Balance of the Season

[92grad]

I'm probably more than a little disillusioned by the solid win yesterday, but would this get us in the tournament?...

02/09 vs TT - WIN
02/13 @ OSU - WIN
02/17 @ CU - WIN
02/20 vs KSU - WIN
02/22 @ KU - LOSS
02/27 vs BU - WIN
03/01 @ UT - LOSS
03/06 vs A&M - WIN

Regular Season: 18-11 (10-6)

B12 Tournament (est #5 seed)
Thu Night - vs CU or ISU - WIN
Fri Night - vs BU or A&M - LOSS

Final Resume: 19-12 (10-6). Quality wins against UT, KSU, BU, and A&M in conference and no marquee wins out-of-conference.

I think we'd be about 50/50 in this scenario. I know there's never been a B12 team go 10-6 in conference and not get in the tournament, but with our abysmal NC performance, I think we're still on the bubble. AND, this scenario seems to be the absolute best we could hope for. All that with a win on Fri night in the B12 tourney would obviously get us closer.

 

[Krugerfan52]

I think 10-6 would get us in, but 10-6 would be really hard to manage at this point.

 

[OUGenius]

I think 10-6 with 1 win in the Big 12 tourney would definitely get us in...but that's winning every game but at KU and at UT.

Beating Baylor, ATM, KSU at home will be very tough, though do-able.
Beating OSU on the road and CU on the road - very tough but theoretically do-able.

It's possible but realistically, 8-8 or 9-7 is more likely. We could go to the dance at 9-7 depending on who we've beaten and what we do in the Big XII tourney...

 

[Gutter]

How are Arkansas and Arizona doing? Would help if they keep winning...

 

[pnkranger]

I think 10-6 puts us in, simply because that means our record for final 10 games would be: 7-3 against one of the toughest schedules in the nation....

Still, depending on what happens elsewhere, we could be a bubble team with that record and will need some wins in the Big 12 tourney to solidify a spot.

This is not a probable scenario, but anything's possible.

 

[pnkranger]

An addendum...if we get to 20 wins, we're in with no worries. I think that's pretty tough though.

If, IF, we win the next three, we'll be 7-4 in the big 12 with three winnable home games and 2 road games left...after the CU game, I'll feel much more comfortable with who we are.

 

[Hollisp]

If we go to 10-6 we are in no ?. Dont have to win anything in the Big XII tourney.

 

[92grad]

Hollisp...I'd like to think we're a lock at 10-6 as I don't think there's been a B12 team in the history of the league go 10-6 and not get in. However, the abysmal showing in our non-conference schedule has me worried.

In reality, 10-6 is going to be extremely difficult for this team to achieve (as other posters have pointed out), but stranger things have happened. Players just have to continue to buy-in, improve, play hard, and play together. Do that, and let the chips fall where they may!!

 

[campbest]

If we get to 10-6, win at least one game in the conference tourney, we should be in good shape depending on what happens across the country:

WCC - Need Gonzaga to win their conference tourney.

Mountain West - Need either New Mexico of BYU to win their tourney, however, starting to believe this is going to be a three bid league with UNLV locking up the last spot (they crushed BYU this past weekend). Can also be a four bid league if San Diego State can beat BYU/UNLV down the stretch.

Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa has to win their tourney (currently sitting at 21-1).

CUSA - UTEP is most likely in unless they fall apart down the stretch, they need to win their tourney. (UTEP would take precedence over us on the bubble)

Atlantic 10 - Here is the kicker, this conference is having a great year under the radar. In Lunardi's bracket this week, they will have 6 teams in the field of 64, I am expecting them to get a minimum of 4, but most likely 5. That's a lot of bids for a conference of such obscurity.

Pac-10 - Need Cal to win their tourney so it is only a one bid league.

I really do believe this is going to turn into a year like 2006 where you have tons of mid-majors getting into the field of 64...just too much parity this year in college basketball.

 

[Sam]

Alaska is going to haunt us if we get to 9-7 or 10-6.

 

[Crimson King]

I had us at 10-6 (but beating NU and losing to ut) and I think that would get us in, maybe requiring playing Friday night in KC. Beating the Ags will be the key.

 

[OsoonerU]

I'm probably more than a little disillusioned by the solid win yesterday, but would this get us in the tournament?...

02/09 vs TT - WIN
02/13 @ OSU - WIN
02/17 @ CU - WIN
02/20 vs KSU - WIN
02/22 @ KU - LOSS
02/27 vs BU - WIN
03/01 @ UT - LOSS
03/06 vs A&M - WIN

Regular Season: 18-11 (10-6)

B12 Tournament (est #5 seed)
Thu Night - vs CU or ISU - WIN
Fri Night - vs BU or A&M - LOSS

Final Resume: 19-12 (10-6). Quality wins against UT, KSU, BU, and A&M in conference and no marquee wins out-of-conference.

I think we'd be about 50/50 in this scenario. I know there's never been a B12 team go 10-6 in conference and not get in the tournament, but with our abysmal NC performance, I think we're still on the bubble. AND, this scenario seems to be the absolute best we could hope for. All that with a win on Fri night in the B12 tourney would obviously get us closer.

We are 13-9 currently, so if your scenario comes to pass we would be 19-11 going into the Big12 tornament, and 20-12 coming out.

20-12 (10-6) gets us in I think.

 

[seniorsooner]

Just an FYI, there has been a big 12 team go 10-6 and not get in. Kansas State did it a few years back.

 

[DenverSooner]

10-6 winning 7 of your last 10 and 19 wins total from the Big XII gets you in the tournament almost 100% of the time.

 

[SoonerfanTU]

10-6 winning 7 of your last 10 and 19 wins total from the Big XII gets you in the tournament almost 100% of the time.

True, but if ever there were a scenario where it wouldn't, it might be us. No big wins OOC. 3 Terrible losses OOC. We'd just have to sit back and see. And we really couldn't complain either way.

 

[seniorsooner]

The 10-6 KSU team I spoke of above had a season eerily similar to what we've had. They had a terrible non-conference slate with virtually no quality wins prior to conference play.