Q&A with a Spartan fan

[MisterMarch]

The fact of the matter is, if both teams play their best basketball at the best of their abilities and neither coach gets in the way, OU wins by 5-7 points.

The fact of the matter is, we haven't seen either team play their absolute best basketball this year. We've seen OU play close to their ceiling in Big 12 play, but they aren't there right now. MSU is playing close to their ceiling right now, but they haven't reached it yet.

I agree that this game will likely be decided by a 5-7 point margin, but I think we're unlikely to see lightning strike twice on the same court tonight. If either team can get 100% peak production from their three best players, they will be victorious.

 

[paulsboutique]

Why does a dude named 'Lourawls' need a nickname?

 

[KBaden145]

The fact of the matter is, we haven't seen either team play their absolute best basketball this year. We've seen OU play close to their ceiling in Big 12 play, but they aren't there right now. MSU is playing close to their ceiling right now, but they haven't reached it yet.



I agree that this game will likely be decided by a 5-7 point margin, but I think we're unlikely to see lightning strike twice on the same court tonight. If either team can get 100% peak production from their three best players, they will be victorious.

I'm going to guess we're will disagree about each team's ceiling. I have a ton of respect for Izzo but this not one of his better teams and definitely not one of his more talented ones. This wasn't a tournament team prior to January. I think they've played about as well as they're going to. Is it good enough to win tonight? Possibly. Fact remains our best has been better this season than Michigan State's. He has them playing good at the right time of year but stop acting like OU has gone into the tank or something. This Sooner team is fully capable of some very good basketball, good enough to blow this Spartan team out if they get them down. I seriously doubt that happens. Regardless, I appreciate your optimism. I think fans of both programs have a right to feel good about their chances. I won't wish you good luck or anything but, again, thanks for stopping by.


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[MisterMarch]

I'm going to guess we're will disagree about each team's ceiling. I have a ton of respect for Izzo but this not one of his better teams and definitely not one of his more talented ones. This wasn't a tournament team prior to January. I think they've played about as well as they're going to. Is it good enough to win tonight? Possibly. Fact remains our best has been better this season than Michigan State's. He has them playing good at the right time of year but stop acting like OU has gone into the tank or something. This Sooner team is fully capable of some very good basketball, good enough to blow this Spartan team out if they get them down. I seriously doubt that happens. Regardless, I appreciate your optimism. I think fans of both programs have a right to feel good about their chances. I won't wish you good luck or anything but, again, thanks for stopping by.


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So let's get down to brass tacks. If you look at the past 5 games for OU, what capacity do you think they were playing at? Because they looked a lot better in January and early February than they did against Albany and Dayton.

For MSU, I would evaluate them as follows:

vs. UVA - 95%
vs. UGA - 88%
vs. UW - 90%
vs. MD - 95%
vs. OSU - 95%

They're playing their best basketball of the season, but that doesn't mean they're playing the best basketball they're capable of. They need to cut down on some of their mental mistakes, but they've all proven they can play better individually. For this team to hit 100% those individuals need to all execute to their full potential at the same time. Trice and maybe Costello are the only guys who are doing that right now.

 

[DenverSooner]

OU was 1 game above .500 in conference play in January. They were 6-1 in February. In March they are 4-2 but that includes four tournament games, a road games in Ames and a home game against KU. I am really not sure how you could conclude OU looked better in January.

It should be a good game.

 

[BoulderSooner]

The fact of the matter is, we haven't seen either team play their absolute best basketball this year. We've seen OU play close to their ceiling in Big 12 play, but they aren't there right now. MSU is playing close to their ceiling right now, but they haven't reached it yet.

I agree that this game will likely be decided by a 5-7 point margin, but I think we're unlikely to see lightning strike twice on the same court tonight. If either team can get 100% peak production from their three best players, they will be victorious.

if OU plays at 80% of ceiling this mich st team can't beat them ..

 

[campbest]

For MSU, I would evaluate them as follows:

vs. UVA - 95%
vs. UGA - 88%
vs. UW - 90%
vs. MD - 95%
vs. OSU - 95%

Advanced metrics everyone.

 

[scrybe]

Advanced metrics everyone.

For certain. I actually thought MSU played at 91% of their capacity against Wisconsin.

