#4 seed in the latest bracketology

[stormspencer]

a #4 seed in the West region in Lunardi's latest bracketology projection. That wouldn't be a bad bracket at all.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

 

[SoonerBounce13]

a #4 seed in the West region in Lunardi's latest bracketology projection. That wouldn't be a bad bracket at all.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

i;d take it!

 

[DenverSooner]

tough draws for OSU and WVU in that bracket. I think OSU deserves a better seed than Texas. They swept them and are higher in the conference. If nothing else, make Texas play Kentucky in the second round.

 

[dahldennsull]

pretty nice seeing 7 big 12 teams in out of 10.

 

[oSuJeff97]

tough draws for OSU and WVU in that bracket. I think OSU deserves a better seed than Texas. They swept them and are higher in the conference.

Yeah he's oddly over-seeding Texas and under-seeding OSU.

OSU has a better profile than Texas in every possible way. Better record, higher RPI, more wins against top 25 and top 50.

Texas' profile is actually pretty shaky. They have zero wins against the the RPI top 25 and only two against the top 50. Couple that with a losing conference record and they are squarely on the bubble... not safely in as an 8.

I think Jerry Palm has OSU (6) and Texas (11) seeded properly.

 

[DapperDan]

Yeah he's oddly over-seeding Texas and under-seeding OSU.

OSU has a better profile than Texas in every possible way. Better record, higher RPI, more wins against top 25 and top 50.

Texas' profile is actually pretty shaky. They have zero wins against the the RPI top 25 and only two against the top 50. Couple that with a losing conference record and they are squarely on the bubble... not safely in as an 8.

I think Jerry Palm has OSU (6) and Texas (11) seeded properly.

Joe is going off of more how things will shake out, vs how they look right now. A case can be made that UT is more likely to finish strong than osu is. Do I think that'll be the case? No, I think osu probably finishes above UT, but UT has the talent and pre season expectations to make a late season run, much like that of osu last season. Who knows?

 

[oSuJeff97]

Joe is going off of more how things will shake out, vs how they look right now. A case can be made that UT is more likely to finish strong than osu is. Do I think that'll be the case? No, I think osu probably finishes above UT, but UT has the talent and pre season expectations to make a late season run, much like that of osu last season. Who knows?

Are you sure about that?

I thought pretty much all of the bracket projections were always based on "if the selection committee were today..."

It seems like it would be pretty much impossible to try and project how some 40-50 teams' games will play out over a 3-5 week period, unless you were just using something like KenPom to sim the season. I kind of doubt he's doing that.

 

[stormspencer]

Yeah he's oddly over-seeding Texas and under-seeding OSU.

OSU has a better profile than Texas in every possible way. Better record, higher RPI, more wins against top 25 and top 50.

Texas' profile is actually pretty shaky. They have zero wins against the the RPI top 25 and only two against the top 50. Couple that with a losing conference record and they are squarely on the bubble... not safely in as an 8.

I think Jerry Palm has OSU (6) and Texas (11) seeded properly.

This is spot on. Texas is on the verge of being one of the "last four in". Their only saving grace is that they don't have anything close to a bad loss....their worst loss is to #45 Stanford. Most teams on the bubble have several bad losses (losses to teams with 100+RPI). They will have chances to improve and get some quality wins down the stretch, but the way that they've been playing of late wouldn't give me much hope if I were a Texas fan. They probably would slide into the tournament if they finished 8-10....but there would be some anxious moments for them on Selection Sunday.

 

[stormspencer]

Joe is going off of more how things will shake out, vs how they look right now. A case can be made that UT is more likely to finish strong than osu is. Do I think that'll be the case? No, I think osu probably finishes above UT, but UT has the talent and pre season expectations to make a late season run, much like that of osu last season. Who knows?

This is incorrect. Lunardi's bracket is not a projection based upon the end of the season (or how he thinks that teams will end up). His bracket is based upon a current snapshot (if the field was selected today).

There are other bracketologists out there who provide a bracket projection based upon expected future results....like this guy:
http://basketballpredictions.blogspot.com/

 

[oSuJeff97]

This is spot on. Texas is on the verge of being one of the "last four in". Their only saving grace is that they don't have anything close to a bad loss....their worst loss is to #45 Stanford. Most teams on the bubble have several bad losses (losses to teams with 100+RPI). They will have chances to improve and get some quality wins down the stretch, but the way that they've been playing of late wouldn't give me much hope if I were a Texas fan. They probably would slide into the tournament if they finished 8-10....but there would be some anxious moments for them on Selection Sunday.

Yeah the lowest hanging fruits for Texas are their home games with Iowa State and Baylor. They really need to win one, if not both, of those games to get themselves off the bubble.

(And obviously they can't go dropping one of their other home games vs. Tech or K-State)

 

[DenverSooner]

Joe is going off of more how things will shake out, vs how they look right now. A case can be made that UT is more likely to finish strong than osu is. Do I think that'll be the case? No, I think osu probably finishes above UT, but UT has the talent and pre season expectations to make a late season run, much like that of osu last season. Who knows?

Texas will likely beat TCU and Tech at home. Then they play at OU and ISU as home. I think they lose both game. Then they go to both WVU and KU. Probably two more losses. Then they get Baylor and KSU at home. Lets say they split. If I am right that is 5 more losses for Texas and puts them at 7-11 in the conference and 18-13 on the season. That is not an 8 seed.

When I say this, I get that Texas has the front court to beat just about anybody but I would rather have a weak front court and strong backcourt.

 

[Kewllane]

Doesn't the committee try to avoid rematches as best as they can? If so, that would make sense on why OSU and Texas are not flipped. Don't want a rematch from in the third (second) round.