RPI dropped to #21

[bocabull]

The numbers are starting to settle in. After a 3-1 conference start winning both at home & splitting on the road our RPI has maintained right around #20.

If we can finish at 13-5 in the B12 we are in the dance for sure as our RPI will maintain in the 15-25 range.

We're going to lose @KU & @ISU which leaves us only 2 more losses before hitting the danger zone. Not going to be easy.

 

[garyeb2]

I don't know where you are coming from. Just inside a top 40 ranking should be about good enough. That coupled with a 10-8 conference record and a clean 5th place or better finish would cinch it.

A 9-9 record and a tie for 5th-6th would smell like NIT.

 

[bocabull]

If you think OU can finish the season 7-7 in the Big 12 without our RPI crashing you might want to brush up on your math.

13-5 will guarantee a bid, 12-6 starts putting us in bubble territory and anything less we are in trouble. To lose 8 big 12 games will mean we have to lose every remaining game vs the decent teams or lose a game or two vs the horrible ones.

 

[garyeb2]

If you think OU can finish the season 7-7 in the Big 12 without our RPI crashing you might want to brush up on your math.

13-5 will guarantee a bid, 12-6 starts putting us in bubble territory and anything less we are in trouble. To lose 8 big 12 games will mean we have to lose every remaining game vs the decent teams or lose a game or two vs the horrible ones.

My math is just fine. I am concerned about yours. 7+7 equals 14. We play 18 conference games. If you are saying finish out the season by winning 7 and losing 7 of the remaining 14 to finish 10-8 and that won't be good enough. Well, you are wrong.

A top 40 finish coupled with a winning conference record is a cinch.

 

[seniorsooner]

If a 12-6 record in conference play puts you on the tournament bubble, the Big 12 sucks even worse than I thought it did.

 

[WTSooner]

There is no way it will take OU 12 Big 12 victories to get to the Dance. 11-7 will get it done, and 10-8 might. And on the same note, I don't see any way OU finishes with more than 11 victories.....MAYBE 12, but I think that is doubtful. Anybody throwing out 13 or 14 is simply being ridiculous.

 

[bocabull]

If a 12-6 record in conference play puts you on the tournament bubble, the Big 12 sucks even worse than I thought it did.

We should get in at 12-6 but will be flirting with bubble territory. 11-7 will be dangerously on the bubble and 10-8 will surely be outside looking in.

We only have 8 games left vs top 90 RPI teams. Finishing 1-7 vs top 90 teams or lose multiple times to teams outside the top 90 will crash our RPI.

 

[WTSooner]

A follow up to my post above.

Last year, the Big 12 sent six teams Dancing, including 9-9 Texas.

In 2011, the Big 12 sent five teams Dancing, including 8-8 Mizzou.

In 2010, the Big 12 sent seven teams Dancing, including both 9-7 teams OSU and UT.

In 2009, the Big 12 sent six teams Dancing, including both 9-7 teams OSU and aTm. KSU was also 9-7, and missed out. If I recall though, they were right on the bubble, and had some OOC losses.

In 2008, the Big 12 sent six teams Dancing, including 8-8 aTm, and 9-7 OU and Baylor.

Big 12 conference ranking according to Ken Pom each year:
2012: 2
2011: 3
2010: 2
2009: 4
2008: 1

The Big 12 is currently ranked #6, but I'm not convinced we can't climb a spot or two, and at the end of the day, I think being 6th, rather than 3rd or 4th, would only cost the conference a 6th team if they were around the 9-9 mark.

 

[opsooner]

There is no way it will take OU 12 Big 12 victories to get to the Dance. 11-7 will get it done, and 10-8 might. And on the same note, I don't see any way OU finishes with more than 11 victories.....MAYBE 12, but I think that is doubtful. Anybody throwing out 13 or 14 is simply being ridiculous.

I agree. I guess it is good to think we need 12 victories but 11 is safe. 11 will not be easy though. I think we have to win on Monday, at home against TCU, and take our last 2 (WV and @TCU).

I'll cede the game at KU. That leaves 9 games (4 at home and 5 on the road) where we need 4 wins. Very do-able but I expect all of those games (including at Tech) to be tough.

Of course, we could still lose one of those I think we must win if we can pull off more than 4 of those 9 wins.

 

[WTSooner]

I agree. I guess it is good to think we need 12 victories but 11 is safe. 11 will not be easy though. I think we have to win on Monday, at home against TCU, and take our last 2 (WV and @TCU).

I'll cede the game at KU. That leaves 9 games (4 at home and 5 on the road) where we need 4 wins. Very do-able but I expect all of those games (including at Tech) to be tough.

Of course, we could still lose one of those I think we must win if we can pull off more than 4 of those 9 wins.

