Has there been a statement from the team as to the reason that Sydney has
not played a couple of games? I believe she didn't play in one and then did and then didn't? Do you know if she has tweaked something and this is precautionary?
OU still #3 in the RPI behind Florida and Michigan and in front of Auburn and Alabama.
Alabama, Auburn, Florida State and Oregon still have a tough schedule ahead of them that could help them in the RPI if they win out. Conversely a couple of losses would be detrimental to their RPI. I would think all of them losing 2 games is remotely possible. Alabama has series at South Carolina and Georgia. Auburn is at Tennessee and plays aTm. Florida State has two games with Florida in Tallahassee. Oregon host Arizona and Utah and goes to California. I would like to see Tennessee take two of three from Auburn or the Vols and the aggies each take one, one of Bama's two losses be to South Carolina and Florida take two from FSU.
If we could get those losses I think we would lock the #3 seed provided we win out.
I couldn't argue with that logic, Spock. But I don't really understand how RPI is figured, so I won't be surprised how it plays out when all is said and done.
We made a huge jump in RPI when we swept Baylor and Texas. Both are good teams, but only Baylor had a high RPI. We haven't lost a game since, and our last four wins included a high-profile 9-0 road shutout of a Tennessee team that had a high RPI and had not lost a home game all season (18-0). Still, it's understandable that our RPI remained static since the only two teams above us continued to win as well.
If our Sooners win out to finish the regular season, I'm almost convinced that any loss by either Michigan or Florida will move us up a spot in RPI. A loss by both of those teams could hand us the #1 spot in the RPI.
There may be a chance that OU could jump Michigan with a wolverine loss but I think there is virtually no chance to jump Florida if they lose a game based on how RPI is calculated.
An institution’s RPI ranking consists of three factors that are weighted as follows:
1. I Winning Percentage -- 25 percent of the RPI
2. Opponent Strength of Schedule -- 50 percent of the RPI
3. Opponents’ Opponent Strength of Schedule -- 25 percent of the RPI
OU possibly could jump Michigan if their loss was to Central Michigan or Rutgers but a loss to Penn State which trails Michigan in the B10 by only 2 games would not be a bad loss.
If you look at the Nitty Gritty report attached you will also see all the teams record against teams ranked 1-25, 26-50, 51-100 and 101-150. Both Florida 28-3 and Michigan 23-4 have a much better record against the top 50 teams than does OU 18-7. Michigan does have a bad loss to North Dakota State and another bad loss to Central Michigan or Rutgers might allow the Sooners to jump them. Florida like OU has no bad losses plus they play in the SEC and that means something in the RPI.
For instance look a Alabama and Texas A&M. Bama is 13-7 against top 25 teams and still rank #4 in RPI because six of those losses are to SEC teams plus OU. aTm is 6-12 against top 25 teams but all of their wins and all but one of their losses are to SEC teams so they are ranked #22 in the RPI and #18 in the coaches poll. Every team in the RPI top 15 with a losing record against top 25 teams is from the SEC except Louisiana Lafayette and they had a winning record until losing 3 games to Florida this past weekend.
Playing the B12 hurts OU's RPI big time. We have 3 teams ranked in the top 35 the SEC has 12 teams. Fortunately the Sooners have been good enough to overcome factors #2 and #3 above.
https://rpiarchive.ncaa.org/Stats Library/SB Nitty Gritty thru April 24 2016.pdf
http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/softball/d1/usa-todaynfca-coaches
Good post, Spock, and you made some very good points in respect to the way RPI is calculated and OU's chances of jumping Michigan or Florida in the RPI standings.
The one thing on which I can't agree is your belief that playing in the Big 12 "hurts OU's RPI big time." The facts say otherwise. Only two teams in all of softball have RPIs better than our Sooners. And those teams' RPI is obviously better because both teams have better overall records than OU and more wins over Top 50 teams.
In reality OU's RPI has in no way suffered from the Sooners playing in the Big 12. That is partly because Patty plays a strong out-of-conference schedule and wins a majority of those games, and partly due to OU's history and tradition, which allow the Sooners to start the season with better numbers (ranking and RPI) than many other deserving teams. The same thing applies to all those highly rated SEC teams. Those teams start the season with the top rankings/RPI, which they are able to maintain throughout the season because they are constantly playing teams whose rankings and RPI are also artificially inflated.
Let us agree to disagree. OU playing in the Big 12 where about half of their schedule is against Big 12 opponents a few also ran non-conference opponents that play low strength of schedules and their opponents low strength of schedule definitely negatively impacts OU's RPI ranking.
Alabama for example only played top 25 ranked non-conference opponents in James Madison, Arizona and OU. Auburn played only James Madison and Florida State. This allows them to virtually assure themselves of no losses in non-conference games but no more than one loss. Hence maintaining or increasing their high RPI for being a SEC school prior to conference play.
