Softball

So, the Big Twelve gets two in the CWS. Meanwhile, the favorite was beaten in Gainesville by Oklahoma State, the third-place team, as Needham shut out Barnhill. The Big Twelve must be better than they think.

I have seen better defense by OU, Baylor, and OSU (as well as Texas) than I have been watching throughout the season on the SEC network. They really seem to need to slap and run more than the Big Twelve or Pac Twelve.
 
By the way, the RPI and the committee took a bath today.

#15 (10 RPI) Baylor over #2 (5 RPI) Arizona
#13 ((14 RPI) LSU over #4 (7 RPI) FSU
#9 A&M over #8 Tennessee

Half of the road teams have won - that has NEVER happened before and we still have Utah vs. Washington.

It looks to me like the Big 12 is the best conference.

SEC 13 teams and only 3 in WCWS only one 1 Super against another conference.

Pac 12 8 teams and only 3 in WCWS

Big 12 4 teams and 2 in the WCWS with both wins on the ROAD. We are batting .500 and OSU and Texas both got to the regional final with OSU beating Florida in Gainesville in a game.

Lauren Chamberlain is STILL the Home Run Queen!!!!!!!
 
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Florida is darned good. Yes, fOSU took one of three from them in the regional, but the other two games the Cowgirls were decisively beaten, each time by way of a one-hit shutout.

I agree that Florida is good but OU beat fOSU - 4 times including 3-0 in Stillwater, 6-2 in Norman, 1-0 in Stillwater a No Hitter to boot, and 2-0 in OKC to win the Big 12 Tourney. That is giving up 2 runs to fOSU in 28 innings.
 
By the way, the RPI and the committee took a bath today.

#15 (10 RPI) Baylor over #2 (5 RPI) Arizona
#13 ((14 RPI) LSU over #4 (7 RPI) FSU
#9 A&M over #8 Tennessee

Half of the road teams have won - that has NEVER happened before and we still have Utah vs. Washington.

It looks to me like the Big 12 is the best conference.

SEC 13 teams and only 3 in WCWS only one 1 Super against another conference.

Pac 12 8 teams and only 3 in WCWS

Big 12 4 teams and 2 in the WCWS with both wins on the ROAD. We are batting .500 and OSU and Texas both got to the regional final with OSU beating Florida in Gainesville in a game.

Lauren Chamberlain is STILL the Home Run Queen!!!!!!!

:woot
 
By the way, the RPI and the committee took a bath today.

#15 (10 RPI) Baylor over #2 (5 RPI) Arizona
#13 ((14 RPI) LSU over #4 (7 RPI) FSU
#9 A&M over #8 Tennessee

Half of the road teams have won - that has NEVER happened before and we still have Utah vs. Washington.

It looks to me like the Big 12 is the best conference.

SEC 13 teams and only 3 in WCWS only one 1 Super against another conference.

Pac 12 8 teams and only 3 in WCWS

Big 12 4 teams and 2 in the WCWS with both wins on the ROAD. We are batting .500 and OSU and Texas both got to the regional final with OSU beating Florida in Gainesville in a game.

Lauren Chamberlain is STILL the Home Run Queen!!!!!!!

I agree with everything you say except per rpi #8 A&M was ranked above #9 Tennessee. The seedings flipped them with Tennessee seeded #8 and A&M seeded #9.

Also according to RPI rankings all of the regionals went according to the rankings with all 16 seeds making the super-regional. Pending the results of Washington vs Utah no favorite has lost except for FSU, Arizona and Auburn. That is 1 (Auburn) of 13 teams from the SEC and 1 (Arizona) of 8 from the Pac 12 failed to meet achieve their rpi ranking.

19 of 21 teams (90.5%) from the two power conferences playing to their projected rpi ranking identifies a ranking system being spot on to date.

I do not know that the B12 looks like the best conference or not but the Sooner through the super-regional games to date looks to be the most complete team I have seen and I have watched every game to date. Additionally going forward the Sooners will be the most experienced in WCWS and that could be important with regard to handling the pressure of the pending tournament.

