Current Events Thread

[steverocks35]

Some of you all should leave the financial/tax discussion to the professionals. A LOT of bad information posted here. It is VERY likely Trump did nothing illegal in terms of his taxes. It's also very likely they've already been audited. Most large companies and/or high income individuals pay a small amount of taxes. It's called smart tax planning. It's the reason investing in golf courses/clubs makes a lot of sense. They often lose money, but they generate cash and the land value rarely drops, and often increases. Perfect from a tax perspective.

And Trump's businesses not always operating in the black is no surprise. Most have known that for many years.

I'm pretty sure giving your kids millions of dollars in fake "consulting fees" and then writing off the amounts as "business expenditures" is illegal and so is violating the emoluments clause. Also, I want to know who is loaning money to this guy who is literally losing billions of dollars. A lot of these loans are coming due in 2022-2024 and he has no way to pay for them. Falsely inflating the value of your property to secure loans is also illegal in the form of fraud.

 

[sheepdogs1]

Some of you all should leave the financial/tax discussion to the professionals. A LOT of bad information posted here. It is VERY likely Trump did nothing illegal in terms of his taxes. It's also very likely they've already been audited. Most large companies and/or high income individuals pay a small amount of taxes. It's called smart tax planning. It's the reason investing in golf courses/clubs makes a lot of sense. They often lose money, but they generate cash and the land value rarely drops, and often increases. Perfect from a tax perspective.

And Trump's businesses not always operating in the black is no surprise. Most have known that for many years.

Agreed. People whine about how he owes large sums of money have little knowledge of how finance works as corporations in the same situation will just refinance the debt at a different rate and extend when the debt is due. This happens all the time and is routine.

 

[mict085]

[tweet]1310578757699350528[/tweet]

 

[steverocks35]

[tweet]1310578757699350528[/tweet]

Sure losses are normal, but billions in losses over 2 decades and being hundreds of millions in debt to investors foreign and domestic? Not so normal. Even if every single accounting gimmick is deemed legal, and they very well might be, it puts a big dent in his image as a successful businessman.

 

[sheepdogs1]

[tweet]1310578757699350528[/tweet]

Please let the gullible be gullible. How does one explain their gullibility unless you explain it as they are part of the lunatic fringe or they truly do not believe a word they utter and are "trolling away" Christopher Cross style.

 

[steverocks35]

https://www.justsecurity.org/72604/ten-quick-takeaways-from-the-new-york-times-bombshell-article-on-trumps-tax-returns/

This is an excellent article about the Trump tax returns. Trump seems to have had the same financial planner as MC Hammer.

 

[thebigabd]

The interesting thing as that Biden doesn't need all these states. If he only wins the ones he is up 3 or more points in he will be elected. If he wins all of them except Texas and Georgia it will be an epic landslide. Trump needs all of these states except Wisconsin and Michigan.

I ran some scenarios on the Electoral Map generator. Keep in mind some other states that aren't normally in play are in play. Joni Ernst is in deep **** in Iowa, and Trump has a 0.7 lead right now. It's dead even in Iowa. Texas is narrow. North carolina is narrow.

Scenario 1: This gives Biden all the solid blue states, and Trump all the solid red states. It assumes a BIDEN win in Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina. Ohio goes to Trump. That results in a 334-204 win for Biden.

Scenario 2: Same states as scenario 1, except Florida and North Carolina go to Trump. That results in a 290-248 win for Biden. That means Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio went to Trump. He still loses.

Scenario 3: Same states as scenario 2, except Arizona goes to Trump as well. That means Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, AND Arizona all go Trump. That results in a 279 to 259 win for Biden.

Scenario 4: Same states as scenario 3, only Wisconsin goes to Trump. That means Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Arizona, and Wisconsin go to Trump. That is a 269 to 269 tie.

In other words, Trump has to run the table in every close state. He can't lose anything. If Iowa flips, he's done. If he doesn't win any blue wall states, he can't win. If he loses Florida, he really has no chance. If Arizona goes for Biden, he is in deep trouble.

Odds are stacked against him. Of course, he can do it again, but it's very unlikely.

The most recent Marist College polls have Biden up 8 and 9 points in Michigan. It's probably back to not in play for Trump. It's not going red again. Biden is polling pretty good in Wisconsin as well. They are within margin of error in Pennsylvania, but Biden is up 5.5 there.

I think the "blue wall" of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Illinois is going to hold.

This is what I think is going to actually happen:

Most likely #1:

Most likely #2:

Most likely Trump win scenario... He has to get Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Arizona, and North Carolina. He is behind in every one of those states, but they are all close. He needs to run the table on the tossups.

 

[steverocks35]

I ran some scenarios on the Electoral Map generator. Keep in mind some other states that aren't normally in play are in play. Joni Ernst is in deep **** in Iowa, and Trump has a 0.7 lead right now. It's dead even in Iowa. Texas is narrow. North carolina is narrow.

Scenario 1: This gives Biden all the solid blue states, and Trump all the solid red states. It assumes a BIDEN win in Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina. Ohio goes to Trump. That results in a 334-204 win for Biden.

Scenario 2: Same states as scenario 1, except Florida and North Carolina go to Trump. That results in a 290-248 win for Biden. That means Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio went to Trump. He still loses.

Scenario 3: Same states as scenario 2, except Arizona goes to Trump as well. That means Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, AND Arizona all go Trump. That results in a 279 to 259 win for Biden.

Scenario 4: Same states as scenario 3, only Wisconsin goes to Trump. That means Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Arizona, and Wisconsin go to Trump. That is a 269 to 269 tie.

In other words, Trump has to run the table in every close state. He can't lose anything. If Iowa flips, he's done. If he doesn't win any blue wall states, he can't win. If he loses Florida, he really has no chance. If Arizona goes for Biden, he is in deep trouble.

Odds are stocked against him. Of course, he can do it again, but it's very unlikely.

The most recent Marist College polls have Trump up 8 and 9 points in Michigan. It's probably back to not in play for Trump. It's not going red again. Biden is polling pretty good in Wisconsin as well. They are within margin of error in Pennsylvania, but Biden is up 5.5 there.

I think the "blue wall" of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Illinois is going to hold.

This is what I think is going to actually happen:

Most likely #1:

Most likely #2:

Most likely Trump win scenario... He has to get Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Arizona, and North Carolina. He is behind in every one of those states, but they are all close. He needs to run the table on the tossups.

I think you meant to say that Biden is up 8-9 points in Michigan, but yeah these are very plausible scenarios. Trump has to draw an inside straight again to win. He can do it, obviously, and I'm not discounting his chance.

 

[thebigabd]

Pretty crazy stat....

At this time in 2016, 10,000 Americans had already voted. This year, over a million have already voted.

NBA, MLB, NFL, etc teams are hosting big voter registration drives in prep for more early voting... The Rockets and Texans had their event a few days ago.

Texas has added millions of new voters this year. 1/3rd of those new registered voters have come from Harris, Bexar, and Travis county. That is Austin, San Antonio, and Houston. Areas that tend to favor Democrats.

In Florida, news is that the voter registration edge is favoring Republicans.

 

[sheepdogs1]

At the top of the hour "consumer confidence index" report was released and it is the highest since March coming in at 101.8 while expectations were calling for 89.6.

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-cb...es-from-863-to-1018-in-september-202009291404

 

[SoonerBounce13]

I'm pretty sure giving your kids millions of dollars in fake "consulting fees" and then writing off the amounts as "business expenditures" is illegal and so is violating the emoluments clause. Also, I want to know who is loaning money to this guy who is literally losing billions of dollars. A lot of these loans are coming due in 2022-2024 and he has no way to pay for them. Falsely inflating the value of your property to secure loans is also illegal in the form of fraud.

lets stop acting like we know Trumps, or anyone elses, financial problems. You have no idea that he won't be able to pay those loans back.

Banks aren't dumb

 

[SoonerBounce13]

Even if every single accounting gimmick is deemed legal, and they very well might be, it puts a big dent in his image as a successful businessman.

no it doesn't

 

[steverocks35]

lets stop acting like we know Trumps, or anyone elses, financial problems. You have no idea that he won't be able to pay those loans back.

Banks aren't dumb

That's why they stopped lending to him years ago. Forbes has calculated that Trump is $1.1 billion in debt.

 

[SoonerBounce13]

That's why they stopped lending to him years ago. Forbes has calculated that Trump is $1.1 billion in debt.

companies are in debt all the time. Because they can borrow money at a lower rate and then invest it in assets that make more. That is how it works. Any successful business (im not saying Trump is successful) operates that way.

 

[WTSooner]

I'm pretty sure giving your kids millions of dollars in fake "consulting fees" and then writing off the amounts as "business expenditures" is illegal and so is violating the emoluments clause. Also, I want to know who is loaning money to this guy who is literally losing billions of dollars. A lot of these loans are coming due in 2022-2024 and he has no way to pay for them. Falsely inflating the value of your property to secure loans is also illegal in the form of fraud.

It's not illegal at all. You know his kids would have been taxed on those amounts, right? So where exactly is the tax avoidance?

Banks loan money to all kinds of companies and people. You know that loan is likely highly collateralized, right? You know it's SUPER common for businesses to have large loans coming due that typically get re-financed or extended, right? No way to pay? He could sell whatever is the collateral. Do you really think banks have a loan out on something that isn't worth more than the loan? Do most people have the cash on hand to pay off their mortgage? Do banks make a habit of loaning more than a property is worth?

How is he inflating the value of his property?

Out of your league here dude.

 

[thebigabd]

On top of demanding a drug test from Joe Biden.... low life scum Donald Trump is now demanding that Joe Biden be inspected for transmitters or other electronic devices. Trump thinks Democratic operatives will be telling him what to say during the debate.

This guy is just total scum.

 

[SoonerBounce13]

On top of demanding a drug test from Joe Biden.... low life scum Donald Trump is now demanding that Joe Biden be inspected for transmitters or other electronic devices. Trump thinks Democratic operatives will be telling him what to say during the debate.

This guy is just total scum.

would it really surprise you?

We already know democrats got help last time from the moderators

 

[mict085]

That's why they stopped lending to him years ago. Forbes has calculated that Trump is $1.1 billion in debt.

I disagree. The “debt” shows up when you have so many real estate deals.

[TWEET]1310906467600523268[/TWEET]

 

[sheepdogs1]

would it really surprise you?

We already know democrats got help last time from the moderators

Abd would rather play cards with card counters and or marked cards. Can you take him to the side and explain things to him. Secondly, you never know when Trump is serious or just pulling the gullible chain and libs illustrate this on a daily basis.

 

[thebigabd]

would it really surprise you?

We already know democrats got help last time from the moderators

This is classic bully behavior... nothing more, nothing less. He's trying to embarrass Biden, discredit him, etc in a juvenile way.

Both demands.... that he be drug tested and that he have his ears checked for electronics, are both meant to suggest that Biden is Bernie from "Weekend at Bernies".... Just a half-living carcass roaming around with no mental faculties left. He is telling people they will be injecting Biden with drugs to animate him and increase his senses. That's a lie. A nasty lie.

It's absurd and I can't believe anyone supports it.