Oklahoma Sooners (16-10; 4-9) / Next 5 Games

[WaymanFan]

7-11 is unprecedented for a Big 12 team to gain entry. I don't care how bad the bubble is....it's never been done! I won't feel good about our tournament chances unless we travel to Kansas City with an 8-10 record. The only way I could even wrap my head around 7-11 is if we win two games in the Big 12 Tourney. Personally, I think it would take an appearance in the Finals to secure entry at 7-11.

And I also think we were helped last year by the Trae Young hype machine. I don't think it was the sole factor to get us in the Dance, but I think it was a BIG help in the Committee room.

Ben Simmons is a not a good comparison because the SEC has been a crap hoops league for a long time. It certainly was in 2016. Only three teams qualified for the NCAA Tournament, with eATMe being the lone representative on the second weekend. I think we all can fondly recall the dump-trucking we laid upon their Aggie asses. And it took a miracle comeback against Northern Iowa for them to get even that far.

Thank you...was beginning to think it was only me who didn't think 7-11 was good enough to go Dancing.

 

[OUSKINS]

Well one reason 7-11 has never gotten someone in before is also likely because a team that goes 7-11 is generally unlikely to also go 12-1 in non con— especially when none of the 12 wins comes against bottom tier teams. I think OU is in at 7-11 IF they also win round one in B12 tourney to get them to 20 wins.

 

[WTSooner]

Even if 7-11 is good enough, that still seems unlikely. We should beat WVU. Every other team we play is better than us, and two of the three more winnable games other than WVU (UT, ISU, KSU) are on the road. I can see two wins, but three doesn't seem likely. Possible? Sure. But likely? I'd say no.

Nothing to do but let it play out. Weird things happen in college hoops sometimes.

 

[SoonerTraveler]

One step at a time. Step #1 is to beat Texas next Saturday at the LNC. Oklahoma is unlikely to go "dancing" if they lose next Saturday at HOME. Like the TCU game, another Must Win Game for the Sooners.

> Texas (15-11; 7-6) .. 6th place in Big-12
> Oklahoma (16-10; 4-9) .. 8th place in Big-12

Both teams get a full week off until the game next Saturday. Its a really big game for both teams, as both are in the 35-45 range of the NCAA NET rankings.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

 

[Ghost of Gar Heard]

Thank you...was beginning to think it was only me who didn't think 7-11 was good enough to go Dancing.

Then if OU ends up 7-11 you 2 should tell Lon that the team doesn't deserve it and he should turn down the invitation.

 

[sheepdogs1]

Then if OU ends up 7-11 you 2 should tell Lon that the team doesn't deserve it and he should turn down the invitation.

#4.

 

[TINY]

To add a little more context to how bad the SEC was in 2016: South Carolina did not get in. They went 11-7 in the league, 24-8 overall, and they were sent home. That was a Final Four team the next year, but the league was such a dumpster fire they did not get the benefit of the doubt.

So let's leave the Ben Simmons argument at home. That team wasn't worth a damn anyway. 19-14 with a 71-38 loss to eATMe to close out the SEC Tournament. Big whoop!

The argument was that Ben Simmons didn’t help prop up an unworthy resume. The fact that Ben Simmons played for LSU had no material effect on the committee’s evaluation of LSU. Ou’s resume was good enough and Trae young’s fame had no material effect on the committee’s evaluation of OU.

 

[WichitaSooner]

Fot those who don't think 7-11 is nearly enough, how do you account for the following two facts: entering yesterday, virtually every projection had us in, although barely. If we finish 7-11, that would mean winning four of our last six, and would include multiple wins against ranked teams. So you think going 4-2 against that schedule would take us from in to out, all while other bubble teams are inevitably losing?

 

[sheepdogs1]

Fot those who don't think 7-11 is nearly enough, how do you account for the following two facts: entering yesterday, virtually every projection had us in, although barely. If we finish 7-11, that would mean winning four of our last six, and would include multiple wins against ranked teams. So you think going 4-2 against that schedule would take us from in to out, all while other bubble teams are inevitably losing?

If it's never occurred before then it will take a special set of circumstances to amend that.