I also like Oregon and Florida's pitching. I think OU, Oregon and Florida appear to be the better teams. But generally it is the team that gets the hottest next week that will win.
 
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This OU team is amazing. Last year we started 5 freshmen. This year we have only 1 senior. Let's go up to OKC and get it done!
 
I agree with everything you say except per rpi #8 A&M was ranked above #9 Tennessee. The seedings flipped them with Tennessee seeded #8 and A&M seeded #9.

Also according to RPI rankings all of the regionals went according to the rankings with all 16 seeds making the super-regional. Pending the results of Washington vs Utah no favorite has lost except for FSU, Arizona and Auburn. That is 1 (Auburn) of 13 teams from the SEC and 1 (Arizona) of 8 from the Pac 12 failed to meet achieve their rpi ranking.

19 of 21 teams (90.5%) from the two power conferences playing to their projected rpi ranking identifies a ranking system being spot on to date.

I do not know that the B12 looks like the best conference or not but the Sooner through the super-regional games to date looks to be the most complete team I have seen and I have watched every game to date. Additionally going forward the Sooners will be the most experienced in WCWS and that could be important with regard to handling the pressure of the pending tournament.

I also like Oregon and Florida's pitching. I think OU, Oregon and Florida appear to be the better teams. But generally it is the team that gets the hottest next week that will win.

Whoa, lets slow down those horses!!! Baylor and Alabama won their regionals without being the highest RPI. Ole Miss and Kentucky were not in the RPI Top 16 so you have to either give credit to the committee or the big advantage of home field which surprisingly gave way in the Supers. As for Florida - if fOSU can beat them so can OU.
 
Whoa, lets slow down those horses!!! Baylor and Alabama won their regionals without being the highest RPI. Ole Miss and Kentucky were not in the RPI Top 16 so you have to either give credit to the committee or the big advantage of home field which surprisingly gave way in the Supers. As for Florida - if fOSU can beat them so can OU.

Speedy the rpi is not designed to predict the winner of any game. The system is designed to identify for softball the 16 top teams and seed them accordingly. The committee chose to usurp the rpi ranking and modify their seedings by significantly dropping #10 Baylor to #15, #11 Minnesota, #13 James Madison and #16 La. Lafayette three spots or more in the committee seeding thereby eliminating Minnesota, James Madison and La Lafayette totally from the seedings.

In the final rpi #10 Baylor beat #13 James Madison and #14 LSU beat #16 Louisiana (Lafayette) in their regionals. Both Baylor and LSU had the highest rpi. Moreover citing an example of a failure by the rpi means nothing. For every failure you can identify I can identify 2,3 or 4 successes. Ranking systems are based on probability theory not absolute results.

The seeding committee also elevated #7 FSU to #4, #12 OU to #10, #5 Arizona to #2. In fact of the 16 seeded teams only Florida was both ranked by the rpi and seeded the same. 7 teams were moved 1 postion, 3 were moved 2 positions, 2 were moved 3 positions and 4 were moved 4 positions or more.

I earlier identified Utah, Mississippi and Kentucky as teams seeded contrary to their rpi ranking and mentioned the committee may have logically elevated from #18 Mississippi in the rpi to the #12 seed because of their winning the SEC tournament. In my opinion neither Utah, Kentucky or Ole Miss should have hosted regionals. I say use the rpi not the seeding committee's bias.

Of course any team can beat any team. Identifying game winners is not the goal of the rpi. Mathematical calculations are worthless at projecting individual event results. What it can effectively do is project the likelihood of #1 seed advancing further in the tournament than a #2 seed and a #3 seed further than a #4 seed and a #5 seed than a #6 seed, etc over a long period of time (see attached link). The numbers can really tell you nothing more. The rpi cannot tell who is going to finish 8th, 6th or 1st. It can only tell you the probability of each seeding finishing in a position.

