, No adrenaline rush, no immediate payoff.

2. If you want to make it matter, you gotta go pretty large and not many people want to part with a big chunk of change they won't be able to see again for months.

 

[WTSooner]

Anytime a sports bettor or poker player tell me they make money, my first impulse is always that either their record keeping or recollection is faulty. I suspicion that would be the case with you.

Not at all. I couldn't have afforded to keep doing it during this time frame (right out of college) if I wasn't winning. And it wasn't hard to track either, I was betting, really, on only a couple of games a week.

 

[garyeb2]

Sports bettors, poker players, and the like need to ask themselves this question. What can I do or what do I know that gives me a measurable and distinct advantage over EXPERTS? Almost without fail, the candid answer will either be, "I don't know" or "nothing".

 

[WTSooner]

Sports bettors, poker players, and the like need to ask themselves this question. What can I do or what do I know that gives me a measurable and distinct advantage over EXPERTS? Almost without fail, the candid answer will either be, "I don't know" or "nothing".

With me I'd say it was much I limited my focus. I basically only bet on Big 12 games. I watched every OU game, and most every other Big 12 game. And that is where I bet my money. And I had a specific type of line I looked for. That's what worked for me.

 

[garyeb2]

With me I'd say it was much I limited my focus. I basically only bet on Big 12 games. I watched every OU game, and most every other Big 12 game. And that is where I bet my money. And I had a specific type of line I looked for. That's what worked for me.

WT, if you can beat sports, you need to be betting sports. It is a rare gift. No time any more isn't an excuse. You waste enough of it pecking around on message boards to get your football homework done.

 

[sperry]

As others have said, it's the lack of discipline that dooms sports bettors most of the time.


Tilting, making homer bets, and betting on games just to bet on them. Betting for fun is fun. It's also a losing proposition as you're just going to flip coins and eat juice. Betting for profit is not fun for most, as it's just a matter of grinding and disciplining yourself. The guys that make money sports betting don't even watch the games, it's literally just a number crunch.


I think a lot people on this board could make a profit sports betting if they really set their minds to it and did it the right way. We have a lot of intelligent people here who are very knowledgeable about hoops (we've got some idiots too of course).

Again, the problem is discipline. That profit might not be very much, because it may be a matter of betting $20 a game on 3-4 games per week, winning 55% of the games. At $20 a game and 80 games for the season winning 55% and factoring in juice, you've made yourself a whopping $72. Which most people are not going to have the patience for.

 

[OUSKINS]

As others have said, it's the lack of discipline that dooms sports bettors most of the time.


Tilting, making homer bets, and betting on games just to bet on them. Betting for fun is fun. It's also a losing proposition as you're just going to flip coins and eat juice. Betting for profit is not fun for most, as it's just a matter of grinding and disciplining yourself. The guys that make money sports betting don't even watch the games, it's literally just a number crunch.


I think a lot people on this board could make a profit sports betting if they really set their minds to it and did it the right way. We have a lot of intelligent people here who are very knowledgeable about hoops (we've got some idiots too of course).

Again, the problem is discipline. That profit might not be very much, because it may be a matter of betting $20 a game on 3-4 games per week, winning 55% of the games. At $20 a game and 80 games for the season winning 55% and factoring in juice, you've made yourself a whopping $72. Which most people are not going to have the patience for.

Bingo... the key is discipline and having the cash to make it worth it. Change your scenario above to $500/game and you now it's worth the time most likely. But depending on your situation also puts you at financial risk if you hit a skid.

 

[Big Old Booger]

A&M is going to take the air out of the ball, FWIW.

They will attempt to do that for sure but if we can get an early lead and keep them on their toes they will eventually capitulate because they have to.

 

[OUSKINS]

after 7 straight games where we failed to cover, we picked a good night to bust out!