Q&A with a Spartan fan

MisterMarch

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Hi, everybody! I've been reading the board for a couple days and I decided to join the discussion. I'll lay out some information I think is relevant, and I'll try to answer any questions you might have as well.

First, I'd like to debunk a common misconception: MSU does NOT prefer a slow, grind-it-out style of play. I've seen a couple posters make this claim, and it's understandable if you've only watched a few games against B1G competition. However, the Spartans are at their nest when they're running the floor. Trice and Valentine love throwing up lobs to Dawson in transition, and Tum Tum Nairn is one of the fastest players in the college game. I know you guys like your chances if this game turns into a track meet, but MSU is very good defensively in transition. It's a point of emphasis for Izzo and I see this being a real battle.

Next, I want to break down this MSU team for you a little bit.

Lourawls "Tum Tum" Nairn
The Spartans' starting PG isn't much of a shooter, but he's lightning fast and he has good vision. His passing isn't flashy but he generally makes good decisions.

Travis Trice
He spent most of last year splitting time at PG, but he moved to the 2 spot earlier this season. He can shoot the lights out, but tends to be a bit streaky from behind the arc. Drives strong to the basket, especially in transition, and he finishes well. Size is his only real weakness. He's playing out of his mind right now, but he's still only 6 feet tall and 170 pounds soaking wet. He's been pushed around by big, physical guards in the past.

Denzel Valentine
Possibly the most gifted player on this team. He has good size, good speed, and he's an assist machine. Streaky jumpshooter, but when he catches fire he's nearly unstoppable. Rebounds very well and gets the ball out quickly in transition. At times, he struggles with "schoolyard syndrome," going for the flashy dish rather than making the smarter, safer pass. Once again, when he's on target he's your worst nightmare. When he's not, he can be a liability.

Branden Dawson
The closest thing to an NBA-ready player on the roster. He might be only 6'6", but he plays much bigger because he's so freakishly athletic. Not much of a threat from outside, but he has a soft touch on midrange jumpers and drives to the basket with authority. Plays above the rim on both ends of the floor, and if he stays out of foul trouble he will hurt you on the glass and block some shots while he's at it. His handle is perhaps his greatest weakness; at times he struggles to control the ball when driving into the lane.

Matt Costello
Not the most athletic player on the team, but he gets back in transition and rebounds well. He does very well with leverage and positioning, and he has the ability to post up and score or find an open teammate on the wing. He gets in foul trouble at times when guarding faster or bigger post players.

Gavin Schilling
More athletic than Costello, but he makes the mistakes you'd expect from a younger post player. Dumb fouls have kept him off the floor a bit more than we'd like. He can post up and score, but don't expect him to do much from outside of 8 feet or so.

Marvin Clark

Freshman with a lot of upside. Athletic enough to drive and finish strong, but he can hit from range as well. Expect him to spell Dawson and Valentine, but his minutes are limited by his defensive ability at this point.

Bryn Forbes
Transfer out of Cleveland State. Very accurate three-point shooter. He can drive and score, but his size makes him more effective from range. Defensively he's improved over the year, so expect him to log significant minutes in relief of the other guards.

Alvin Ellis
He's had some injury-related setbacks, but he's an effective scorer. He'll see a little bit of time, but nothing major unless MSU ends up in foul trouble.

Colby Wollenman
He's your standard basic white guy walk-on. He plays a smart game and avoids mistakes, exactly what MSU needs when their bigs get too many fouls too early.

Overall, the Spartans are a great rebounding team, and they play with great chemistry. No one is overly selfish, and everyone is willing to spread the ball around. They're way more than the sum of their parts. Free throws have been a nagging problem, but they've slowly pulled up their average throughout the postseason and unless Oklahoma starts intentionally hacking them early, I don't think it will be a huge factor. Rebounding and staying out of foul trouble are the keys to the game for Izzo's squad.

My prediction: MSU 79 - OU 72 in a game that is closer than the score indicates.

I'll be happy to answer any questions you might gave, and I look forward to a great game tomorrow night.
 