 

[WichitaSooner]

If it's never occurred before then it will take a special set of circumstances to amend that.

Not really. First of all, there is precedent of a team with a worse record in a power conference making it. Second, the tournament has more teams now than it had for the vast majority of the Big 12's existence. And third, conference record doesn't matter. Lots of you love to mention it pales in comparison to overall record. As another poster noted, our overall is far better than the typical 7-11 conference team. So if that's what you consider a special circumstance, I guess we meet it.

 

[WaymanFan]

Then if OU ends up 7-11 you 2 should tell Lon that the team doesn't deserve it and he should turn down the invitation.

Nope...always want to make it, and the NCAA is more kind to us than not. We were on the bubble a handful of times - 1993, 1996, 1997, 1999, 2018 are five years which come to mind. Only in 1993 did we not get invited (and only because last-place Missouri won the conference tournament and knocked us out). 1996 was the only year we made it which I objectively thought we didn't deserve to be there, but it didn't stop me from taking a half-day off from work to watch us get pummeled by Temple. Barring a run in the conference tournament, I don't think we deserve to go this year at 7-11...but I'll be hoping I'm wrong and will be cheering us on if we make it.

 

[stormspencer]

Nope...always want to make it, and the NCAA is more kind to us than not. We were on the bubble a handful of times - 1993, 1996, 1997, 1999, 2018 are five years which come to mind. Only in 1993 did we not get invited (and only because last-place Missouri won the conference tournament and knocked us out). 1996 was the only year we made it which I objectively thought we didn't deserve to be there, but it didn't stop me from taking a half-day off from work to watch us get pummeled by Temple. Barring a run in the conference tournament, I don't think we deserve to go this year at 7-11...but I'll be hoping I'm wrong and will be cheering us on if we make it.

This is where I'm at. I don't know how someone can look at the way our team has played during the conference season and objectively conclude this is a tournament team (as far as the eye test). Yes, I realize we had a good non-conference schedule and went 12-1.....but there were no elite wins (only one opportunity vs. Wiscy) and as it has turned out, teams like Florida, Creighton, ND, Dayton, and USC are mediocre or worse. Thus, I think our record is a little inflated, but I also realize the metrics based on our schedule are working in our favor. I just don't think we are much above mediocre ourselves.

As I've researched this a little more and with everything else being equal, I'm beginning to think 7-11 probably gets us in....as strange as it sounds. And it's not because I think we are overly "deserving". I believe it says more about the teams we will be competing with for the last 8 or so bids. We've avoided bad losses (based on our schedule) and we have a couple of good wins (TCU x 2).....but we need better wins. And there is always the chance where the committee may involve "head to head" results against the teams I've mentioned above if those said teams are competing with us. Of course, the best remedy would be to beat Texas, WV, and KU at home....and then win at least one game in the Big 12 tournament. That would likely put us in the "lock" column.

 

[Soonerinkc]

This is where I'm at. I don't know how someone can look at the way our team has played during the conference season and objectively conclude this is a tournament team (as far as the eye test). Yes, I realize we had a good non-conference schedule and went 12-1.....but there were no elite wins (only one opportunity vs. Wiscy) and as it has turned out, teams like Florida, Creighton, ND, Dayton, and USC are mediocre or worse. Thus, I think our record is a little inflated, but I also realize the metrics based on our schedule are working in our favor. I just don't think we are much above mediocre ourselves.

As I've researched this a little more and with everything else being equal, I'm beginning to think 7-11 probably gets us in....as strange as it sounds. And it's not because I think we are overly "deserving". I believe it says more about the teams we will be competing with for the last 8 or so bids. We've avoided bad losses (based on our schedule) and we have a couple of good wins (TCU x 2).....but we need better wins. And there is always the chance where the committee may involve "head to head" results against the teams I've mentioned above if those said teams are competing with us. Of course, the best remedy would be to beat Texas, WV, and KU at home....and then win at least one game in the Big 12 tournament. That would likely put us in the "lock" column.

agree, 100%

 

[NY Soonerfan]

As I've researched this a little more and with everything else being equal, I'm beginning to think 7-11 probably gets us in....as strange as it sounds. And it's not because I think we are overly "deserving". I believe it says more about the teams we will be competing with for the last 8 or so bids. We've avoided bad losses (based on our schedule) and we have a couple of good wins (TCU x 2).....but we need better wins. And there is always the chance where the committee may involve "head to head" results against the teams I've mentioned above if those said teams are competing with us. Of course, the best remedy would be to beat Texas, WV, and KU at home....and then win at least one game in the Big 12 tournament. That would likely put us in the "lock" column.