OU on the otherhand must load up their non-conference schedule with highly ranked opponents early to get the required strength of schedule and often have their RPI fall because of several earlylosses (6 this year). Initially they are hurt in the RPI ranking by these numerous losses.
Moreover, once the conference season starts OU starts to recover because of the weak B12 schedule and SEC schools falter somewhat because of conference losses. However the conference schedule continues to work to SEC schools favor in that they are playing their strongest schedule top 25 wins late in the season preparing them for post season play.
OU's conference season works just the opposite we are facing weaker opponents toward seasons end and not being pushed to prepare for post season at the same level SEC schools are pushed.
I think playing in the B12 is a definite disadvantage to preparing for post season play and achieving the highest RPI. Where I think it works to our advantage is generally winning the conference and being guaranteed to host a regional. I also think it is probably slightly easier to host a super regional as B12 champions then it is to finish in the top 3-4 of the SEC that is necessary to be eligible to host a super regional. Although last year the SEC hosted 7 regionals and 5 super regionals.
Fortunately Patty knows how to overcome the burden of the B12 strength of schedule and prepare her team as best she can for post season play. Few if any could be as successful as she is in her circumstances. Props to Patty.
http://www.rolltide.com/sports/w-softbl/sched/alab-w-softbl-sched.html
https://rpiarchive.ncaa.org/Stats Library/SB Nitty Gritty thru April 24 2016.pdf
http://www.auburntigers.com/sports/w-softbl/sched/aub-w-softbl-sched.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_NCAA_Division_I_Softball_Tournament
We actually seem to "agree to agree" on most points, Spock. :ez-laugh:
But I must admit I'm at a loss to understand your contention that playing in the Big 12 hurts OU's RPI rating. OU's RPI currently is third best in the nation, and it reached that lofty spot with OU playing – you got it – in the Big 12 Conference.
OU's RPI dropped (and rightfully so) when the Sooners lost a few games early in the season to Top 20 opponents. However, OU eventually righted the ship and started winning on a regular basis. A win over mighty Alabama obviously gave the Sooners a boost, but OU's meteoric rise to No. 3 in the national RPI occurred when the Sooners swept three-game series against Baylor and Texas on successive weekends. Both of those are Big 12 opponents, as you well know. So, tell me again exactly how it was harmful to OU's RPI by playing (and beating) teams in the Big 12?
I do agree that OU's RPI would fall if they were losing those games to Big 12 foes. However, I believe the same holds true for teams in every other conference, with the exception of the SEC. Teams outside the SEC lose conference games and their ranking/RPI drops. SEC teams lose conference games and their ranking/RPI remains high – because, as everyone knows, it's never a shame to lose a game to a SEC foe. This is exactly the same type of thinking that virtually guarantees the SEC has multiple football teams ranked in the Top 10 throughout the football season.
Also, I don't believe SEC teams should be rewarded for playing and beating weak/unranked teams in nonconference play. Why, for example, should a SEC team's RPI jump up a spot or two when they defeat N.E. Podunk State at home, but a Big 12 team's RPI fall after a narrow loss on the road to a Top 10 team?
Those are some of the reasons that I believe the softball rankings and RPI are more subjective than objective and in most cases favor schools in high population areas of the country. On the other hand, I believe that the OU softball program is strong enough to overcome the bias that gives certain schools/conferences a distinct advantage.
I get what you (SoonerSpock) are saying, and I think we basically agree and are saying almost the same things.
We differ in that you believe the Big 12 is a crappy conference and is therefore holding OU back and keeping the Sooners from enjoying the success and glory that's available to teams in the SEC. While I agree that the Big 12 is the weaker conference, I have seen absolutely no evidence that OU's membership in the Big 12 has adversely affected its ranking, its RPI, its recruiting, or its ability to perform on a level that's equal to, or better than, any program in the country.
Your argument that being a member of the Big 12 somehow holds OU's RPI down would be easier to defend if the Sooners did not currently have the third-highest RPI in college softball.
I get what you (SoonerSpock) are saying, and I think we basically agree and are saying almost the same things.
We differ in that you believe the Big 12 is a crappy conference and is therefore holding OU back and keeping the Sooners from enjoying the success and glory that's available to teams in the SEC. While I agree that the Big 12 is the weaker conference, I have seen absolutely no evidence that OU's membership in the Big 12 has adversely affected its ranking, its RPI, its recruiting, or its ability to perform on a level that's equal to, or better than, any program in the country.
Your argument that being a member of the Big 12 somehow holds OU's RPI down would be easier to defend if the Sooners did not currently have the third-highest RPI in college softball.