As with all probabilities calculation there is a probability of being a winner and of being a loser. Over time those seeding have proven to be very accurate. For any individual year the discrepancy can vary widely,up or down, but the overall average for all the years will be very close.

Too many people try to or think they can use numbers to identify outcomes that they cannot produce. The odds don't tell you if you are going o win a bet the odds tell you if you made a thousand bets you would win very close to the number of times the odds projected. That's all.

For the tournament YTD the rpi projected 16 of 16 regional winners and 5 of 8 super-regional winners. That is a projection accuracy of 75% on 21 of 28 winners. Not bad and probably close to the norm. Perhaps slightly higher than the norm.

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/softball/d1/ncaa-womens-softball-rpi

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/softball/d1/ncaa-womens-softball-rpi
 
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SoonerSpock, I get it that you're the only one with any real intelligence on this board. In every one of your responses you question the original poster's intelligence. WE all get it. You are the brainiac, and the rest of us are mental midgets.

But, just like you accuse us of, you never really try to answer the specific questions posed to you. You deflect, attack, and change the subject. You should be a politician.

You cite all of Tennessee's wins v top 25. The problem is that anyone with any real knowledge of softball knows that Kentucky was a marginal top 25 at best, And Ole Miss and South Carolina had no business being in the top 25. Heck, South Carolina shouldn't have been in the top 50. So the top SEC teams are getting all this benefit, that should not inure to them.

Non-conference schedule is important, because it, theoretically, is how you get into the top 40, top 25. How can you justify teams that racked up wins v the Sisters of the Poor getting highly ranked, and then benefitting their conference brethren for the rest of the season.

OU played 10 P5 conference foes in it's 37 game non-conference schedule. Plus BYU and Tulsa, two high mid majors. That is vastly more than the lower half of the SEC. Yes they racked up wins, but not those that justify the RPI rankings they got.

IMO, the SOS factors should be weakened, road/home factors be added, and probably factors added for playing P5 non-conference opponents. I think these type of tweaks would yield a more equitable result, that makes sense to knowledgeable softball people.

The Big 12 was clearly underrated in the RPI. As a whole, the Big 12 outperformed the mighty SEC and to some extent, the Pac 12, v their RPI.

And then there's the committee. I don't know anything about their composition, but clearly ULaLa and Minnesota got screwed.

Next time try answering my questions as to how you justify the bottom 5 of the SEC being ranked as high as they were, in the RPI. Don't cite the RPI, use real softball data, like who they played, and how they played, to justify. Do that, instead of babbling on about how, using RPI data, the RPI worked so well, and maybe you'll find others on this board more accepting of your arguments. Don't, and we'll mostly look at your posts as babble.
 
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SoonerSpock, I get it that you're the only one with any real intelligence on this board. In every one of your responses you question the original poster's intelligence. WE all get it. You are the brainiac, and the rest of us are mental midgets.

But, just like you accuse us of, you never really try to answer the specific questions posed to you. You deflect, attack, and change the subject. You should be a politician.

You cite all of Tennessee's wins v top 25. The problem is that anyone with any real knowledge of softball knows that Kentucky was a marginal top 25 at best, And Ole Miss and South Carolina had no business being in the top 25. Heck, South Carolina shouldn't have been in the top 50. So the top SEC teams are getting all this benefit, that should not inure to them.

Non-conference schedule is important, because it, theoretically, is how you get into the top 40, top 25. How can you justify teams that racked up wins v the Sisters of the Poor getting highly ranked, and then benefitting their conference brethren for the rest of the season.

OU played 10 P5 conference foes in it's 37 game non-conference schedule. Plus BYU and Tulsa, two high mid majors. That is vastly more than the lower half of the SEC. Yes they racked up wins, but not those that justify the RPI rankings they got.

IMO, the SOS factors should be weakened, road/home factors be added, and probably factors added for playing P5 non-conference opponents. I think these type of tweaks would yield a more equitable result, that makes sense to knowledgeable softball people.