That is kind of how I see it. We have 3 wins. We have to beat TCU twice, TT on the road, and WVU at home. That is 7 wins. Probably need to beat UT in Norman tomorrow. That is 8.

That means we need to win 2 or 3 out of the following:

vs KU
@ KU
vs Baylor
@ Baylor
vs ISU
@ ISU
vs KSU
@ OSU
@ UT

Those home games will be VERY important. Always easier to win at home. I expect UT to be improved by the time we play them in Austin, but I'm not ready to concede that game just yet. Same with Stillwater and Ames.

 

[pnkranger]

That is kind of how I see it. We have 3 wins. We have to beat TCU twice, TT on the road, and WVU at home. That is 7 wins. Probably need to beat UT in Norman tomorrow. That is 8.

That means we need to win 2 or 3 out of the following:

vs KU
@ KU
vs Baylor
@ Baylor
vs ISU
@ ISU
vs KSU
@ OSU
@ UT

Those home games will be VERY important. Always easier to win at home. I expect UT to be improved by the time we play them in Austin, but I'm not ready to concede that game just yet. Same with Stillwater and Ames.

This is a great write-up. I do think we'll take at least two from our 5 games against ISU, BU, and KSU. 10 wins is amazing. Anything over that is pure gravy (and seeding).

 

[seniorsooner]

I think 11-7 is the magic number for us. 10-8 might do it if we won two games in the conf tourney, but we would be in a precarious position.

 

[campbest]

10-8 and one win in the Big XII tournament virtually guarantees this team a bid. Only cause for concern would be the results from championship week and how many bids are stolen from mid majors who wouldn't get an at large.

 

[Soonercuda]

11-7 means OU would be 7-7 vs teams not named Tech and TCU. I think that puts us very much on the bubble, a first round Big 12 tourney win would be a must and a second round win would just get us in I think. A second round loss would put us very much on the bubble.

 

[WTSooner]

Some of you guys are over-analyzing this. Historically speaking, if you did what OU did OOC, and you finish above .500 in the Big 12, you are just about guaranteed a spot.

 

[bocabull]

Some of you guys are over-analyzing this. Historically speaking, if you did what OU did OOC, and you finish above .500 in the Big 12, you are just about guaranteed a spot.

It would be interesting to see how many teams 1-2 games above .500 from the 5th or 6th rated conference got in each year WT. That weak conference ranking is uncharted territory and makes past comparisons suspect.

I hope we go 12-6 which means we sweep Texas Tech, TCU, WVU & Texas, split with KSU, ISU, Baylor & OSU and get swept by Kansas. A team that does that belongs in the tournament and might make a little noise.

 

[WaymanFan]

I think 11-7 is the magic number for us. 10-8 might do it if we won two games in the conf tourney, but we would be in a precarious position.

I think we need 11 wins as well...plus at least another one or two in the conference tournament. If we go 10-8 in conference play, and 1-1 in the conference tournament, that would put us at 20-12 with likely no "signature" victories. I just don't think it's enough.

11-7 plus at least one win in the conference tournament puts us at 21-11...and MAYBE a double-digit seed in the Dance. I'll feel a lot more comfortable with 22 wins.

Of course, first things first. We need to beat Texas tonight.

 

[WTSooner]

It would be interesting to see how many teams 1-2 games above .500 from the 5th or 6th rated conference got in each year WT.

I started to put something together, but here is the problem I ran into. Most of the other conferences that finished 5th or 6th in recent years, their teams that were .500 or a game or two above, were, in most cases, terrible during their OOC portion. Of course a team that went 9-7 in the ACC, but had 7-8 additional losses out of conference didn't make the Dance. Seems like that is the case with a lot of those teams. There were a lot of 9-7 teams that did make it though. The ones that didn't stink in the OOC portion. OU did "well enough" OOC, that I truly believe 10-8, and a Big 12 Tourney win, gets us in. I just don't see any way we don't get 5 teams in, and I think OU will be in the top 5, with however many conference wins we get.

Three of the last five .500 in conference play Big 12 teams have went Dancing. The two that missed had more OOC losses than OU has this year, and probably much worse RPI's than what OU would end up with. I'm willing to concede .500 won't get it done this year b/c of our conference being down some, but it's not down enough that it'll take an additional 3 wins over .500 to get us there. I still say 10-8 with a win in the Big 12 Tourney, and we are in rather comfortably, so long as we finish 5th in the conference.

 

[garyeb2]

I'm sure that someone will correct me if they think I'm wrong. Conference ranking and Rpi are are well and good. But, since when did the politics of the slection process get eliminated.

The politics favor not just OU, but any upper division finisher from a BCS conference.