Clock Management Was Poor At KSU

[garyeb2]

The chance that two freethrows are made is great than the chance of them scoring.

So I would rather let the defense play it out as would the majority of coaches I would assume

I have to agree with you on this one. An 80% free throw shooter will hit both 64% of the time. A 70% shooter hits both 49% of the time. A 65% shooter about 42% of the time. A defense can pack in and make the offense shoot a 3 pt. shot which for most teams is a much lower chance than shooting free throws.

 

[BCSooners]

hold on man. You can't do percentages like that. Just b/c a guy is 45% FT shooter doesn't mean he has a 45% x 45% chance of making both free throws.

I watch a lot of NBA games and mostly just OU college games. It is very rare to see a coach decide to foul in a one possession game when there is 50+ seconds left.

NBA has 24 second shot clock, not 35. They can also advance to half court with a timeout.

 

[SoonerBounce13]

NBA has 24 second shot clock, not 35. They can also advance to half court with a timeout.

good point. I thought about this after I posted but it doesn't change my stance. If you can get the ball back with 15+ seconds I would let it play out even if you can foul a 50% FT shooter.

 

[Smash Williams]

hold on man. You can't do percentages like that. Just b/c a guy is 45% FT shooter doesn't mean he has a 45% x 45% chance of making both free throws.

That's exactly how you calculate it if they are independent events.

Among the several "hot hand theory" papers I've read that focus on NBA free throw shooting (i.e. there's an old one in which Amos Tversky was one of the authors, which I can find if necessary), none of them have found statistically significant evidence that the outcome of the first free throw influences the outcome of the second free throw.

If you want to argue otherwise in spite of that (perhaps there is a study out there that finds otherwise), it's not as if making the first free throw is going to magically turn a 45% free throw shooter into a 55+% free throw shooter on the second attempt.

I watch a lot of NBA games and mostly just OU college games. It is very rare to see a coach decide to foul in a one possession game when there is 50+ seconds left.

First of all, we're talking about a one-and-one scenario, so the NBA is irrelevant.

Also, a strategy isn't always correct simply because that's it's coaches usually do. On 4th-and-goal from the 2-yard line in the first quarter of a scoreless game, it's almost always statistically correct to go for it, yet most football coaches would settle for a FG. You posted earlier about "if it doesn't work, it looks idiotic." That's the type of warped, results-oriented thinking that pushes coach to make "safe," suboptimal decisions. It's like the hold'em poker player that refuses to raise preflop with AA, because everyone folded the last time he raised with that hand.

 

[Smash Williams]

You won't convince me that it is the optimal strategy.

And good luck doing those numbers in the heat of the game

I'm not saying it's always the optimal strategy. I'm simply saying that you can find circumstances under which it is optimal.

As campbest said, that's why coaches have people that do that type of work for them beforehand.

 

[Smash Williams]

BTW he was 65%+ free throw shooter. The odds of having the chance to foul a 45% shooter is pretty low

I wasn't arguing that it was correct for OU to foul Shane Southwell.

My post was a hypothetical, as was campbest's mention of 45% free throw shooter, meant to demonstrate that "down 2 with :50 with a potential one-and-one foul situation" isn't an automatic "never foul" scenario.

 

[SoonerBounce13]

That's exactly how you calculate it if they are independent events.

Among the several "hot hand theory" papers I've read that focus on NBA free throw shooting (i.e. there's an old one in which Amos Tversky was one of the authors, which I can find if necessary), none of them have found statistically significant evidence that the outcome of the first free throw influences the outcome of the second free throw.

If you want to argue otherwise in spite of that (perhaps there is a study out there that finds otherwise), it's not as if making the first free throw is going to magically turn a 45% free throw shooter into a 55+% free throw shooter on the second attempt.

Exactly, you kind of proved my point. If he makes the first one there is still a 45% chance he makes the second and 55% chance he misses it. Each free throw is its own event.

You posted earlier about "if it doesn't work, it looks idiotic." That's the type of warped, results-oriented thinking that pushes coach to make "safe," suboptimal decisions. It's like the hold'em poker player that refuses to raise preflop with AA, because everyone folded the last time he raised with that hand.

And i don't think there is anything wrong with that.

 

[Smash Williams]

Exactly, you kind of proved my point. If he makes the first one there is still a 45% chance he makes the second and 55% chance he misses it. Each free throw is its own event.

That completely contradicts your previous statement:

hold on man. You can't do percentages like that. Just b/c a guy is 45% FT shooter doesn't mean he has a 45% x 45% chance of making both free throws.

How do you think you it's calculated?

If you have a 45% free throw shooter, and each free throw is an independent event, then the probability of making both is .45*.45=.2025. That's a very basic probability calculation.

 

[SoonerBounce13]

That completely contradicts your previous statement:

How do you think you it's calculated?

If you have a 45% free throw shooter, and each free is an independent event, then the probability of making both is .45*.45=.2025. That's a very basic probability calculation.

I don't think of it that way. If Kendrick perkins is going to the line I'm not going to say he has a 40% chance to make both. I'm going to look at it as he has a 65% chance to make the first and a 65% chance to make the second. I know i'm not making sense :facepalm

If he makes the first he still has a 65% chance of making the second. So you can throw the probablity calcs in the trash.

 

[Smash Williams]

I don't think of it that way. If Kendrick perkins is going to the line I'm not going to say he has a 40% chance to make both. I'm going to look at it as he has a 65% chance to make the first and a 65% chance to make the second. I know i'm not making sense :facepalm

If he makes the first he still has a 65% chance of making the second. So you can throw the probablity calcs in the trash.

We agree: he has a 65% chance of making the first (or a 35% chance of missing it), and he has a 65% chance of making the second (or a 35% chance of missing it). The probability calculation is based on that very assumption.

Perhaps it's easier to understand if you look at all of the possibilities for a two-shot foul (the odds of making both in that scenario or making the first and missing the second are the same as they would be in a one-and-one situation; it's just the other outcomes from missing the first that would be different).

Possible outcomes for a 65% FT shooter:
42.25% of the time he makes both (.65*.65=.4225)
12.25% of the time he misses both (.35*.35=.1225)
22.75% of the time he misses the first and makes the second (.35*.65=.2275)
22.75% of the time he makes the first and misses the second (.65*.35=.2275)

(note that the percentages add up to 100% all possible outcomes)

In other words, there is a 42.25% chance he makes both, a 45.5% chance he makes exactly one of two (as 22.75+22.75=45.5), and a 12.25% chance he misses both.

A 65% free throw shooter makes both less than half the time. 65% isn't too far off from the NCAA average, which is usually in the high 60s. A 69% FT shooter makes both 47.61% of the time. A 37% FT shooter like Andre Drummond only makes both 13.69% of the time.

The basic point is that even the average FT shooter in college basketball (~69%) is going to make both FTs less than half of the time, so someone that's an especially poor FT shooter is even less likely to make both.

 

[SoonerBounce13]

OK i gotcha

 

[campbest]

I heart Smash.

 

[SoonerBounce13]

he is pretty sexy

 

[campbest]

And good luck doing those numbers in the heat of the game

Many of the "new age" staffs have these analytics in place before a game and the ability to change valuations on the fly - no different than a financial valuation model. Will admit, the NBA is much more advanced in this regard, but it is catching on at the collegiate level. Will only become more and more common. Some guy named Brad Stevevns lived by it when Butler was making consecutive runs to the championship game.

 

[garyeb2]

The numbers and the stats are a tool that has some value. However, number crunching is a left brain activity and good coaching is a right brain activity.