Turnovers

[sybarite]

Compare men to women:
Men:
1. 8.3
2. 8.6
3. 8.7
====1. Women 9.1
4. 9.2----then all the way down to
81. 11.5
====2. Women 11.5

Eighty men's teams have fewer turnovers per game than the #2 women's team in turnovers?

Let's go down to the #7 women's team in turnovers, Stanford, which has 12.1 turnovers per game. That would tie Stanford women with the #133 men's team.

The #50 women's team has the same turnover rate as the #295 men's team.

 

[badger]

It might be best to let the turnover thing go. As already noted, it isn't improving and likely will not.

But, there's also some practicality in not worrying about it too much: You don't want the players playing in fear of turnovers, or they'll hesitate rather than make plays. Remember the men's team under the last years of Capel? The players wouldn't stop passing, because they just didn't want to be the ones making the shot. So frustrating to watch

 

[gosooner2]

Well since we have 3 seniors and a junior who have played probably 80 or 90 games and still do the same thing it obviously is not a priority.

 

[sdcloud9]

The interesting stat would be how many turnovers are live ball turnovers that not only take away a shot opportunity but lead to easy baskets for the opposition.

 

[SoonerSpock]

Your logic is flawed, but the end result is about the same. We lose those opportunities, but it doesn't give our opponent more opportunities.
If we reduce our turnovers by 4 a game, we would theoretically score about 3.6 more points a game (or slightly higher since a 3 ptr is a possibility).

To know how to adjust our opponents numbers, we would need to know what percentage of turnovers caused transition points for our opponent. That's a lot harder to figure out.

Turnovers that stop play, don't give our opponents any advantage. It's just takes away an opportunity for us to score. For turnovers that don't stop play, if we don't allow a fast break and the opponent has to setup their half-court offense, those also don't affect our opponents score. If they score in transition, that will give them an advantage above having to run their half-court offense.

Yours is the flawed logic. Given both teams have 20 possessions and thus 20 scoring opportunities if team A turns the ball over 5 times that reduces their scoring opportunities to 15. Likewise team B gains 5 incremental possessions and their scoring opportunities increase to 25.

If both teams FG% is 50% and there are no 3 point makes or fouls called each team would score 20 points with no turnovers. With turnovers team B scores 25 points and team A 15 points. To score 10 points when shooting 50% would take 10 possessions not 5 to create the differential.

 

[sybarite]

Turnovers are an obsession, but get over it. They aren't the only statistic, nor are they the best indicator of success. I have made the point quite clearly that the success of a team is more correlated with Field Goal Percentage, something that is ignored year after year as the mantra about turnovers goes aimlessly through its annual journey. Coaches go by facts, what statistics reveal. If they didn't think statistics were important, they wouldn't keep them. There wouldn't even be a stat sheet.

Turnovers are important, but much less important to the success of a team than other things. If you want facts, OU is positive in the turnover column this year. Tennessee (#221) and Texas (#293) are fair teams, and they are actually in the negative.

It hurts when a lack of concentration leads to a turnover, and it would be nice if we recognized that the guy in the first row is not a member of the team. We don't need to throw it to him until after the game is over. It would be nice if we recognized that a length-of-the-floor crosscourt pass worked in highschool, but not in college.

But, some of these turnovers result from trying to get a better shot. People, if they are playing well, tend to move. Sometimes, you miss them when they move, which is better than throwing it to a stationary target who is covered and hoping that it gets through. But, you do need to pass and move, and both good and bad things happen when you try to do something.

If we just stood out front and passed the ball around the perimeter, we probably wouldn't have a lot of turnovers. Some teams do that. But, you had better be hitting your three-points shots, because that''s all you are getting.

Get over your obsession. A lot of good teams turn the ball over. It's not a good idea. But, unless you really have a bad night, they aren't what is costing you the game. It is more likely your lack of effort at getting a good shot or on the boards. It is more likely the fact that your decisions aren't good, or that you chose to watch a game rather than to get involved in the first ten minutes. I'm more likely to get irritated when I see a really bad shot go up with nobody trying to get the rebound. They don't call that a turnover. It has the same effect. If you shoot well and work on the boards as well as hustle for those loose balls, it helps to overcome a turnover or two. Remember, we are in the positive.

 

[gosooner2]

OU leads the Big 12 in field goal percentage? 6th in turnovers per game? Are we in first place or 6th place?

 

[sybarite]

It snowed in Atlanta last night. These and other relevant facts may affect the game. Now, try to take all statistics into play---or none.

 

[AustinTXSooner]

Yours is the flawed logic. Given both teams have 20 possessions and thus 20 scoring opportunities if team A turns the ball over 5 times that reduces their scoring opportunities to 15. Likewise team B gains 5 incremental possessions and their scoring opportunities increase to 25.

So because of 5 turnovers, we get 15 scoring opportunities and our opponent gets 25? How exactly?

They get the same 15 scoring opportunities that we do, plus the 5 turnovers where we just gave them the ball. That's 20 scoring opportunities. How do they get the ball the other 5 times?

 

[gosooner2]

It snowed in Atlanta last night. These and other relevant facts may affect the game. Now, try to take all statistics into play---or none.

Interesting observation!