 

[MisterMarch]

OU was 1 game above .500 in conference play in January. They were 6-1 in February. In March they are 4-2 but that includes four tournament games, a road games in Ames and a home game against KU. I am really not sure how you could conclude OU looked better in January.

It should be a good game.

I'm not gonna pretend to be an expert, but I caught the game against Baylor in early January and I watched part of the game against WVU where they blew them out big time. In both cases I thought they looked better than what I've seen in the tourney so far, but I'll readily admit that's not a big sample size.

I'm not claiming they've fallen off a cliff or anything, but they didn't look great against a 14 and 11 seed so far, and they looked better in the regular season.

 

[Zimwillett]

OU was 1 game above .500 in conference play in January. They were 6-1 in February. In March they are 4-2 but that includes four tournament games, a road games in Ames and a home game against KU. I am really not sure how you could conclude OU looked better in January.

It should be a good game.

Yeah. I'm not sure I fully understand this notion that OU is not playing well right now. Record wise they've been just as good, if not better, than Michigan State down the stretch. Some point to closer scores in the tournament for OU, but it's not like MSU blew out a fairly middling Georgia team.

Admittedly, State looked good against a good UVA team, but a lot can happen to a team's level of play in the span of 5 or 6 days. For example, on February 9, OU played arguably it's best game of the season vs. ISU in Norman. Just five short days later, they laid a pretty serious egg @ K-State.

In the end, I think this is going to be a great game, but one I think OU can and will win if they play well.

 

[DenverSooner]

I'm not gonna pretend to be an expert, but I caught the game against Baylor in early January and I watched part of the game against WVU where they blew them out big time. In both cases I thought they looked better than what I've seen in the tourney so far, but I'll readily admit that's not a big sample size.

I'm not claiming they've fallen off a cliff or anything, but they didn't look great against a 14 and 11 seed so far, and they looked better in the regular season.

Those games were one month apart. The Baylor game was January 3 and the WVU win was February 3. The WVU game was inspired by the fact that WVU beat OU badly in Morgantown. Probably the worst performance by OU the entire season.

They looked fine against a 14 seed in my opinion. Two of the 14 seeds upset 3 seeds. Notre Dame won by 4 points. OU won by 9 points. Dayton was essentially a home game for Dayton and OU won by 6. Compare that to Xavier beating a 14 by 9, KU losing as 2 seed, Villanova losing as a 1 seed, Virginia losing to MSU, and Wisconsin beating Oregon by 7.

 

[MisterMarch]

Yeah. I'm not sure I fully understand this notion that OU is not playing well right now. Record wise they've been just as good, if not better, than Michigan State down the stretch. Some point to closer scores in the tournament for OU, but it's not like MSU blew out a fairly middling Georgia team.

Admittedly, State looked good against a good UVA team, but a lot can happen to a team's level of play in the span of 5 or 6 days. For example, on February 9, OU played arguably it's best game of the season vs. ISU in Norman. Just five short days later, they laid a pretty serious egg @ K-State.

In the end, I think this is going to be a great game, but one I think OU can and will win if they play well.

I'm not trying to convince any of you that your team is bad. That would be stupid, both because it isn't true and because you wouldn't admit if it was. This is a very good Sooners team, but having only watched 4 or 5 of your games this season I'm curious as to how good you think they truly are compared to their level of play over the past few games.

 

[scrybe]

I'm not trying to convince any of you that your team is bad. That would be stupid, both because it isn't true and because you wouldn't admit if it was. This is a very good Sooners team, but having only watched 4 or 5 of your games this season I'm curious as to how good you think they truly are compared to their level of play over the past few games.

I think it should be obvious to you that most (all?) of us believe our Sooners are (slightly) better than MSU, and will beat the Spartans if we play well.

You obviously believe the opposite is true.

Why on earth you continue to try to convince us is beyond me. If MSU is the better team, they'll prove it tonight. And if it happens, most (all?) of us will congratulate the Sparties and move on.

Let it go. Please!!!

 

[MisterMarch]

Those games were one month apart. The Baylor game was January 3 and the WVU win was February 3. The WVU game was inspired by the fact that WVU beat OU badly in Morgantown. Probably the worst performance by OU the entire season.

See, that's why I'm asking these questions. Thanks for clearing some things up.

They looked fine against a 14 seed in my opinion. Two of the 14 seeds upset 3 seeds. Notre Dame won by 4 points. OU won by 9 points. Dayton was essentially a home game for Dayton and OU won by 6. Compare that to Xavier beating a 14 by 9, KU losing as 2 seed, Villanova losing as a 1 seed, Virginia losing to MSU, and Wisconsin beating Oregon by 7.

Survive and advance is the name of the game this time of year. If I was a Kentucky fan looking at Notre Dame or an Arizona fan looking at Wisconsin I'd have the same questions though. Ultimately how well they played last game has no bearing on how well they will play this game, I just like to examine the trends.

 

[NickZepp]

I'm not gonna pretend to be an expert, but I caught the game against Baylor in early January and I watched part of the game against WVU where they blew them out big time. In both cases I thought they looked better than what I've seen in the tourney so far, but I'll readily admit that's not a big sample size.

I'm not claiming they've fallen off a cliff or anything, but they didn't look great against a 14 and 11 seed so far, and they looked better in the regular season.

If you look at your Michigan State team even in late February, I wouldn't say they were impressive either.

 

[MisterMarch]

If you look at your Michigan State team even in late February, I wouldn't say they were impressive either.

And I wouldn't disagree. I'm not challenging you or trying to prove you wrong or trying to prove that MSU is superior. I'm just asking you, because obviously you know your team better than I do, to explain what's different between their latest few games and the games where they soundly beat Iowa State or Baylor or West Virginia.

 

[KBaden145]

Q&A with a Spartan fan

And I wouldn't disagree. I'm not challenging you or trying to prove you wrong or trying to prove that MSU is superior. I'm just asking you, because obviously you know your team better than I do, to explain what's different between their latest few games and the games where they soundly beat Iowa State or Baylor or West Virginia.

I go by my eyes not scores or analytics. I've seen every single one of our games at least once and probably about 10+ plus and parts of about half of MSU's throughout the season. OU's play hit some highs and lows throughout the season but, from week to week and game to game, they have played like a top 12-15 basketball team against a very difficult schedule. in my eyes. MSU was not that good of a team through non-conference and the early conference season. However, they improved as good teams with coaches of Izzo's caliber tend to do. I think OU has played like they have all season to this point of the tournament, maybe not as good as they have in a game or two from the season but better than most and at least as good as the bulk of the regular season. MSU is playing as good as they are capable of right now in, my opinion, based on what I've seen all season long. All that said the debate is if what MSU is doing right now is good enough to beat OU if they play well. You think so. I completely disagree. Quit trying to convince people on an opponents board they are wrong or you are right. It's folly. Thanks for coming, enjoy the game, and stop by afterward with class despite the outcome.


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[scrybe]

Re: Q&A with a Spartan fan

I go by my eyes not scores or analytics. I've seen every single one of our games at least once and probably about 10+ plus and parts of about half of MSU's throughout the season. OU's play hit some highs and lows throughout the season but, from week to week and game to game, they have played like a top 12-15 basketball team against a very difficult schedule. in my eyes. MSU was not that good of a team through non-conference and the early conference season. However, they improved as good teams with coaches of Izzo's caliber tend to do. I think OU has played like they have all season to this point of the tournament, maybe not as good as they have in a game or two from the season but better than most and at least as good as the bulk of the regular season. MSU is playing as good as they are capable of right now in, my opinion, based on what I've seen all season long. All that said the debate is if what MSU is doing right now is good enough to beat OU if they play well. You think so. I completely disagree. Quit trying to convince people on an opponents board they are wrong or you are right. It's folly. Thanks for coming, enjoy the game, and stop by afterward with class despite the outcome.


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Nice post, KBaden. Maybe you can get through to this guy; I sure haven't been able to.

 

[MisterMarch]

Re: Q&A with a Spartan fan

I think OU has played like they have all season to this point of the tournament, maybe not as good as they have in a game or two from the season but better than most and at least as good as the bulk of the regular season.

Thank you.

 

[MaternClerves]

Re: Q&A with a Spartan fan

Prediction: Izzo dunks over Lon Kruger tonight