OU listed. I think 19-15 gets us in, barely. Need to beat Texas, and go 2-1. 3-1 and we are definitely in
We actually have a one-in-four chance to win our next three games since none of them will be against top-25 schools. As such, I don't see any path to 19-15 getting us on the bubble. We would clearly need to beat one of the better SEC schools to get on the bubble. That would put us at 20-15. I still don't think it will be enough, but we'll at least be in the conversation. 21-15 would mean two wins against the best schools in the SEC. That may very well get us in.
No point in getting too far ahead of ourselves since we also have a good chance of finishing 16-16. Austin is not a difficult place to win ...though we seem to make it difficult.