A PSA about UTSA

[pnkranger]

Just to avoid any overreactions similar to the North Texas game: UTSA is not a cupcake. Their ken pom numbers are not great, but they are not Maryland Eastern Shore or Coppin State. They are well coached (Steve Henson) and have some athletic bodies and good shooters. Similar to North Texas, except they'll play our tempo.

They beat East Central by 46 points.
They lost to Tulsa by 4
They lost to 7-1 Bradley by 2

I don't care if the line is -28, we won't win this game by more than 15 points, and they could absolutely shock us if we don't play great defense.

The only teams on our schedule we should have expected to beat by 28+ were:

Omaha (we didn't)
Northwestern State (we haven't played them yet)

Our schedule this year is weird. Typically there are 5 or 6 true cupcakes that you can beat by 30, and 6 solid teams, with maybe 1 or 2 of those ranked/major conference teams.

We're playing 6 games against major conference teams/ranked teams. 4 games against solid/okay teams that are not outmatched physically (Portland, Ball State, North Texas, and UTSA). Then two games against cupcakes.

 

[Swans]

They’re also coached by Lon’s successor.

 

[chuckb]

The team should expect to play much better than it did vs North Texas and OU should definitely win by more than 15.

 

[Swans]

UTSA loses to Utah Valley 88-80.

 

[Soonerinkc]

not saying it isn't true but ya sound like the ku announcers talking about texas southern (0-8 ) toledo (4-3) being "really good teams" trying to bolster ku's schedule...

OU should win, maybe not by 30, but honestly anything less than 20 I wouldn't expect.

but either way I'll still be excited to see how they do.

 

[stormspencer]

Just to avoid any overreactions similar to the North Texas game: UTSA is not a cupcake. Their ken pom numbers are not great, but they are not Maryland Eastern Shore or Coppin State. They are well coached (Steve Henson) and have some athletic bodies and good shooters. Similar to North Texas, except they'll play our tempo.

They beat East Central by 46 points.
They lost to Tulsa by 4
They lost to 7-1 Bradley by 2

I don't care if the line is -28, we won't win this game by more than 15 points, and they could absolutely shock us if we don't play great defense.

The only teams on our schedule we should have expected to beat by 28+ were:

Omaha (we didn't)
Northwestern State (we haven't played them yet)

Our schedule this year is weird. Typically there are 5 or 6 true cupcakes that you can beat by 30, and 6 solid teams, with maybe 1 or 2 of those ranked/major conference teams.

We're playing 6 games against major conference teams/ranked teams. 4 games against solid/okay teams that are not outmatched physically (Portland, Ball State, North Texas, and UTSA). Then two games against cupcakes.

I don't think there was a big over-reaction to North Texas. We were favored by 28 and played with a very poor energy level on the defensive end. Adding to that, NT made some 3s....it happens. Occasionally, bad teams have good nights. It was NOT because NT is "better than their metrics or better than their record would suggest".....that is nonsense. For gawd's sake, they lost to UT Rio Grande Valley by more points. I loathe the narrative that when we don't play well against a very bad team, then that team automatically must be better than we thought.....in order to justify our poor performance. And if we played NT again, we should win by 28 if we play well.

With respect to UTSA, which is another poor team, let's not start attempting to lower the bar based upon our experience with NT....just in case we don't play well again. I haven't checked the line, but we should be somewhere around a 19-20 pt favorite. Whether we "cover" or not is irrelevant to me, but this game should in no way go down to the wire like NT. Having said that, I do expect to see a much better effort level and a comfortable win.

I realize stats aren't everything, but Vegas and Kenpom know a lot more than all of us.

 

[coolm]

I realize stats aren't everything, but Vegas and Kenpom know a lot more than all of us.

Vegas spreads are based on equalizing betting, not expert analysis regarding the teams and the game. Thus it is the perceptions of the team that rule and not keen insight. If a bunch of people sit around saying "they're just UNT" then the spread will be higher. A self-fulfilling prophecy. Kenpom's stats are relatively useless with such a small data sampling for the current season.

Guards rule college basketball. If you have good guardplay then you will do well. If not then you wont.

 

[jake_swivel]

Vegas spreads are based on equalizing betting, not expert analysis regarding the teams and the game. Thus it is the perceptions of the team that rule and not keen insight. If a bunch of people sit around saying "they're just UNT" then the spread will be higher. A self-fulfilling prophecy. Kenpom's stats are relatively useless with such a small data sampling for the current season.

Guards rule college basketball. If you have good guardplay then you will do well. If not then you wont.

Almost true with vegas, but you also have to consider that they initially set the line that the public then influences with bets. It’s in vegas’ best interest to get the line close in the beginning so the betting doesn’t get too out of whack on either side. So there is analysis on the front end, and they are generally pretty good at their job.

 

[sperry]

Vegas spreads are based on equalizing betting, not expert analysis regarding the teams and the game. Thus it is the perceptions of the team that rule and not keen insight. If a bunch of people sit around saying "they're just UNT" then the spread will be higher. A self-fulfilling prophecy. Kenpom's stats are relatively useless with such a small data sampling for the current season.

Guards rule college basketball. If you have good guardplay then you will do well. If not then you wont.

This is not true anymore. There are too many people out there betting algorithmically that will drop a brinks truck down if a line is off. Vegas lines have to be sharp, or a bunch of Ph.D's from MIT will put them out of business.

 

[coolm]

This is not true anymore. There are too many people out there betting algorithmically that will drop a brinks truck down if a line is off. Vegas lines have to be sharp, or a bunch of Ph.D's from MIT will put them out of business.

doesnt matter. unless they are time travelers their prognostication has no bearing on what coach is going to do with his rotations so it means diddly.

 

[oudna]

This is not true anymore. There are too many people out there betting algorithmically that will drop a brinks truck down if a line is off. Vegas lines have to be sharp, or a bunch of Ph.D's from MIT will put them out of business.

The UNT line was ridiculous though. There were a lot of OU fans on Twitter talking about it before tip.