This is the point Wichita and I are trying to make. It's as much about what the rest of the bubble teams have not done as it would be about what we have done. We'd have 10 QI/QII wins and ZERO games against Q4 teams; in the world of 18-19 bubble teams, that's very heady stuff. Conference record, 20 wins, last 10 games, none of it matters...and it especially won't matter if we get to 7 when matched up with the rest of the bubble teams.

 

[WTSooner]

This is the point Wichita and I are trying to make. It's as much about what the rest of the bubble teams have not done as it would be about what we have done. We'd have 10 QI/QII wins and ZERO games against Q4 teams; in the world of 18-19 bubble teams, that's very heady stuff. Conference record, 20 wins, last 10 games, none of it matters...and it especially won't matter if we get to 7 when matched up with the rest of the bubble teams.

How many wins (including OOC) do we have against teams that will make the tournament?

 

[stormspencer]

This is the point Wichita and I are trying to make. It's as much about what the rest of the bubble teams have not done as it would be about what we have done. We'd have 10 QI/QII wins and ZERO games against Q4 teams; in the world of 18-19 bubble teams, that's very heady stuff. Conference record, 20 wins, last 10 games, none of it matters...and it especially won't matter if we get to 7 when matched up with the rest of the bubble teams.

As of last check, we have (4) Quadrant 1 wins: Wofford, @TCU, Florida-N, and @Northwestern. None of those are overly impressive in my estimation, but they are nonetheless Q-1 wins for now.

I believe we have 5 or 6 Q-2 wins to go along with those wins above.....and having avoided bad losses (Q-3, Q-4), the metrics of our numbers look favorable compared to most bubble teams we are compared to. Having said that, beating KU and Texas at home (along with WV) will likely have us no worse the 12-seed play-in game.....unless a lot of craziness happens in smaller conference tournaments.

I didn't have time to look up all the other bubble teams and their resumes, but I would love to find a site that has organized all these quadrants with team results. This new NET ranking system seems to be working in our favor, but it will mean little to nothing if we don't win our remaining home games.

 

[stormspencer]

How many wins (including OOC) do we have against teams that will make the tournament?

My guess is right now we have (3) wins against likely tournament teams (TCU x 2 and Wofford). I do believe that Florida could still make the tournament...which would make four. Also, North Texas or UTSA have the capability of winning the C-USA tournament. And I would say Dayton has a chance to win the A-10 tournament. But that's it as of now.

 

[sheepdogs1]

If a team has a rather poor season, but wins its conference tournament and in doing so captures an automatic bid, that surely (Leslie Nielsen) doesn't help our situation. Does it?

 

[WichitaSooner]

How many wins (including OOC) do we have against teams that will make the tournament?

That's not a selection criterion to my knowledge. That's why NY and I point to quad 1 and 2 wins, because that's actually more important. But since you keep asking, I'd say we currently have 3 or 4, possibly more depending on how a couple teams finish. And since the purpose of this discussion is to debate whether 7-11 gets us in, in that scenario we would have added at least two more wins against tournament teams.

Now I have a question for you. If none of the bubble teams have what you consider to be a sufficient amount of wins against tournament teams, what do you suggest the committee do? Just make it a 60-team field since there aren't enough "deserving" teams?

 

[WTSooner]

My guess is right now we have (3) wins against likely tournament teams (TCU x 2 and Wofford). I do believe that Florida could still make the tournament...which would make four. Also, North Texas or UTSA have the capability of winning the C-USA tournament. And I would say Dayton has a chance to win the A-10 tournament. But that's it as of now.

Thank you!