OU-Vanderbilt Four Factors

PhilipVU94 said:
Thanks. I'm not good at all scouting from the "eye test" so all I can do is draw on Pomeroy or Torvik to help me understand what I'm seeing. You could just as easily develop a counternarrative like this: OU is good at not turning over the ball so that negates pretty much all of VU's defense. Since OU takes care of the ball, they can take advantage of their eFG%. Vanderbilt isn't great at rebounding, probably not good enough to punish OU's glaring weakness.

See why matchups are tricky? :)
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The big question seems to be is EFFORT…. how are y’all on EFFORT… we seem to be coming up short on that…🤣
 
I'm looking for Jeremiah to have a bounce back game against The Commodores. The matchup is better for him than it was against The Aggies. Of course, after his last game, there's nowhere to go but up!
 
It's an interesting question to what extent this game is really a "must win" for Oklahoma. Bart Torvik's model has OU at 81% to make the NCAA with a win and 68% with a loss . However, there are a couple of caveats.

First is the assumption of independent events. If your team has good resilience and morale in the face of a loss, then maybe this assumption is highly realistic. If your coach is on the verge of "losing the locker room," then future results could be extremely highly correlated.

Second is whether you trust Torvik's model here, which is really two models: both the main efficiency-and-win-probability model and his NCAA committee decision model. This is huge. Torvik has 19-12 (6-12) as your current most likely and median record. If the committee follows its stated principles, that should put you on the right side of the bubble. However, it would be an edge case because surely there's never been such a serious bubble contender with an 0.333 conference record. The MCBB media is almost certain to howl about the SEC regardless, but 6-12 might be a heavy lift for the committee even though it shouldn't matter.

(Incidentally, Vanderbilt is 90% with a win and 80% with a loss.)

So do you trust Moser to hold the team's morale together regardless of the outcome? and do you trust the committee? If "yes" or at least "kinda" to both, then OU could lose and still be in decent NCAA shape.
 
PhilipVU94 said:
It's an interesting question to what extent this game is really a "must win" for Oklahoma. Bart Torvik's model has OU at 81% to make the NCAA with a win and 68% with a loss . However, there are a couple of caveats.

First is the assumption of independent events. If your team has good resilience and morale in the face of a loss, then maybe this assumption is highly realistic. If your coach is on the verge of "losing the locker room," then future results could be extremely highly correlated.

Second is whether you trust Torvik's model here, which is really two models: both the main efficiency-and-win-probability model and his NCAA committee decision model. This is huge. Torvik has 19-12 (6-12) as your current most likely and median record. If the committee follows its stated principles, that should put you on the right side of the bubble. However, it would be an edge case because surely there's never been such a serious bubble contender with an 0.333 conference record. The MCBB media is almost certain to howl about the SEC regardless, but 6-12 might be a heavy lift for the committee even though it shouldn't matter.

(Incidentally, Vanderbilt is 90% with a win and 80% with a loss.)

So do you trust Moser to hold the team's morale together regardless of the outcome? and do you trust the committee? If "yes" or at least "kinda" to both, then OU could lose and still be in decent NCAA shape.
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I think the biggest issue is that the toughest part of the schedule is yet to come. Alabama is the only one of the top SEC teams we have faced. Georgia, S. Carolina, Arkansas, and Texas are all unranked, and A&M wasn't close to full strength the first time we played them. So four of seven against unranked teams, and one against a diminished team. Things really ramp up from here -- LSU and Texas are the only unranked foes in the final 11 games, and Moser couldn't beat Texas if you spotted him 15 points and let Top Dawg stand on top of the basket Texas was shooting at.

Tomorrow is one of the only games left where we will be favored. Lose that, with a certain loss to Auburn to follow, and we are 2-7 with a home game against Tennessee next -- one where will be a dog. Even if the team doesn't fall apart/quit on Moser, we will be hard pressed to beat the elite teams in the league. I think the gag jobs against A&M and Texas used up our margin for error. We have already lost two games as home favorites. I just don't think we can lose any more and reasonably expect to even be in the mix on March 16.
 
Yeah, the part that gets counterintuitive (for both our teams) is having a bunch of games where you're/we're underdogs but not prohibitive underdogs. Y'all have a few games in the 40s-percent and a few more in the 20s and 30s. Every team has hot and cold nights so it's reasonable to think you'll usually win one or two of those.

Subject to the assumption of independent probabilities, though.
 
PhilipVU94 said:
Yeah, the part that gets counterintuitive (for both our teams) is having a bunch of games where you're/we're underdogs but not prohibitive underdogs. Y'all have a few games in the 40s-percent and a few more in the 20s and 30s. Every team has hot and cold nights so it's reasonable to think you'll usually win one or two of those.

Subject to the assumption of independent probabilities, though.
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Right, plus the chance that you bag one of the home games where you are only given about a 10-20 percent chance, e.g., us against Tennessee.
 
OU will not make the tournament if they lose this game. Hell, the schedule is so tough they may not make it if they heat Vandy by 20
 
A more detailed VU-centric preview from my one of my message board idols:

Oklahoma - NEW VandyMania.com

vandymania.com vandymania.com

(There are more active VU forums but they are all paywalled btw.)

As I mentioned on that thread, I suspect his assessment of OU's non-conf schedule is based on some weird KP numbers. On the face it's clearly much tougher than Vanderbilt's and Torvik agrees.
 
TINY said:
@PhilipVU94 thanks for the good conversation. You should hang out here more often. This is a great board for basketball talk.

Your program is on the rise. Got a good coach. It’s almost impossible to win on the road in this conference.
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Absolutely hang around. Vanderbilt will have a good shot to make the tournament. Vanderbilt being good is awesome for college basketball.
 
Yes, please hang around the board. Always great to see smart analysis and to get an intelligent outsider’s perspective on our team. I think the second half today was a total outlier as far as how you guys played. You guys have a gauntlet coming up but if you can survive that, things get a bit easier the final three games. Good luck the rest of the way.
 
Thanks y'all. I kinda want to go hide in the corner for a while, especially with our team going to Florida in three days, but I won't be a stranger. Talking hoops with SEC fans who care (especially non-Kentucky ones) is too much fun to pass up. Good luck the rest of the way. Congrats.
 
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