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I've watched enough Michigan State basketball to understand your team. Experience is on our side. That's why I think we win. That said, you're playing your best basketball right now and we are not. That's scary.

In all, I expect OU to win a close game, pretty much your score reversed.
 
Dang, our Sooners obviously have NO chance against these guys.
 
I REALLY hope Izzo is wanting a track meet. That would be GREAT news.

Well, MisterMarch says the Spartans are at their "nest" when they're running the floor. I can only hope that means they're likely to lay an egg if they try to run with the Sooners. ;)
 
You could honestly remove the names and put our players in there, and this would be about the same.

Only difference is that we've got better size on the perimeter and are maybe a little overmatched athletically in the frontcourt. Pretty equal teams all the way around.

I think Isaiah Cousins is the X Factor. If he gets it going, we can be very difficult to stop.

As to the track meet mention, I know MSU says they like to run, but not in the way that OU, ISU, North Carolina like to run. MSU likes transition baskets but tries to play a halfcourt game. OU tries to play a full court game. If this becomes a track meet, I think we'll have the advantage of being comfortable, while I could see that tempo wearing MSU down a bit, especially the big men who tend to be on the thick side.
 
Thanks for joining the discussion and telling us more about your team. I don't know anybody that likes to play against Tom Izzo in March because he usually over-achieves his seed (as he did again this year)...and he always wins with class. That said, I think whoever wins will be by 1 or 2 points. Best of luck on the game!
 
Not saying it will absolutely not happen, but 79 points? How many times has MSU scored that much this year? Honest question
 
Not saying it will absolutely not happen, but 79 points? How many times has MSU scored that much this year? Honest question

By my count---9.

87 vs. Loyola (Chi)
79 vs. Santa Clara
79 vs. Marquette
85 vs. Ark. Pine Bluff
87 vs. Oakland
82 vs. The Citadel
84 vs. Northwestern (OT)
80 @ Michigan
90 vs. Minnesota (OT Loss)
 
By my count---9.

87 vs. Loyola (Chi)
79 vs. Santa Clara
79 vs. Marquette
85 vs. Ark. Pine Bluff
87 vs. Oakland
82 vs. The Citadel
84 vs. Northwestern (OT)
80 @ Michigan
90 vs. Minnesota (OT Loss)

Interesting. Wonder how our defensive abilities match up with those on that list.
 
Dang, our Sooners obviously have NO chance against these guys.

I tried to be pretty objective, and I highlighted the major weaknesses of all the MSU players. I didn't predict a blowout either, so whatever, guy.

You could honestly remove the names and put our players in there, and this would be about the same.

Only difference is that we've got better size on the perimeter and are maybe a little overmatched athletically in the frontcourt. Pretty equal teams all the way around.

I think Isaiah Cousins is the X Factor. If he gets it going, we can be very difficult to stop.

As to the track meet mention, I know MSU says they like to run, but not in the way that OU, ISU, North Carolina like to run. MSU likes transition baskets but tries to play a halfcourt game. OU tries to play a full court game. If this becomes a track meet, I think we'll have the advantage of being comfortable, while I could see that tempo wearing MSU down a bit, especially the big men who tend to be on the thick side.

These are very similar teams, which is why I think it's going to be a very close game, likely down to the wire. Izzo does run plays out of half court sets, but in most circumstances he isn't going to slow things down intentionally. That said, he's a wizard when it comes to game planning and adjustment, and if he thinks it'll give MSU the advantage he'll do just about anything.

It's hard to make the Spartans uncomfortable late in the season, because Izzo puts them through as much discomfort as possible during the non conference season. There isn't a lot they haven't seen in a game situation.

As far as the frontcourt goes, this is not the MSU of 2010 with Draymond Green and Derrick Nix running around at 260+ pounds. The biggest guy on the team is Costello at 245. Unless foul trouble limits their availability, I wouldn't expect the big men to get worn out. A bigger concern with the tempo for me is Valentine's ability to stay calm. He has a tendency to start pushing a little too fast when the pace picks up and that has led to bad decisions in a few games this year.

