***Big 12 Countdown: Top 25 Players to Watch***

[Henzo]

Basketball season remains a few months away, but there are clearly high expectations of the talent on display in the Big 12 when the 2009-10 season tips off in November. From the top of the league to the bottom of the league there will be plenty of playmakers present on the court night in and night out.

To satiate some of the hoops thirst, OUHoops.com put together a list taking an in-depth look at the widespread talent that will help to make up the 2009-10 Big 12 season. Not only are there an abundance of impact players, it could be the most talented group of players from the top of the league to the bottom in conference history.

Link: OUHoops.com >>> Big 12 Countdown: Top 25 Players to Watch

 

[Sam]

Henzo you are amazing, great list. Thanks for all the work you do for this site.

On edit.

X Henry

Despite missing his first summer workouts at KU because of orthodontist appointments

Lol

 

[BigTime]

Agree with the talent part, Henzo. It is amazing how loaded the Big 12 is this year, and hopefully, the guys will live up to that potential. I think this has a chance to be the best top to bottom basketball season that this conference has ever seen.

 

[DSMok1]

Good writeup!

How do you do your projections? Eyeball, or is there a method to the madness?

 

[Henzo]

Good writeup!

How do you do your projections? Eyeball, or is there a method to the madness?

I know how much you love different methods and formulas to the madness, DSMok, and I hate to disappoint.. but the projections were done with my own deductive reasoning more than anything else. I felt some guys would have more opportunities, some had bad luck last year, some would take that next step, and some may not improve their stats as much as they otherwise would because the team surrounding them will be better.

I was hoping to see some other opinions.. I know not everyone agrees with my selections, whether it be the rankings or the projections. Who wants to pick 'em apart?

 

[BigTime]

Good writeup!

How do you do your projections? Eyeball, or is there a method to the madness?

DSMok

Why don't you use your stats methods to make stat projections on henzo's list, so we can compare the two?

 

[tomkar98]

DSMok

Why don't you use your stats methods to make stat projections on henzo's list, so we can compare the two?

Thats a great idea BT!

I hope this isn't asking too much of you, DSMok, is it?

 

[DSMok1]

DSMok

Why don't you use your stats methods to make stat projections on henzo's list, so we can compare the two?

I'd love to, but:

1) Coherent college basketball statistical projections are an unexplored frontier

2) Stats aren't easily available for many years

I've been working on learning the statistics theory behind projection systems (Bayesian inference, binomial distributions, etc.), and am close to having the theory figured out. However, basketball is an unusual case because of the "Distribution of Minutes" problem. It is much simpler to predict the rate stats for each player (reb/pos) than to estimate the minutes. And the rate stats are more difficult in basketball than, say, baseball or even football because each player's stats interact with the other players. Worse, every team's competition is a different level! It's quite the headache, honestly!

The other issue is that there are no free databases available for college basketball. I spidered last years' stats from ESPN, but my code doesn't work for previous years (I'll try to get that worked out...)--and previous years don't include data like the height, weight, and year of the player. DraftExpress has some great data, but again doesn't include the height, weight, or year of the player (or even position for earlier years).

Anyway, those are the issues. I don't know if I can conquer them this year. It could take a while, but my long-term objective is to create a coherent NCAA basketball projection system like, for instance, the ZIPS system for baseball.

 

[Oscar Uniform]

#11 | J.T. TILLER, MISSOURI

No, seriously. Who's #11?

 

[Cheno]

Great writeup! Thanks for doing that.
I'd have included TMG though!!!!!!