Baylor or ISU? Who do we want to win?

Not true. If baylor sneaks into third, we'll be the 2 seed.
I looked up the tiebreaking procedures:
Each team's record vs. the team occupying the highest position in the final regular-season standings, and then continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.

When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team's record against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to that group's own tie-breaking procedure), rather than the performance against individual tied teams.
So if Baylor and ISU both finish with 6 losses, it won't matter that Baylor gets a higher seed -- the tiebreaker between OU and Kansas will depend on their combined records against both, which would both be 3-1 at that point.

This does depend on Iowa State winning at Kansas State and at TCU, neither of which is a gimme.
 
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If we tie for first, we will have beat ISU twice, thus finishing first UNLESS Baylor squeaks ahead of ISU.

Yeah, I'm an idiot. For some reason I was considering us losing to ISU and Kansas dropping another game.
 
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