Beating a team 3 times

[Laxtothemax12]

It's really hard. Is anyone else a little worried (especially with our recent tournament history)? We swept Baylor last year, then lost in tournament, swept OSU with Blake and then lost in Kansas City. Need to come out with some fire for sure since OSU is going to be playing for their tournament hopes.

 

[opsooner]

I'd be a little worried no matter who we were playing. I like this matchup about as much as any but if OSU is hot and we are cold then, yes, they could pull the upset.

 

[BoomSoon]

This is not meant as simply smack against Little Brother. Reality is playing them is our best matchup of the options. They can beat us (anyone in the league can - and we can beat anyone) but style wise, that's our best first round draw.

 

[JBaker]

This is not meant as simply smack against Little Brother. Reality is playing them is our best matchup of the options. They can beat us (anyone in the league can - and we can beat anyone) but style wise, that's our best first round draw.

Yep. I'd much rather being playing them than Texas, who we also swept.
At no point in either of our games against OSU did I think there was a chance we might not win.

And I believe the 3 times in a year thing is overblown. It's hard to do because it's rare you play a team 3 times in a year.

 

[coolm]

I am very worried about playing them again.

 

[stormspencer]

Yep. I'd much rather being playing them than Texas, who we also swept.
At no point in either of our games against OSU did I think there was a chance we might not win.

And I believe the 3 times in a year thing is overblown. It's hard to do because it's rare you play a team 3 times in a year.

It's not only overblown...it's simply not the case. I posted something earlier today and I will paste it here.

This mantra is constantly repeated, but the statistics/articles I have read prove that statement is pretty much a myth. I don't have any hard metrics on that assumption, but after some quick research, virtually every article written (usually around a local conference or conference tournament) dispels that myth. People cite Nova over G'Town in 85 or OU failing to beat KU in the '88 final, but those cases of a team failing to beat a team for a 3rd time in a season seem to be the exception rather than the norm.

This idea of "beating a team 3 times in a season" persists to give sports fans (already a pessimistic bunch) another reason to be pessimistic. And it has happened to OU several times recently (last year to Baylor and in Blake Griffin's senior season to osu) so that is clearly on our mind.

But in most cases, if a team has demonstrated the ability to beat a team twice already AND is a better team, then the probability is high that they will beat them again.

 

[chuckb]

It's absolutely a myth. We don't have to beat them 3 times in a row. We already have 2 in the bank. We just have to beat them once.

The idea that they have an advantage since we've already beaten them once is a form of the gambler's fallacy -- that they're due. There's nothing to it. OSU may win because they probably have a 30% or so chance to win and sometimes the 30% wins, but it's not because "they're due."

 

[StatGeek]

Since 2000 OU has been involved in 9 games where a team has had a chance to beat its opponent 3 times in one season. Here are the results:

2001 OU was 3-0 vs Texas
2002 OU was 3-0 vs Texas
2003 OU was 3-0 vs Texas Tech
2004 Texas was 3-0 vs OU
2008 Texas was 3-0 vs OU
2009 OU failed to beat OSU a third time, losing to OSU in the conference tourney.
2011 Texas was 3-0 vs OU
2013 OU was 3-0 vs West Virginia (played a non conference game early in the season).
2014 OU failed to beat Baylor a third time, losing to Baylor in the Big XII tourney.

So overall OU is 4-2 since 2000 when facing a team it has already beaten twice.

Overall teams are 7-2 since 2000 when facing a team it has already beaten twice.

 

[209sooner]

It's really hard. Is anyone else a little worried (especially with our recent tournament history)? We swept Baylor last year, then lost in tournament, swept OSU with Blake and then lost in Kansas City. Need to come out with some fire for sure since OSU is going to be playing for their tournament hopes.

The tournament was in OKC in 2009. That was a one point game with a controversial ending.

 

[opsooner]

Yep. I'd much rather being playing them than Texas, who we also swept.
At no point in either of our games against OSU did I think there was a chance we might not win.

And I believe the 3 times in a year thing is overblown. It's hard to do because it's rare you play a team 3 times in a year.

I need to quiz you before I return to Vegas. I never ruled us out of the game in Stoolwater but at halftime I could see a chance of losing.

 

[JBaker]

I need to quiz you before I return to Vegas. I never ruled us out of the game in Stoolwater but at halftime I could see a chance of losing.

If you dig back in my post history, you can probably find a post I made in one of the halftime meltdown threads that game where I said, "OU will come back and win this game by 7 or 8."

Edit: Actually, here's the thread: http://ouhoops.com/forum/showthread.php?p=468493

Blind squirrel, every once in a while, yadda yadda..

 

[NMSooner'80]

It's always dangerous to play OSU when they have any kind of talent, because any OU game is their "holy war."

I remember when they were winning 8-9 games a year yet still beat OU in Stillwater a couple of times in the mid-80's.

 

[KBaden145]

It's absolutely a myth. We don't have to beat them 3 times in a row. We already have 2 in the bank. We just have to beat them once.



The idea that they have an advantage since we've already beaten them once is a form of the gambler's fallacy -- that they're due. There's nothing to it. OSU may win because they probably have a 30% or so chance to win and sometimes the 30% wins, but it's not because "they're due."

I fall on this side of things. Easily the best possible match-up we could have gotten and arguably the best match-up we have against any Big 12 team. They simply DO NOT match-up well with us at all and everyone in their program knows it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk