Now we can have realistic expectations

[AdaSooner]

Let me know if this list isnt big enough and I am sure I can use the search tool to come up with more.

From this thread “Big 12 Predictions” started on 10-03-2012
http://ouhoops.com/forum/showthread.php?t=26535

OSUFan – has us 4th
TheGimper – has us 5th
Kbaden145 – has us 5th
BoulderSooner – has us 4th
DFWHoopster – Has us 4th
Geeoh – has us 5th
Indysooner – has us 5th
BigTime – has us 3rd



From this thread “Any new conference predictions after start of season” Posted on 11-26-2012
http://ouhoops.com/forum/showthread.php?t=27021

ArdmoreSooner – has us 5th
Bgrch1350 – has us 4th
Chaser728 – has us 5th
Sooner-Bred – has us 3rd
BigTime – has us 4th
Geeoh – has us 5th

Huuuumm! Two posters on your lists are fans of another school, and two others were listed twice. That narrows the number down to ten, out of how many members who come here on a fairly regular basis?

I'm playing with you, Lucky. I'm not saying there weren't a few posters who thought this team might have the goods to finish in the top half of the conference. Even I considered that as a possiblity, and I believe it could still happen if our players come together as one unit and start to make more shots. There are always a few here who tend to dream bigger than our players are capable of delivering every season. I'm sure I have been guilty of that more than anyone. Go to most any fan board you want to name and you'll find the same thing. It's human nature to overhype your favorite team. Eventually, though, reality rears its ugly head and we find out the truth.

What I'm saying is that it is much too early to throw in the towel on this team and declare the season a failure. We have the depth and the talent to have a good season. Top five finish good? The jury is still out on that one.

 

[suncoastsooner]

To me that is a VERY thin line.

I just think back to all the close losses we had last year, or the losses that ended up with bigger spreads (7-12) that OU lead at halftime. It wouldn't have taken much to get OU an extra 4-6 wins last year, IMO. I know not everybody shares that opinion, but I just feel like there were some winnable games that we lost.

We lost to Cincy by 1 point.
We lost @aTm in overtime.
We lost vs ISU in a game that was a 3 point game most of the last 3 minutes.
We lost vs Mizzou by 3.
Lost @UT in a game we lead by 4 at the half.
Lost vs KU in a game we lead at the half.

I really feel like any improvement at all, especially with a weaker Big 12, should have us on the bubble.

I agree with a lot of what you are saying here but I also recognize we have a little more difficult a schedule this season overall as well.

Cincy was missing four its five best players for our game and we still lost at home (keep that in mind).
Texas A&M was a bad team
ISU was a good match up and they had a poor shooting night.
UT was nothing special
KU is probably your best reference and as I recall they ended up winning by double digits.

I've said elsewhere I feel we have improved this season and that's going to be good for a couple more wins but I don't think it equates to the dramatic upturn that a lot of other fans seem to see.

 

[ArdmoreSooner]

For the record I'm standing by my 5th selection. I coached HS basketball for a number of years and can tell you don't judge one game. When I look at season so far I see three games on road that OU could have lost. One in Texas, ORU, and WVU. Those are games I think our squad lost last year. When I look at how many games last years team was in and lost down the stretch I see this team winning this year. At least some of them. Plus I don't think the league is a good as it was last year. That is my reason for saying 5th. To much youth in important spots to be too much higher.

I also expect M'Baye to continue to look better as the year goes on similar to Osby last year.

 

[suncoastsooner]

What I'm saying is that it is much too early to throw in the towel on this team and declare the season a failure. We have the depth and the talent to have a good season. Top five finish good? The jury is still out on that one.

I don't feel the season is a failure if we don't make it to the tourney. The team is showing improvement and we have a lot of young talent to cultivate and build on for the future. Kruger is doing a good job of building up the team. He didn't turn around UNLV or Florida in just two years, I don't see why our fans are expecting him to do so here at Oklahoma and this is probably a more difficult turn around than either of those programs at the time.

I think our fans need to temper some of their expectations.

 

[suncoastsooner]

For the record I'm standing by my 5th selection. I coached HS basketball for a number of years and can tell you don't judge one game. When I look at season so far I see three games on road that OU could have lost. One in Texas, ORU, and WVU. Those are games I think our squad lost last year. When I look at how many games last years team was in and lost down the stretch I see this team winning this year. At least some of them. Plus I don't think the league is a good as it was last year. That is my reason for saying 5th. To much youth in important spots to be too much higher.

I also expect M'Baye to continue to look better as the year goes on similar to Osby last year.

The Big 12 isn't as good at the top this season but I think it is deeper. Iowa State is better than it was last season, OSU is definitely much improved, WVU is a better ball club (even as young as they are) than aTm was last season. Really only Baylor, Kansas, and Texas are the only teams I see that are downgraded and two of them are still pretty salty basketball teams. Basically Oklahoma wasn't the only team to progress this season and I think many of our fans fail to recognize this.

 

[WTSooner]

The Big 12 isn't as good at the top this season but I think it is deeper. Iowa State is better than it was last season, OSU is definitely much improved, WVU is a better ball club (even as young as they are) than aTm was last season. Really only Baylor, Kansas, and Texas are the only teams I see that are downgraded and two of them are still pretty salty basketball teams. Basically Oklahoma wasn't the only team to progress this season and I think many of our fans fail to recognize this.

While I get your point, I don't think ISU is as good as last year. They won't win 12 Big 12 games (I don't think), nor do I think they will win a game in the NCAA tourney.

JMO.

 

[luckyc1423]

To me that is a VERY thin line.

I just think back to all the close losses we had last year, or the losses that ended up with bigger spreads (7-12) that OU lead at halftime. It wouldn't have taken much to get OU an extra 4-6 wins last year, IMO. I know not everybody shares that opinion, but I just feel like there were some winnable games that we lost.

We lost to Cincy by 1 point.
We lost @aTm in overtime.
We lost vs ISU in a game that was a 3 point game most of the last 3 minutes.
We lost vs Mizzou by 3.
Lost @UT in a game we lead by 4 at the half.
Lost vs KU in a game we lead at the half.

I really feel like any improvement at all, especially with a weaker Big 12, should have us on the bubble.

How many teams in the NCAA have this same argument?

 

[TheGimper]

I agree with a lot of what you are saying here but I also recognize we have a little more difficult a schedule this season overall as well.

Cincy was missing four its five best players for our game and we still lost at home (keep that in mind).
Texas A&M was a bad team
ISU was a good match up and they had a poor shooting night.
UT was nothing special
KU is probably your best reference and as I recall they ended up winning by double digits.

I've said elsewhere I feel we have improved this season and that's going to be good for a couple more wins but I don't think it equates to the dramatic upturn that a lot of other fans seem to see.

The Cincy game was nowhere near home. And they weren't missing 4 out of their 5 best players. They were missing one starter and a few rotation guys.
A&M was a disappointing team last year, but that game was on the road and they were easily a more talented squad.
So a bad shooting night on a close loss is excusable me for ISU, but if OU has a bad shooting night and barely wins then it's doom and gloom?
UT was a tournament team last year! If making the dance qualifies a team as nothing special then please sign me up.
You also left off the Mizzou game.

 

[luckyc1423]

For the record I'm standing by my 5th selection. I coached HS basketball for a number of years and can tell you don't judge one game. When I look at season so far I see three games on road that OU could have lost. One in Texas, ORU, and WVU. Those are games I think our squad lost last year. When I look at how many games last years team was in and lost down the stretch I see this team winning this year. At least some of them. Plus I don't think the league is a good as it was last year. That is my reason for saying 5th. To much youth in important spots to be too much higher.

I also expect M'Baye to continue to look better as the year goes on similar to Osby last year.

I def agree with you there.

 

[suncoastsooner]

While I get your point, I don't think ISU is as good as last year. They won't win 12 Big 12 games (I don't think), nor do I think they will win a game in the NCAA tourney.

JMO.

Being a better team as a whole doesn't always equate to a better record or deeper run in the tourney.

 

[suncoastsooner]

The Cincy game was nowhere near home. And they weren't missing 4 out of their 5 best players. They were missing one starter and a few rotation guys.
A&M was a disappointing team last year, but that game was on the road and they were easily a more talented squad.
So a bad shooting night on a close loss is excusable me for ISU, but if OU has a bad shooting night and barely wins then it's doom and gloom?
UT was a tournament team last year! If making the dance qualifies a team as nothing special then please sign me up.
You also left off the Mizzou game.

They were missing three starters and their sixth man. Two of the guys who were suspended lost their starting roles as the season progressed but they were basically playing with five guys who were a real part of their rotation last season. I don't think anybody in their right mind can state we played the real Cincy game. I was mistaken about it being at home . . . maybe I am still having flashbacks to the ass whipping we took my senior year.

Texas was not very special last season. They got in the NCAA tourney because our conference is respected (much like a couple of the Big East teams).

I did miss Mizzou, we played well that night. We also played well against Kansas State.

None of those things change what I see overall from this team or my expectations for the season.

We don't have to go to the tourney to have had a successful season. We just need to keep improving.

 

[KBaden145]

I stick with my pick at 5th but my order is different. OState is far better than I thought then and ut and WVU not as good. KState is also scuffling a bit as they adjust to the new coach. KU, Baylor, OState, KState, us. Iowa State is a bit of a mystery to me right now but I think our chances to move UP might be better than our chances to move down. Conference is deeper but not as good.

 

[WTSooner]

Being a better team as a whole doesn't always equate to a better record or deeper run in the tourney.

Well, you said the Big 12 was down, and ISU was better. I'd expect them to at least win as many games as last year, no?

 

[suncoastsooner]

Well, you said the Big 12 was down, and ISU was better. I'd expect them to at least win as many games as last year, no?

I didn't say it was down. I said it was deeper. I said we were a little down at the top; i.e. Kansas and Baylor.

 

[WTSooner]

How many teams in the NCAA have this same argument?

You are missing the point.

The point is that we didn't need "much" improvement over last year to win a handful more games. That handful more games would just happen to put us on the bubble.

I'm sure there are teams that went Dancing last year, that had they been a little better, would have improved their seed by 1-3 spots. My point is, is doesn't take much improvement, in some cases, to improve your record by a couple of games. And those couple of games are what OU needed last year. In theory, if we're going to be a little better this year, we should end up right on the bubble.

 

[WTSooner]

I didn't say it was down. I said it was deeper. I said we were a little down at the top; i.e. Kansas and Baylor.

KU is down.
Baylor is down.
WVU isn't as good as Mizzou.
TCU isn't as good as aTm.
TT is probably the same.
UT is down.

That leaves OU, osu, KSU, and ISU. If 6 of the 10 teams are probably worse, or no better than last year, I'd say the league as a whole is down.

 

[suncoastsooner]

KU is down.
Baylor is down.
WVU isn't as good as Mizzou.
TCU isn't as good as aTm.
TT is probably the same.
UT is down.

That leaves OU, osu, KSU, and ISU. If 6 of the 10 teams are probably worse, or no better than last year, I'd say the league as a whole is down.

I might contest the TCU/aTm thing . . . they are both bad.
ISU and OSU at the very least are better than they were last year. You lose all credibility saying OSU isn't vastly improved from last season.

 

[OSUFan]

KU is down.
Baylor is down.
WVU isn't as good as Mizzou.
TCU isn't as good as aTm.
TT is probably the same.
UT is down.

That leaves OU, osu, KSU, and ISU. If 6 of the 10 teams are probably worse, or no better than last year, I'd say the league as a whole is down.

honest question...do you truly not believe OSU is improved this year? They're ranked #15 in the country

 

[WTSooner]

I didn't say ANYTHING about osu, b/c it doesn't matter.

If 6 of the 10 teams are worse or the same, and you are one of the 4 teams that are the same or better, then your Big 12 schedule should be easier than the prior year, right? Because 6 of the 9 teams you play twice are worse than the previous season.

 

[WTSooner]

As for ISU, they may end up being better, but you can't say that yet.

The Big 12 coaches picked them 8th. Ken Pom predicts a 6th place finish, with two less wins than the previous season. ISU is not finishing tied for 3rd this year. It's just not happening.