No disagreement with you about Cox's confidence. You will note I indicated that in suggesting there were probably other reasons beyond simply winning a National Title at play in her mind.
Many kids grow up as fans of a team - with dislike toward their strongest opponents. An example is Sterling Shepherd. He was going to OU if offered. He was not going to bypass us for Texas, Baylor, Notre Dame, Alabama, etc. Lots of kids grow up like that. Trying to tie the recruiting of out of state kids simply to how hard you recruit them is naïve. Of course even within a state allegiances exist. Kids who grow up as OSU fans may "hate" OU and never agree to play there - and vice versa. Same in Texas between the various schools. Emotional ties in young people are very firm in may cases - and have an impact in recruiting.