Bubble Watch

[TEvans4Three]

Can't believe I am making this, but here we are.

After the Bubble was decimated the last few days, let's share the news and around from what we hear regarding the Bubble and OU's chances.

I think 2-1 in the SEC Tourney is in the conversation, 3-1 and we have a chance.

MarchMetrix - NCAA Tournament Resume Tracker - Has us with a 22.9% chance of making the tournament
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/ - we are listed in 0 brackets so far
Sooners beat Texas 88-85 in overtime to vault Oklahoma into bubble talk entering conference tournament - YahooSports seems to think we are now in the "Bubble Talk"
Oklahoma suddenly crashes NCAA Tournament bubble after stunning surge - The biased Stormin' in Norman thnks are are bubbly


Lunardi has us as a longshot (But Lunardi typically sucks at this now)


CBSSports - Bracketology Bubble Watch: Risers and fallers following a day of epic carnage for NCAA Tournament hopefuls - Now using mostly computer rankings, has us as FIRST FOUR OUT


Brody with the BartTorvik

 

[TEvans4Three]

SI - Men's Basketball State of the Bubble:
"Oklahoma Sooners
It took overtime after fouling a three-point shooter up 3 at the end of regulation on the road at Texas on Saturday night, but the Sooners snagged a massive Q1 victory to continue the late-season charge for a tournament bid. Oklahoma has now won six of its last eight games, and now has five Quad 1 wins and four Quad 2 wins. There are worse bubble résumés than this one. A handful of SEC tournament wins could have Porter Moser and the Sooners unexpectedly dancing. "


Frogs O War: Bubble Watch
"IMPACT GAME OF THE WEEK:

#57 Oklahoma Sooners (↑5) defeats #59 Missouri Tigers (↓6) - OU is on a three game winning streak, winning five of its last seven and adding major meat to a resume that was barren before February. The 16-point home dismantling of the Tigers has further breathed new life into the Sooners, even if a continued pursuit of an at-large bid remains highly unlikely. For Mizzou, this puts the Tigers into conversation for Dayton as a play-in candidate before closing the season with a challenge against John Calipari’s Arkansas coming to town. A win in that one and Missouri is likely a lock, but a loss could put the Tigers near the cut line as its resume metrics are not outstanding."


ESPN: Bubble Watch
"Oklahoma Sooners
Updated: March 8, 9:26 a.m.

The Sooners are a last-minute Bubble Watch entry after knocking off Texas on the road Saturday in overtime. It was the fourth consecutive victory for Porter Moser's squad -- sixth in eight, a stretch that includes four of this season's five Quadrant 1 wins. The forecast models are dubious OU can make a real case for an at large (the consensus odds sit at just 12%), but given the chaos around the SEC bubble, and the fact that the conference projects to send 11 teams according to Bracketology, this team is suddenly on the radar.

Next game: SEC tournament first round vs. South Carolina (Wednesday)"

 

[Jccouger]

2 more wins I think we get in, considering other teams ahead of us will certainly fall flat.

 

[BoulderSooner]

2 and 1 makes things interesting .. 3-1 and i think OU is in . .

 

[TEvans4Three]

Here is my Bubble Watch chart:



These are the team comp rankings of the bottom Bubblers in http://www.bracketmatrix.com/


*Edit to add Tarvik, WAB, and my composite score which is just an average of (Torvik+NET+KP+WAB)/4 and it is sorted by that.
**Also added a cut-off for the 10 spots open for these at-large bids (5 11-seeds)

 

[TEvans4Three]

 

[SunshinePumper]

Saint Louis needs to win the A10 with VCU losing before the final imo
Need Utah State to win the MWC - New Mexico, SDSU need to lose early?

Need SMC to beat Santa Clara late night tonight

Stanford/VT/Cal/SMU all have easy R1 games but need them to lose R2

Need Auburn to not win R2 while we win 2+ games

Need Cincy to lose early.

Miami OH wins the MAC.

Starts with payback on a BAD SC team Wednesday.

 

[CoachTalk]

Control what we can control. Win Wednesday !

 

[Soonerguy06]

I love the way our guys have been playing and think they can def win 2 games in the SEC tourney. Not as optimistic about winning 3 in a row though, sadly. Hope it's enough!

 

[TEvans4Three]

Saint Louis needs to win the A10 with VCU losing before the final imo
Need Utah State to win the MWC - New Mexico, SDSU need to lose early?

Need SMC to beat Santa Clara late night tonight

Stanford/VT/Cal/SMU all have easy R1 games but need them to lose R2

Need Auburn to not win R2 while we win 2+ games

Need Cincy to lose early.

Miami OH wins the MAC.

Starts with payback on a BAD SC team Wednesday.

Good list out, like @CoachTalk, @SunshinePumper, and @BoulderSooner and others have stated:

Priority 1 - We need to beat South Carolina.
Priority 2 - We need to beat Texas A&M

Then the List above helps.

I think the thing that forces us in, is winning 3 games.

2 wins, destiny in the air, 3 wins, I think we are in.



One thing the committee has said year over is they do consider how teams are playing to finish the year. Which works in our favor

 

[OULad]

Honestly we are better than Missouri and Auburn and they have both been listed as in recently. So why not I guess.

 

[pnkranger]

Regardless, I would love to see us obliterate SC in the first round and dump Bucky Ball in round 2.

I think we have a chance to make more of a splash in the tournament than A&M, Missouri, Auburn, Texas, and Georgia (and a lot of other teams too). We'll get a look because of how good we're playing, but we need to win two to put the committee to a tough decision.

 

[sooner333]

I think a more recent Lunardi tweet has us in the "next four out" rather than what is I guess the 9-12th teams out like on the tweet in the OP.

 

[TEvans4Three]

I think a more recent Lunardi tweet has us in the "next four out" rather than what is I guess the 9-12th teams out like on the tweet in the OP.

Reminder on this...

Lunardi is ranked 125th out of 189 BracketMatrix submissions on bracketmatrix.com based on a 5-year average.

That being said:



We are 3-0 in the last 3 games against other bubble teams.