As well as MSU is playing right now, they have yet to see Valentine, Dawson, and Trice play at their best in the same game. Lately, Valentine has been the quietest of the Spartans' stars, so i would say he's the X factor on our end. Defensively, does Cousins typically guard the 2 or the 3?
 
I tried to be pretty objective, and I highlighted the major weaknesses of all the MSU players. I didn't predict a blowout either, so whatever, guy.







These are very similar teams, which is why I think it's going to be a very close game, likely down to the wire. Izzo does run plays out of half court sets, but in most circumstances he isn't going to slow things down intentionally. That said, he's a wizard when it comes to game planning and adjustment, and if he thinks it'll give MSU the advantage he'll do just about anything.



It's hard to make the Spartans uncomfortable late in the season, because Izzo puts them through as much discomfort as possible during the non conference season. There isn't a lot they haven't seen in a game situation.



As far as the frontcourt goes, this is not the MSU of 2010 with Draymond Green and Derrick Nix running around at 260+ pounds. The biggest guy on the team is Costello at 245. Unless foul trouble limits their availability, I wouldn't expect the big men to get worn out. A bigger concern with the tempo for me is Valentine's ability to stay calm. He has a tendency to start pushing a little too fast when the pace picks up and that has led to bad decisions in a few games this year.



As well as MSU is playing right now, they have yet to see Valentine, Dawson, and Trice play at their best in the same game. Lately, Valentine has been the quietest of the Spartans' stars, so i would say he's the X factor on our end. Defensively, does Cousins typically guard the 2 or the 3?


Cousins typically is on the best guard, though we also switch a LOT on screens. All three guards are pretty solid defensively. Where I'm a bit worried defensively is against Dawson.
 
we are a much much better half court Defensive team .. (as well as a better Defensive team overall)

and while we both have played good Offensive teams all season .. mich st has not faced good defensive teams as a whole ..
 
Valentine is the key...and it's not whether he is scoring points or not.
 
Interesting. Wonder how our defensive abilities match up with those on that list.

Just to give the flip side of that coin, OU has give only given up 79+ 3 times:

86 @ WVU;
85 @ KU;
83 vs. ISU (and only happened because ISU hit a couple garbage time 3s).

I'm with you. It's possible that MSU could run the score up that high, but I'd be VERY surprised.

Also, thanks MisterMarch for coming over. I really appreciate your breakdown.
 
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we are a much much better half court Defensive team .. (as well as a better Defensive team overall)

and while we both have played good Offensive teams all season .. mich st has not faced good defensive teams as a whole ..

This is surprisingly true. The best defensive teams they've played all year are:

Virginia - 2
Kansas - 10
Nebraska - 26
Georgia - 22

Not sure any other opponents ranked in the top 40 defensively. They went 2-2 against those teams. However, they won the last two against good defenses...so not sure we have a big enough sample size to know. I agree that we have to neutralize Valentine on both ends.
 
I don't think either team will make it to the upper 70's. This game won't be the up and down that some seem to think. At least, I wouldn't think it would be.

I'd guess mid to high 60's.

Edit: Just looked this up, but MSU was 224 in the country as far as tempo. Unless something changed, personnel-wise, mid-season or so, I think MSU slows the game down more than the OP might think.
 
I tried to be pretty objective, and I highlighted the major weaknesses of all the MSU players. I didn't predict a blowout either, so whatever, guy.

Objective? :ez-laugh: Let me list a few of the superlatives you used to describe the MSU players: • Lightning fast; • Shoot the lights out; • Assist machine; • Nearly unstoppable; • Freakishly athletic.

I could go on, but I think we got the point.

Look, we all know that Tom Izzo's teams are well coached and very hard to beat – especially in March. But that assessment of the players on this year's squad was anything but objective. The Spartans may run OU out of the gym tomorrow night, and if they do, I'll be the first to give them credit for it. But I'd rather you not come to my team's board and tell me that the best my Sooners can expect is to be "competitive" against the lightning fast, shoot the lights out, nearly unstoppable, freakishly athletic Spartans.
 
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