The Big 12 was clearly underrated in the RPI. As a whole, the Big 12 outperformed the mighty SEC and to some extent, the Pac 12, v their RPI.

And then there's the committee. I don't know anything about their composition, but clearly ULaLa and Minnesota got screwed.

Next time try answering my questions as to how you justify the bottom 5 of the SEC being ranked as high as they were, in the RPI. Don't cite the RPI, use real softball data, like who they played, to justify. Do that, instead of babbling on about how, using RPI data, the RPI worked so well, and maybe you'll find others on this board more accepting of your arguments. Don't, and we'll mostly look at your posts as babble.


Amazing! Yes, Kentucky, Ole Miss and South Carolina were marginal top 25 teams. But Ole Miss won the SEC tourney and had 10 wins over teams that appeared in the super-regional and 4 wins over WCWS participants. Kentucky had 6 wins over super-regional participants and 2 over WCWS participants. Kentucky had 4 wins over WCWS participants. You cannot pretend those wins do not exist. Who should have replaced them in the rankings other than James Madison, Louisiana, Laf and Minnesota that were displaced not by the rpi but the subjective committee. Bad mistake!

You say the Big 12 was under ranked in the rpi. OSU was the #3 ranked Big 12 team. They were 3-16 against ranked teams and and 2-5 vs the top 10. #4 Texas was 1-13 against ranked teams and 1-8 against top 10 teams. Or should more merit be given to beating the Big 12 sisters of the poor?

Yes Minnesota and Louisiana (Lafeyette) got screwed but it was the seeding committee that screwed them. Ditto James Madison. The rpi had Minnesota ranked #11 and Louisiana #16 eligible to host a regional. Unfortunately the human factor thought otherwise and elevated Utah, Kentucky and Ole Miss.

How is scheduling non-conference P5 teams not an attempt to do the same thing that SOS is monitoring except to more subjectivity into your scheduling. Surely we don't need to be scheduling Maryland, Iowa, Northwestern, Va Tech, Pittsburgh and Stanford because they are P5. Better to schedule teams projected to be highly ranked regardless of conference.

I will repeat again. Mathematical systems designed to prognosticate are normally designed with an error of estimation factor that will historically prove to be slightly more than 2/3 accurate and 1/3 inaccurate. Teams that do not perform as expected are part of the error factor and accounted for in the analysis.

The rpi system does just what you request it weighs 25% on WP, 50% of its rating on OWP and 25% on OOWP with additional weighted bonuses and penalties for wins and losses against quality opposition (see Speedy's listing of the formula above). By the way the rpi had OU ranked higher than every SEC team but Florida, Auburn, A&M and Tennessee. And while we may be a better team than all of them we did not have the performance on the field to warrant the higher ranking. Gut feel doesn't count when you are trying to be objective.

Combine the regional result and the super-regional results and the rpi was correct 21 times and wrong 7 times in 2017. Right on course with the desired accuracy results.

Nothing wrong with the tweaks you suggest. There definitely should be a weighting for road, home and neutral games like baseball presently has. Ditto margin of victory. Probably others neither of us can identify. Hence the need for the system to be dynamic. All that can be evaluated is how accurate was the system in projecting results after the fact.
 
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Amazing! Yes, Kentucky, Ole Miss and South Carolina were marginal top 25 teams. But Ole Miss won the SEC tourney and had 10 wins over teams that appeared in the super-regional and 4 wins over WCWS participants. Kentucky had 6 wins over super-regional participants and 2 over WCWS participants. Kentucky had 4 wins over WCWS participants. You cannot pretend those wins do not exist. Who should have replaced them in the rankings other than James Madison, Louisiana, Laf and Minnesota that were displaced not by the rpi but the subjective committee. Bad mistake!

You say the Big 12 was under ranked in the rpi. OSU was the #3 ranked Big 12 team. They were 3-16 against ranked teams and and 2-5 vs the top 10. #4 Texas was 1-13 against ranked teams and 1-8 against top 10 teams. Or should more merit be given to beating the Big 12 sisters of the poor?