 

[SoonerSpock]

Its quite simple when you have 5 turnovers you lose 5 scoring opportunities. When they get 5 turnovers they gain 5 additional scoring opportunities. It is the lost 5 scoring opportunities that must be factored in the analysis. If you are converting FGs at 50% then in effect you are scoring 1 point on each FG opportunity. Lose 10 scoring opportunities and that is 5 points you did not score.

The 5 points doesn't go on the scoreboard but it would have, on average, if you had not turned the ball over. You have to factor in the opportunity loss of the turnover to see its true impact even though it is not reflected on the scoreboard.

 

[SoonerinNC]

We can rationalize all we want but we have too many turnovers. The impossible passes into heavy traffic, the bounce passes to Nicole, the drives into heavy traffic.

A team that plays uptempo will have more turnovers so we should probably have more than the average team. Also Sherri challenges her teams to take risks and it results into some brilliant plays but also in more turnovers.

I think at times we are too much a one on one team. We usually don't drive and dish very well (Carter does this pretty well) and don't get a lot of good behind the arc shots by driving and kicking off. Too often when we start to penetrate it is a going all the way thing no matter how impossible the resulting shot happens to be.

We are also not that great at moving without the ball and screening to get players open. We do a pretty good job of ball screening but not away fromt the ball.

We do a pretty good job of driving the baseline and hitting opposite corner.

 

[SoonerNorm]

Its quite simple when you have 5 turnovers you lose 5 scoring opportunities. When they get 5 turnovers they gain 5 additional scoring opportunities. It is the lost 5 scoring opportunities that must be factored in the analysis. If you are converting FGs at 50% then in effect you are scoring 1 point on each FG opportunity. Lose 10 scoring opportunities and that is 5 points you did not score.

The 5 points doesn't go on the scoreboard but it would have, on average, if you had not turned the ball over. You have to factor in the opportunity loss of the turnover to see its true impact even though it is not reflected on the scoreboard.

Exactly, Stoops talks about that a lot.

 

[sybarite]

Exactly, Stoops talks about that a lot.

But, Stoops coaches a game in which you are allowed to travel. His game isn't relevant to the discussion.

 

[sybarite]

We can rationalize all we want but we have too many turnovers. The impossible passes into heavy traffic, the bounce passes to Nicole, the drives into heavy traffic.

A team that plays uptempo will have more turnovers so we should probably have more than the average team. Also Sherri challenges her teams to take risks and it results into some brilliant plays but also in more turnovers.

I think at times we are too much a one on one team. We usually don't drive and dish very well (Carter does this pretty well) and don't get a lot of good behind the arc shots by driving and kicking off. Too often when we start to penetrate it is a going all the way thing no matter how impossible the resulting shot happens to be.

We are also not that great at moving without the ball and screening to get players open. We do a pretty good job of ball screening but not away fromt the ball.

We do a pretty good job of driving the baseline and hitting opposite corner.

NC, let me try to make a point that is lost on some. Turnovers may be a problem, but if you are overly concerned with turnovers, you are missing the point. Let's state a bunch of proverbs so that we can get a picture.

Turnovers lose games
Lack of rebounding loses games.
Lack of hitting shots loses games.
Lack of hustle loses games.
Missing free throws loses games.
Inexperienced decisions loses games.

How many can you name? Which is the most important?

When you are faced with unknowns and decisions, the best thing to do is to try to get a grasp of probabilities of various actions having an effect. Coaches do that. They concentrate their efforts on what is most likely to improve their results. Those who don't end up as announcers, highschool coaches, or message board experts.

 

[soonerstar]

Why take a cheap shot at high school coaches and announcers to try to make a point?

 

[SoonerNorm]

But, Stoops coaches a game in which you are allowed to travel. His game isn't relevant to the discussion.

It doesn't matter if it's football or basketball. A turnover is a turnover. Both of which reduces scoring opportunities for the offense while increasing them for the defense. That makes it very relevant.

 

[sybarite]

Good, we'll only run the victory formation. We just won't get to that point.

 

[AustinTXSooner]

Its quite simple when you have 5 turnovers you lose 5 scoring opportunities. When they get 5 turnovers they gain 5 additional scoring opportunities. It is the lost 5 scoring opportunities that must be factored in the analysis. If you are converting FGs at 50% then in effect you are scoring 1 point on each FG opportunity. Lose 10 scoring opportunities and that is 5 points you did not score.

The 5 points doesn't go on the scoreboard but it would have, on average, if you had not turned the ball over. You have to factor in the opportunity loss of the turnover to see its true impact even though it is not reflected on the scoreboard.

I'm with you on everything except that they gain 5 additional scoring opportunities. Yes, we lose 5 scoring opportunities and that hurts us. But the other team doesn't also gain 5 scoring opportunities.

Put another way. In each game, with rare exceptions, both teams either have the same number of possessions, or one team has one more possession than the other. Even if I have 10 turnovers, we still have the same number of possessions. I've just lost the opportunity to score in 10 of mine.

 

[AustinTXSooner]

And how do you explain one team having 10-15 and sometimes 20 more FG attempts when the turnover differential never approaches that number?

Offensive rebounds, missed shots when fouled, probably some other things as well.