5-5
- Thread starter dksooner
- Start date
We will likely lose our next two and be 5-5 in conference
WTSooner
Well-known member
- Joined
- Feb 26, 2011
- Messages
- 12,026
- Reaction score
- 1,141
10 scares me if we finish in 6th place, which with ISU and OSU both winning yesterday, becomes more of a possibility. I agree though, if we finish in 5th place alone, 11 definitely gets us in, and 10 probably does. We really need to find a way to finish 5th or better.
If we can take K-State down to the wire and beat Baylor on the road, we're going to win a lot of the remaining games in conference play. Looking at our last 8 games, they are all winnable games. I think we would be favored to win most of them, except @OSU. It won't be easy, but I think we can win 6 games in that stretch, and it's not inconceivable that we could beat Iowa State or Kansas. But, we have to play much better offensively than we did against K-State. Defensively though we have been great.
WTSooner
Well-known member
- Joined
- Feb 26, 2011
- Messages
- 12,026
- Reaction score
- 1,141
We're just really going to have to take care of business in the games we should win. That means winning all of the following:
vs TCU
@ TT
vs WVU
@ TCU
Winning those 4 will give us 9 conference wins. Then we just need to steal 1-2 others out of this group:
@ ISU
vs KU
@ OSU
vs Baylor
@ UT
vs ISU
I think we'll get 1 or 2 wins out of that second group. But that makes it that much more important to take care of business in those first 4 games, b/c if we don't, we have to steal another game from the second group of games. Getting 1-2 wins is doable. Getting 3-4, should we need to? I don't think that would happen, especially if we're playing bad enough to lose one of those games from the first set.
While @ UT looks winnable, they will have Kabongo(sp) back by then. ISU doesn't defend well, but they do have the 2nd most efficient offense in the Big 12, to date. We beat Baylor on the road, but I'm not sure we can duplicate that shooting performance again.
We have some work to do, but we pretty much control out own destiny. If we can't take care of business above, we don't deserve to go Dancing. Simple as that.
vs TCU
@ TT
vs WVU
@ TCU
Winning those 4 will give us 9 conference wins. Then we just need to steal 1-2 others out of this group:
@ ISU
vs KU
@ OSU
vs Baylor
@ UT
vs ISU
I think we'll get 1 or 2 wins out of that second group. But that makes it that much more important to take care of business in those first 4 games, b/c if we don't, we have to steal another game from the second group of games. Getting 1-2 wins is doable. Getting 3-4, should we need to? I don't think that would happen, especially if we're playing bad enough to lose one of those games from the first set.
While @ UT looks winnable, they will have Kabongo(sp) back by then. ISU doesn't defend well, but they do have the 2nd most efficient offense in the Big 12, to date. We beat Baylor on the road, but I'm not sure we can duplicate that shooting performance again.
We have some work to do, but we pretty much control out own destiny. If we can't take care of business above, we don't deserve to go Dancing. Simple as that.
We just need to not lose to Texas, WV, TCU, and Tech and try to squeak out an upset or 2.
as long as we don't get a bad loss, Beating OSU and Baylor should keep us in the tournament.
ByronHoustonsSweatyPalms
Member
- Joined
- Dec 6, 2008
- Messages
- 909
- Reaction score
- 0
Big 12 will get 5 teams. One of the existing 4 teams at 5-3 will be left out. I personally think it will be ISU, but it's going to be a dog fight.
Well I think the good thing is we will have to beat one or two of those teams to get there, so we'd be more likely to finish ahead of them.
jmizzy4ou
Well-known member
- Joined
- Nov 6, 2008
- Messages
- 3,704
- Reaction score
- 732
Good breakdown. I believe we can win at UT, and ISU at home. We should be very confident with Baylor in our place, and surely we will have one of those lights out games on the road.....
As WT said, we MUST handle the 1st group of games he listed, in order to put ourselves in the best position. What ISU and os-who do the rest of the way will be big also, IMO......
I think 12 is the magic number for sure after tonight.
WTSooner
Well-known member
- Joined
- Feb 26, 2011
- Messages
- 12,026
- Reaction score
- 1,141
Huh?
Losing a road game at ISU doesn't really make it anymore difficult for us. ISU is probably going to finish in the top 4 in the conference.
10 or 11 wins is going to get us in.
thebigabd
Well-known member
- Joined
- Oct 31, 2008
- Messages
- 13,496
- Reaction score
- 77
Texas, TCU, WVU, and Tech are so awful this year that the wins over them are kind of irrelevant. The Baylor win was big, the K-State loss hurt, the ISU loss on the road was expected.
They just need to go out and get another big win.
They just need to go out and get another big win.
Big Old Booger
Active member
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2008
- Messages
- 6,520
- Reaction score
- 1
Been missing your analysis ABD. Good to see you back. :woot
And you're still wrong.
I don't think 10 gets it done, 11 does it if we win 2 big 12 tournament games.
stormspencer
OklahomaHoops 2025 Bracket Champion
- Joined
- Nov 26, 2008
- Messages
- 6,355
- Reaction score
- 1,413
So you're saying this team needs to win 22 games to make the tournament? Are you trying to bait everyone with that?
If our RPI is around 30 and we win 10 games in conference (while avoiding any "bad" losses to tech, tcu etc), we are almost assuredly in the tourney....as probably a 10/11 seed.
0-2 against KU
7-1 against WVU, UT, TTU, TCU
4-4 against OSU, ISU, KSU, Baylor
11-7, and an NCAA bid
We're still on track to do this. We haven't lost our game to a bottom feeder yet and we still have Kansas at home, so there's a chance to pick up a win in those two categories. We were swept by KSU but picked up a win at Baylor, so that's a wash. We've had 2 home games and 3 road games against the tier below KU, and we're 2-3.
I wasn't encouraged by the way we played either of the last two games, but I thought 11-7 was fairly optimistic before the season, and 5-4 puts us right on track (as does 5-5 after KU, should we lose). When it looked the the conference was performing below expectations, 12-6 became my new rosy scenario, and that doesn't look likely anymore.
7-1 against WVU, UT, TTU, TCU
4-4 against OSU, ISU, KSU, Baylor
11-7, and an NCAA bid
We're still on track to do this. We haven't lost our game to a bottom feeder yet and we still have Kansas at home, so there's a chance to pick up a win in those two categories. We were swept by KSU but picked up a win at Baylor, so that's a wash. We've had 2 home games and 3 road games against the tier below KU, and we're 2-3.
I wasn't encouraged by the way we played either of the last two games, but I thought 11-7 was fairly optimistic before the season, and 5-4 puts us right on track (as does 5-5 after KU, should we lose). When it looked the the conference was performing below expectations, 12-6 became my new rosy scenario, and that doesn't look likely anymore.
Similar threads