Yes Minnesota and Louisiana (Lafeyette) got screwed but it was the seeding committee that screwed them. Ditto James Madison. The rpi had Minnesota ranked #11 and Louisiana #16 eligible to host a regional. Unfortunately the human factor thought otherwise and elevated Utah, Kentucky and Ole Miss.

How is scheduling non-conference P5 teams not an attempt to do the same thing that SOS is monitoring except to more subjectivity into your scheduling. Surely we don't need to be scheduling Maryland, Iowa, Northwestern, Va Tech, Pittsburgh and Stanford because they are P5. Better to schedule teams projected to be highly ranked regardless of conference.

I will repeat again. Mathematical systems designed to prognosticate are normally designed with an error of estimation factor that will historically prove to be slightly more than 2/3 accurate and 1/3 inaccurate. Teams that do not perform as expected are part of the error factor and accounted for in the analysis.

The rpi system does just what you request it weighs 25% on WP, 50% of its rating on OWP and 25% on OOWP with additional weighted bonuses and penalties for wins and losses against quality opposition (see Speedy's listing of the formula above). By the way the rpi had OU ranked higher than every SEC team but Florida, Auburn, A&M and Tennessee. And while we may be a better team than all of them we did not have the performance on the field to warrant the higher ranking. Gut feel doesn't count when you are trying to be objective.

Combine the regional result and the super-regional results and the rpi was correct 21 times and wrong 7 times in 2017. Right on course with the desired accuracy results.

Nothing wrong with the tweaks you suggest. There definitely should be a weighting for road, home and neutral games like baseball presently has. Ditto margin of victory. Probably others neither of us can identify. Hence the need for the system to be dynamic. All that can be evaluated is how accurate was the system in projecting results after the fact.

Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah!

You still didn't answer my questions. More of your rpi data, to support your rpi accuracy argument.

Hosting had more to do with the RPI accuracy, as you state it, than the accuracy of the rpi. Non-hosting SEC teams did crap in the regional round. None of them made the regional finals. In the super regionals, the SEC went 2-7 v. non-SEC opponents. I would conclude that they were overrated from those results.

Big 12 won two regionals, and went to the regional finals in two others, playing the hosting teams toe-to-toe, including an if-needed game with the number one seed. Then they won two super regionals, both on the road.

The above tells me that the Big 12 outperformed the SEC, which tells me the rpi overrated the SEC. I don't care what rpi data you want to cite, those results override them.

Now, in the WCWS, OU and Baylor are two of the three lowest RPI rated teams. Do you think they will go out first?

But I can see you're never going to give credence to other arguments, because you're omniscient.

I swear, you should go into politics. You've got the M.O. mastered.
 
But remember, he's got a master's in statistics. :ez-laugh:
 
Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah!

You still didn't answer my questions. More of your rpi data, to support your rpi accuracy argument.

Hosting had more to do with the RPI accuracy, as you state it, than the accuracy of the rpi. Non-hosting SEC teams did crap in the regional round. None of them made the regional finals. In the super regionals, the SEC went 2-7 v. non-SEC opponents. I would conclude that they were overrated from those results.

Big 12 won two regionals, and went to the regional finals in two others, playing the hosting teams toe-to-toe, including an if-needed game with the number one seed. Then they won two super regionals, both on the road.

The above tells me that the Big 12 outperformed the SEC, which tells me the rpi overrated the SEC. I don't care what rpi data you want to cite, those results override them.

Now, in the WCWS, OU and Baylor are two of the three lowest RPI rated teams. Do you think they will go out first?

But I can see you're never going to give credence to other arguments, because you're omniscient.

I swear, you should go into politics. You've got the M.O. mastered.

Yep!
 
Statistics - the art of using numbers to prove anything you want.
Many will probably remember the old saying, "statistics are like a cheap whore, once you throw them down there, you can do about anything you want with them".
 
Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah!

You still didn't answer my questions. More of your rpi data, to support your rpi accuracy argument.

Hosting had more to do with the RPI accuracy, as you state it, than the accuracy of the rpi. Non-hosting SEC teams did crap in the regional round. None of them made the regional finals. In the super regionals, the SEC went 2-7 v. non-SEC opponents. I would conclude that they were overrated from those results.

Big 12 won two regionals, and went to the regional finals in two others, playing the hosting teams toe-to-toe, including an if-needed game with the number one seed. Then they won two super regionals, both on the road.

The above tells me that the Big 12 outperformed the SEC, which tells me the rpi overrated the SEC. I don't care what rpi data you want to cite, those results override them.

Now, in the WCWS, OU and Baylor are two of the three lowest RPI rated teams. Do you think they will go out first?

But I can see you're never going to give credence to other arguments, because you're omniscient.

I swear, you should go into politics. You've got the M.O. mastered.

Wrong. I specifically answered everyone of your questions by providing results of games played instead of worthless opinions. I just did not try to argue without using fact and stating only ones feelings.

Multiple times I have stated I too think home field is a positive factor in determining winners but most definitely not the primary determining factor you state it is. I say pitching, hitting and fielding are the primary determinants. You can throw in a little luck as well.

I further stated that if there is going to be a home site advantage to accommodate TV moguls and put fans in the seats that advantage should go to the top rated not the lower rated teams.

I have previously stated that the Big 12 was the surprise of the tournament but I still see the Pac 12 as the best conference in the tournament with #2(rpi) Oregon, #3 UCLA and #4 Washington still alive in the WCWS.

While the committee's seeding differ the rpi amazingly has its #1, #2, #3, #4, #8 teams still in the tournament. Along with the #10, #12 and #14 team. Amazingly the biggest surprise per the rpi is LSU, a SEC team.

The SEC has performed about on par winning all the match ups they were expected to win except Auburn and losing all the mach ups they were supposed to lose except LSU's win over FSU. The rpi projected 3 SEC teams in WCWS and the SEC has 3 teams in the WCWS.

Yes, I think Baylor and the loser of the LSU vs A&M loser's game will be the first two out as it is impossible for OU and Baylor to be the first two out. One team from each side of the bracket will be the first two out.

I see winning the WCWS as similar to winning a marathon unless you can open with 3 wins and give your ace a couple days rest before playing the finals. In my opinion UCLA, Washington and Baylor are too dependent on their ace to win a marathon WCWS.

I see the favorites as Florida, OU and Oregon probably in that order. Florida has too much pitching, OU is the most complete team and Oregon's top two pitchers are freshmen that I see succumbing to the pressure of their first WCWS.

But my opinion about who is going to win is somewhat like yours neither is worth a crap. My mind says you pick Florida, my heart says OU. But both could easily be gone by the second or third day.

Over the last 10 years the #1 or #2 seeds has won 5 tournaments, the #3 and #4 seeds have won 2 tournaments the #5-#8 seeds have won 3 tournament. No team seeded below #8 has won the tournament. A strong testament to the accuracy of the rpi.

Picking 70% of the champions using 4 picks from a field of 64 for 10 years is much more than just acceptable prognostication.

Hopefully #10 OU will be the first.
 
Many will probably remember the old saying, "statistics are like a cheap whore, once you throw them down there, you can do about anything you want with them".

Yep that is right when most use them as ignorance is bliss for them. The results when used properly are 180 from that.
 
Enough about all of this RPI crap.
I just looked at Weather.com's projection for the weather in OKC starting Thursday, and theres a 60% chance of scattered t-storms on Thursday, a 100% chance of Friday morning t-storms, and a 60% chance of afternoon t-storms on Saturday.
It seems like every year, we get storms to mess with the schedule.
Our game is the last one scheduled for Thursday (8 PM Central Time), so who knows?
 
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